Betting strategy

[BROWN30]

Just thinking of a way to bet this years derby. I personally believe Big Brown is the best horse so I am thinking about betting it this way. Let me know what you guys think.


$1 Tri
A
B
ALL

A
ALL
B

A
C
ALL

A
ALL
C

A
D
ALL

A
ALL
D

A
E
ALL

A
ALL
E

A
F
ALL

A
ALL
F

That is keying Big Brown on top with keying 5 other horses in 2nd and 3rd with all. $170 (considering both fillies are interred and only one runs, 19 horses total) What do you guys think about the strategy?

[Charliedog]

How about if he breaks down or quiets at the 1/8 pole? In the Fla Derby, while he did win by 5L he was going from 12 feet off the rail to 20? The field was soft. and he had a clear run. If he runs under 1:11 for 6F he finished at the 1/8 pole.

While all horses will run with 126 pounds, it's changes when trying to run in the front then it' does from behind.

[BROWN30]

Well if he loses then I guess I lose my bets. To me this race is full of slow horses. Big Brown seems to be the fastest, most talented horse in the race. It doesnt matter if you use brisnet,beyers, PF numbers, sheets, they all say Big Brown is the fastest horse and it really isnt that close.

[Nijinsky]

The best advise I could give you is to remember that you still have over a week to go.
I wouldn't decide for certain how to wager on this race until the day of, even though you may know well in advance which horses you will include in your wagers.

You will have a better idea of how things are shaping up coming up to
race day as things develop over the next week.
Do your handicapping early, and work in any factors you may have noted as you get closer to the race.

The possibility exists, too, that Big Brown may take a dislike to all the hoopla on Derby Day. This, also, applies to any other horse going to post.

Betting too early on this race, provided you have the opportunity to wager as late as 5-10 minutes to post, is not a good idea and best avoided.

Good luck to you!

[scottsdad]

Well if he loses then I guess I lose my bets. To me this race is full of slow horses. Big Brown seems to be the fastest, most talented horse in the race. It doesnt matter if you use brisnet,beyers, PF numbers, sheets, they all say Big Brown is the fastest horse and it really isnt that close.

BROWN---IF BIG BROWN LOSES I WILL BE TEARING UP MY TICKETS RIGHT ALONG SIDE YOU. EVERYONE WANTS TO FIND THAT 15/1 SHOT ON DERBY DAY AND IT IS EASY TO LOOK PAST THE WINNER. I WOULD BE SILLY TO GUARANTEE HIM AS A LOCK,BUT THE FACT IS HE IS THE BEST HORSE IN THE RACE.ALTHOUGH HE IS LIGHTLY RACED,HE HAS BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF SPECTACULAR.I SEE NOTHING WRONG WITH YOUR TICKET.LET YOUR B-C-D-E- HORSES RUN 2ND AND 3RD---YOU WILL STILL CASH A NICE TICKET.THE WISE MEN WILL BE KEYING HIM WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR WAGERS.GOOD LUCK.

[BROWN30]

Scottsdad,

Thanks! I hope Big Brown wins by 5 and we both can cash some nice tickets. Alot of people are trying to toss him because he will be the favorite, but personally that makes no sense to me. I mean I would rather make $500 then lose $300. To me you handicap the race and if you fall on the favorite so be it. Either bet it or pass the race, not settle for a 20-1 just because of the odds.

[Jerfi]

I believe I have to disagree just a bit on the odds question.

If a horse has an apparent chance of 5/1 ... and going off at 20/1 .. it's a bet, regardless of other considerations ... unless the dead favorite is 1/5 or such... then pass the race... again, unless that favorite is vulnerable.

I would consider ANY favorite in the KY Derby VERY vulnerable. All you have to do is look at how many favorites have won in the last 30 years.

The PRIME FACTOR in the KY derby is the 126 pounds at the distance. None of these horses have carried that, in a race, with perhaps 1 or 2 rare exceptions... not yet knowing who will be running.

[sdi1958]

I think your best bet to key BB and assuming you like everyone else has (4) other horses you like. Is the $1 Tri Key to WIN over (8) horses. I myself will be playing all (5) of the horses I think have a shot to win. In additon I'll be able to add (4) other horses to go with my other (4) for a cost of $56 for each ticket. That totals up to $280. I can't remember the last time a KY Derby TRI came back under $300 for $1. If I can't pick a winner out of (5) horses, I don't deserve to win.

[scottsdad]

Scottsdad,

Thanks! I hope Big Brown wins by 5 and we both can cash some nice tickets. Alot of people are trying to toss him because he will be the favorite, but personally that makes no sense to me. I mean I would rather make $500 then lose $300. To me you handicap the race and if you fall on the favorite so be it. Either bet it or pass the race, not settle for a 20-1 just because of the odds.

