Derby Futures This Week

[Steve]

Saw this post on a public Forum...Do you have any plans to wager the futures? Do you agree with this writers thoughts?

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I wouldnt go anywhere near First Samurai. Maybe if he was 100/1. But this is a horse who has looked pretty poor in both one turn routes he's been. Odds are he wont even be in the Derby gate let alone start at less than 8/1. The only way I can see making a wgare on a Derby horse in Jan at 8/1 is if you're convinced that he'll be even money by Derby day.

I also wouldnt take 9/1 on Bluegrass Cat. The horse was just sick last week and Pletcher doesnt seem that high on him. At 20/1 I might start looking.

Brother Derek is an interesting play but I think his value will be wagered out in this pool. He's the hot horse, he's on a streak and he will get bet because of recency. I'd troll around and wait on a price with him. 10/1 isnt bad but its not great, also he's now been moved to 8/1.

An interesting anomaly I would look at is Lawyer Ron. It has to be a misprint but he's 200/1 at Bally's. If I could get anything over 40/1 I might take it.

Folklore is still 100/1, I would take her for a few reasons. The Santa Ynez proved very little she was short on fitness and will be much better next out. She will love the distance and Lukas is the kind of trainer who will give it a shot. Dont be surprised to see her taking on the boys once she gets going. 100/1 is a nice price for a solid horse.

I'm interested by the 100/1 on Stonesider but that's just buying a lottery ticket.

The best value of the big guns in my opinion is Private Vow at 10/1. Its a decent price for a horse as accomplished as he.

But we'll have to wait to see what the official Derby pool reveals. Often the best value if found in the mutuel field in pool #1

[Chuck]

I would love to see more people's intelligent thoughts on the Derby and pre-races. You know, most of these races offer excellent value up to and including the Derby itself. I don't play futures at all as I have enough trouble picking the winner two minutes out let alone 5 months out. But the information here can be great for wagering on the stepping stones. I know I always make a mint on the California stakes leading to the Derby.

If you find other posts and put them up Steve, it might help a lot of new players and old timers like myself as well. Of course, I will share my thoughts, whatever value they have, as the pre-season progresses.

[Steve]

Will do Chuck..

Steve
TW

[Steve]

CDSN Handicappers' Early Top 20 Kentucky Derby 132 Selections


http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_coverage/derby_news/top_20.html

[Steve]

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_coverage/derby_future_wager/

[Steve]

UK Bookie

http://www.coral.co.uk/sb.go?page=grouppage&groupid=114296&lang=20&sid=20&ms=MS&type=0

[Steve]

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/01/21/sports/s102932S39.DTL

[Mister Sanderson]

Stevie Wonderboy at 10-1 is the only thing that remotely interests me in this pool, that is, if he can hold around this. He was compromised by Bro Derek lone lead 4 horse field.. We all know the Derby is around 17 to 20 horses per year, he'll have his pace to run into. I think he's quality, and I know his trainer is.... that is, if everything works out and he gets to the first saturday in one piece.. like the rest of this bunch.. futures in my estimation not such a good bet... but good discussion.

[ziadierulestampa]

Future Book This!!!!
Bluegrass Cat Is The Best 3 Year Old In The Country.....
Pletcher,johnny V Have Won Everything Else,this Is Their
Year,and Those Of You Who Do Not Get On Board,will Be
Left At The Station.:

[ziadierulestampa]

I would love to see more people's intelligent thoughts on the Derby and pre-races. You know, most of these races offer excellent value up to and including the Derby itself. I don't play futures at all as I have enough trouble picking the winner two minutes out let alone 5 months out. But the information here can be great for wagering on the stepping stones. I know I always make a mint on the California stakes leading to the Derby.

If you find other posts and put them up Steve, it might help a lot of new players and old timers like myself as well. Of course, I will share my thoughts, whatever value they have, as the pre-season progresses.
BLUEGRASS CAT WILL WIN THE DERBY,GET ON BOARD WHILE THE ODDS ARE STILL HIGH!

[elwood]

Lawyer Ron 20/1 has caught my interest. He was very impressive in the Risen Star. He's unbeaten on the dirt. I think his next start will be the Southwest at Oaklawn.(Feb 20) Should face toughest test yet. We'll see.

[Mister Sanderson]

Right Elwood,

He has shocked me.. I saw him run this summer at Ellis.. I actually beat him earlier last year routinely leaving him out of my pick 3's and 4's. And all of a sudden, I was talking to my friend in Lexington and he said he won over an allowance group by 10, i looked at the form and was suprised.. then i saw he was back in and waxed another stakes field,, i read the charts.. i can't believe this is the same animal... he is very intriguing... i like wonderboy, but this is a great option.... i respect holthus...

[ranchosantiago]

Dear Steve,

I don't bother too much about the Oaks but they ranked my horse at 30 -1 to my surprise. I know my horse is good but I was surprised to see her in the Oak future, WOW. Check out the gallery I posted my Circle Photo. I am humbled by this and I just want to explain to you all that I just want to share the experince with you. I will temporary sign off just so I can concentrate with her future.

My Pick for the Day :

Bay Meadows: Right from the horses mouth, he's training good and spotted well for graduation, hopefully.


Race 9: Robertson Blvd.