I COULD NOT AGREE MORE--BTW--IN A 20 HORSE FIELD I STILL THINK WE WILL GET DECENT ODDS.

[scottsdad]

I believe I have to disagree just a bit on the odds question.

If a horse has an apparent chance of 5/1 ... and going off at 20/1 .. it's a bet, regardless of other considerations ... unless the dead favorite is 1/5 or such... then pass the race... again, unless that favorite is vulnerable.

I would consider ANY favorite in the KY Derby VERY vulnerable. All you have to do is look at how many favorites have won in the last 30 years.

The PRIME FACTOR in the KY derby is the 126 pounds at the distance. None of these horses have carried that, in a race, with perhaps 1 or 2 rare exceptions... not yet knowing who will be running.

I THINK WHAT MR BROWN WAS SAYING--AND I AGREE--IS THAT--IF YOU LIKE BIG BROWN AND HE IS 5/2 AND NOT 5/1--ITS INSANE TO TOSS HIM OFF YOUR TICKET.

[BROWN30]

Jerfi,

In the past 30 years how many of those favorites should have been favorites? Those betting favorites also lost to faster horses than Big Brown is running against. Two examples: I believe aftleet alex was favorite or Bellamy Road, but either way Aftleet alex didn't have the greatest trip and came up short to a long short, but proved much the best horse the rest of the year. Giacomo who won would look fast in this years running of the race compared to alot of them. I believe Bellamy road injured himself in the race. When Thunder Gulch won he was a great overlay due to a bad perfomance at Keenland. Timber Country and Serena Song entry was the favorite, That was a good bet against due to the fact that Serena Song was a filly for one and two had big question marks about the distance. Timber Country you could have made a big case for, but he seemed to get in traffic and did lose the Juvinile I believe at Churchill. Thunder Gulch was a fast horse who won G1, G2 who just had a bad showing so he was well worth betting. SweetNorthernSaint was a good bet against when Barbaro was undefeated and physically imposing. Even when Point Given lost he lost to a lesser horse, but not by much. Theres no Monarchos in this field, nor is there a congaree, hell might not even be a invisible ink. So my point is this is a bunch of slow horses running against a Monster who is fast and had the pace advantage in his favor and will get the jump on everyone else just as long as he breaks good.

[Jerfi]

Well, we each view the Derby (and all other races) from different angles. Since I do not know who will be 'in,' nor what post they will draw, it's just fanciful for me to speculate on how to bet the race, as of yet.

Suppose BB draws post 20. How will that factor into your computations? Or, do you think he is so good that it wouldn't matter? I think the traditional thinking is that post 20 is worth a minus 8 lengths, or some such. Does that matter? Is he that good?

The only way I could play the trifecta in the Derby, this far ahead, would be to simply box my top 8 picks at $336 for 1 ..... and let them run as they will. Even then, you can almost assuredly count on a couple of those having a bad day, and one of the 25/1 horses having the race of his life, for a spoiler.

I will CONFIDENTLY say this: BB WILL NOT WIN from outside gate 10.

[danstep43]

Hey J....While I agree we need to wait for PP draw next Wed.......Post 10 is considered very favorable in the derby...I would go as far as 14 and even 15....the last post in the main gate and the first post in the auxiliary gate as very good posts....the run down the stretch for the first quarter is long enough for outside horses to get position...to me, the worst posts are the inside ones...cuz you either have to gun out to get position or you have to take back and race thru traffic....so in BB's case.....I think anything 4-16 would be advantageous

[Jerfi]

Well, if you throw out the first 3 gates, and the last 4 ... then BB has a 3 in 5 chance of getting a 'good 'gate'. With BB's speed, though, I wouldn't be fretted about any of the inside gates.

[danstep43]

yessir....I only feel that 1-3 and 17-20 would annoy the connections.....the prob. with being inside is IF he doesn't break alertly or stumbles a bit then he will have to USE him hard to put him in contention...whereas, if her were outside....he has options......from 1994-2004...5-10 came from the aux gate and won

[BROWN30]

BB post really doesn't matter to me. I personally think the post position in the derby is very overrated. Great horses can overcome a post position as BB did in the florida derby. Granted I would rather him draw post 6-15, but I will take what I get.

[cashcall]

Playing BB off the board.

[scottsdad]

Playing BB off the board.

TEAR-TEAR--THATS CASHCALL RIPPING UP HIS LOSING TICKETS LEAVING BIG BROWN OUT.

[FastG45]

"Big Brown" has never been headed in a race, I know it's only been 3 races but he’s done things in three races horses just aren’t supposed to do. He has got the longest stride that reminds me of some of those old black and white stills of past "Triple Crown" winners. His speed figures are light years above any of the others. He’s been called a freak by knowledgeable horsemen. A Genetics expert claims he has an extraordinary heart, a product of his broodmare sire Nureyev. He’s inbred to Damascus and Round Table. Many think of him as a speed horse, but I think he can rate kindly on or off the pace. I really hope that he not only wins the Derby but the whole enchilada (The Triple Crown). The Industry really needs it, it would be so good for horse racing!!! Seattle Slew, the last surviving Triple Crown winner, died at Hill 'N Dale Farm in Lexington, Ky., at age 28. Seattle Slew's death came on the 25th anniversary of his Kentucky Derby victory.
We need a "Triple Crown" WINNER, it's been 30 years and that is just to long. If anyone can do it this year, "Big Brown" can.

I'm going to key him up and down in the exacta, the trifecta, and the super with the four Dual Qualifier's. I should key him just on top and save some money, but just in case I'm wrong, and I'm wrong more times then I'm right, my back up bet will be to box the Dual Qualifier's in the exacta, Tri, and super which is dumb because I'm pretty sure Brown will hit the board. Also, I might change something after I see the posts, the weather, and what I see in the padock 10 or 15 minutes before post time, but we can't wait too close to post time on a big day like this or you might get shut out.

Good Luck All, Can't wait to see what happens!!! GO "Big Brown" !!!


P.S. His feet have been cold the last three or four weeks, I hope they are Derby morning.

[deltasports]

WELL I DONT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WHAT I SHOULD DO OR ALL THOSE OTHER THINGS. I HAVE A FUTURE BET ON BIG BROWN FROM THE SECOND POOL AT 6-1..I MIGHT MAKE A SHOW BET ON HIM..TO COVER MY $1000 FUTURE TICKET..

I AM STILL SICK OVER THE FACT THAT I WAS THE IST ONE TO CONTACT PAT REYNOLDS ABOUT MAKING AN OFFER..THE ONLY MISTAKE I MADE WAS NOT TO GIVE THE OWNER THE OPTION TO SELL 100% OR 75% OR 50% WHICH I HAVE DONE IN THE PAST..AT LEAST I WAS THE IST & ONLY ONE AT TAMPA BAY DOWNS TO BET BIG BROWN THE DAY HE BROKE HIS MAIDEN LAST AUGUST..STEVE RICHARDSON & PADUA WOULD BEAR WITNESS TO THAT DAY...gah;

[cashcall]

TEAR-TEAR--THATS CASHCALL RIPPING UP HIS LOSING TICKETS LEAVING BIG BROWN OUT.

i'm playing that speed figure streeeeeetched ooooouuuuuuut at aaaaaaa
miiiiiiiilllle & a quartttteerrrrrr wiiiiitth looots ooof ppppaaaaace offff offf 333333 lifffe timmmme staaaartsssss.

[scottsdad]

CASHCALL--THATS WHY ITS HORSERACING--VERY UNPREDICTABLE.CERTAINLY I AM NO GENIUS--I RIP UP LOTS OF TICKETS,
BUT IMHO---BIG BROWN WINS FOR FUN--GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR BETS.ds:

[vicmac]

Playing BB off the board.
you and legend will be crying....that dam big bad big brown coolist horse in the whole dam town faster than a track is long.....bf.

[danstep66]

[quote=scottsdad]CASHCALL--THATS WHY ITS HORSERACING--VERY UNPREDICTABLE.CERTAINLY I AM NO GENIUS--I RIP UP LOTS OF TICKETS,
BUT IMHO---BIG BROWN WINS FOR FUN--GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR BETS.ds:[/;;' quote]big brown was given to me before he won both of his races at gulfstream. I BET him both times, but watching hom bear out in the stretch run in the florida derby makes me wonder if he was a little green or perhaps cant handle a longer distance.

[BROWN30]

I personally think Big Brown appeard to bear out in the floriday derby because A) he ran very fast early, doing something that no other horse has ever done (break for 12 post), B) He ran fast in the middle of the race C) he ran pretty fast at the end, so yes he was probably a little tired considering it was only his 2nd start of the year. He will be fitter for this race and he simply faster then these other horses. All he has to do is run back to his 106 beyer or his brisnet, or his PF numebr, or his TGraph number and he wins for fun, unless somebody improves drastically which doesnt happen often. IF Big Brown improves he wins by 10.