Good Luck to All !

[Steve]

ranchosantiago,

Thanks for the Pick! We will have our hopes with you today. Must be me but I could not locate that picture. I will get the IT to help me later.

What horse is yours in the future. I want to put a few bucks down today.

Steve
TW

[horsepunk]

What about the filly Wild Wonder? Was she not the best of the juvenile fillies at the Breeder's Cup? Even with a bad trip she came flying. It seems to me she should get the distance and pay a good price. What about it??

[Steve]

Horsepunk,

I think you are correct in your observation, but like any race it may be a tough hill to climb.

Steve

[vtbob]

After watching the results of the last few KD's, I'm pretty happy with getting 3/1 on "all others"

[ziadierulestampa]

Stevie Wonderboy at 10-1 is the only thing that remotely interests me in this pool, that is, if he can hold around this. He was compromised by Bro Derek lone lead 4 horse field.. We all know the Derby is around 17 to 20 horses per year, he'll have his pace to run into. I think he's quality, and I know his trainer is.... that is, if everything works out and he gets to the first saturday in one piece.. like the rest of this bunch.. futures in my estimation not such a good bet... but good discussion.
WHY DONT YOU GO VISIT THIS HORSE ON THE FARM,HE WILL BE THERE A
WHILE.
YOU GOT THE NERVE TO KNOCK ME FOR BEING ON THE BLUEGRASS CAT
BANDWAGON,WHEN THIS IS THE HORSE YOU WERE TOUTING,THE EARLY
FAVORITE UNTIL HE GOT HURT,THE 2 YEAR OLD CHAMPION.
NOW ITS LAWYER RON YOU LIKE?
WHO WILL IT BE NEXT WEEK AFTER HE GETS BEAT IN ARKANSAS?

[easyluckyed]

ziadieman is right.heres a guy knocking him for touting us bluegrass cat,when
he was pushing steveie wonderboy before he got hurt.so now its lawyer ron
that hes put the jinx on.
I think eifels posting says it best.why do we need a human interest story in
order to root for a horse.my favorite horses all were a product of me cashing
big tickets on them.if we use sandersons logic,secretaariat would have been
a very unpopular horse in the 70s,as he came from money,(breeding & ownership wise).
I dont think bluegrass cat or Lawyer ron will win the derby,I am touting
Scanlons Song,who I just got 200-1 on at Ballys in Vegas.

[Mister Sanderson]

you will see that I thought Wonderboy at the time was the best price, i expecting him to improve with distance.. how can u predict getting hurt... not a strong argument sir.. i was just pointing out Lawyer Ron as a nice example of a horse that has blossomed freakishly almost... and yes, he does have comparatively a modest pedigree.. Personally, i have never played the pre-Derby pools because i think its like buying a lotto ticket.. and i dont play lotto.. when i think about the Derby i think of it from a handicapping standpoint only, that is, i wait until i see the race on paper to decide who i like.. if i see 20 entries and there are 8 speed-only horse, im not gonna go bet on Bluegrass Cat because it probably wont favor his style.. i'll probably end up with a pick 3 or 4 ticket that has some closers in it...NO, im not just gonna "homer-out" because Bluegrass Cat is in the race, and he's gonna win because "I said so from the start." but i hope you do, cause im gonna get your money too if i hit it.. put your inflated ego aside, sir..

[Exciting Story]

Last year, DRF had these ads for the futures bet with pictures of suckers. Turns out that one after another of the highly-touted future-pool favs got injured. Giacomo eventually paid almost exactly the same as the best future-pool payout. The futures bet WAS the sucker bet.

Who in their right mind would have picked War Emblem before the Illinois Derby, or Charismatic before the Lexington? We all like horse betting because we can get value on our wagers. Considering the probability is bad of ever making it to the starting gate, there is no value in futures bets. There just isn't enough information to justify the low odds (30-to-1 and so).

[deltasports]

I LIKE KEYED ENTRY IN THE GOTHAM STAKES AT AQUEDUCT SATURDAY AS I HAVE HIM IN THE DERBY FUTURE POOL #1 @ 52-1a:

[Mister Sanderson]

WHY DONT YOU GO VISIT THIS HORSE ON THE FARM,HE WILL BE THERE A
WHILE.
YOU GOT THE NERVE TO KNOCK ME FOR BEING ON THE BLUEGRASS CAT
BANDWAGON,WHEN THIS IS THE HORSE YOU WERE TOUTING,THE EARLY
FAVORITE UNTIL HE GOT HURT,THE 2 YEAR OLD CHAMPION.
NOW ITS LAWYER RON YOU LIKE?
WHO WILL IT BE NEXT WEEK AFTER HE GETS BEAT IN ARKANSAS?

I see Ziadie is banned, but I had to do it... Knock a guy (me) who liked a horse to improve off his fantastic Bred. Cup Juvenile win because he got HURT? and knock me because I chose Lawyer Ron as my next substitute and didn't follow the herd of "chalkeaters anonymous" with Bluegrass Cat. Well, this is what I like to call poetic justice. Raise a glass, gents, because occasionally, and I do mean seldom at best, the GOOD GUY wins!!! AH.........that goes down smooth..bf.

[mister zesterhouse]

what will pt odds be? remember smarty went off at 9-2