[deltasports]

[QUOTE=FastG45][SIZE=3]"Big Brown" has never been headed in a race, I know it's only been 3 races but he’s done things in three races horses just aren’t supposed to do.
================================================== ========

I JUST NOW HAPPENED TO SEE THE ABOVE POST,& WANT TO ADD MY 2 CENTS,,,IN BIG BROWN'S 2ND RACE OF HIS CAREER WHICH WAS MARCH 5TH 2008 AT GULFSTREAM WHEN THEY TOOK IT OFF THE TURF HE WENT THE MILE IN 1:35 3/5..IT WAS HIM & 4 OTHER HORSES...

AT THE 1/4 HE WAS 2ND A 1/2 BEHIND THE LEADER
AT THE 1/2 HE WAS 1 LENGTH BEHIND THE LEADER
AT THE 3/4 HE WAS A HEAD BEHIND THE LEADER
AT THE TOP OF THE LANE HE WAS 6 IN FRONT & WON BY 12 3/4

SPLITS WERE 22 4/5 45 1/5 1:09 4/5 1:35 3/5 tro(

[BROWN30]

You are going to get anywhere from 2-1 - 3-1 on Big Brown in the derby. A few months from now people will be begging to get those type of odds on him. The horse is a monster running against goats. I just have to figure out what goats to put underhim.

[djunior]

You are going to get anywhere from 2-1 - 3-1 on Big Brown in the derby. A few months from now people will be begging to get those type of odds on him. The horse is a monster running against goats. I just have to figure out what goats to put underhim.

granted he is a monster, I am not going to call the horses goats!

[diamondjoe]

My theory on Big Brown is this: If he improves on those paired 106 figures, then he unless he has to maneuver over 15-20 horses to his inside, then he wins. He's still young and lightly raced, so there's a possibility he will.
If he doesn't, (again lightly raced and he didn't really beat much at maneuver), then he he crosses the finish line sometime between the Derby and the Belmont.
The question becomes this: are you willing to play him at about 4-1 or less, which is probably what you will get? (Anyone remember a 5/2 favorite named Bellamy Road a few years back?)

Speaking of Bellamy Road, it appears that we will probably be looking at another "Giacomo" type winner, as all the main contenders seem to have a lot of questions that have yet to be answered.
My list of top "price" contenders would probably include the following:
1. Court Vision seems to be contender if there happens to be enough speed to accommodate his running style.
2. Despite the fact that his connections probably shouldn't have run him in the blue grass, Pyro will probably go off at a "fair" price at least, considering he has already established himself as a classy horse.
3. Adriano appears to have a bright future as a grass horse, but then that's what everyone said about Barbaro.
4. Any race in which the position of the field never makes much of change the entire race, is usually safe to throw out based on a heavily biased track. If that's the case, Atoned, or more importantly Denis of Cork, are worth a long glance before tossing.
5. I would also include Colonel John, but it's unlikely you'll get much of price considering he's unproven on dirt, but I have a friend who claims that he is our best chance of having a triple crown winner.
Anyways, I would be curious as to every else's ideas on who has a chance of winning at a possibly huge price.

[deltasports]

Fyi>> Bellamy Road Should Have Never Started In The Derby.i Told George & The Rest Of The Crew It Was Not A Wise Move To Do..i Wont Go Into The Reason Or Reasons But Imo He Was Not Ready & It Could Only Do Him In..& It Did

[BROWN30]

Diamondjoe,

I'm not trying to knock your picks, because anything can happen in horse racing, but IF court vision wins the derby he would probably be the slowest horse ever to win. Comparing Adriano and Barbaro is like comparing apples and oranges. Barbaro was a grade 1 dirt winner who ran fast. Adriano bombed on dirt and never ran fast. Now I will say for the price and his breeding I would give him a shot before court vision on the win end. Colonel John I would love to love, but he just seems so slow to me as well. Who knows maybe he will improve 12-15 beyer points to hit the board, because thats what its going to take.

[diamondjoe]

Diamondjoe,

I'm not trying to knock your picks, because anything can happen in horse racing, but IF court vision wins the derby he would probably be the slowest horse ever to win. Comparing Adriano and Barbaro is like comparing apples and oranges. Barbaro was a grade 1 dirt winner who ran fast. Adriano bombed on dirt and never ran fast. Now I will say for the price and his breeding I would give him a shot before court vision on the win end. Colonel John I would love to love, but he just seems so slow to me as well. Who knows maybe he will improve 12-15 beyer points to hit the board, because thats what its going to take.

Points well taken Brown30. That's what make this a great hobby. The less we agree, the better the price one of us will get on the horse that actually does win. Best of luck to you on whoever you decide to go with.