Derby Talk

[Mister Stigg]

Well, I have lots of questions going in my mind for discussion(before today, I thought I had things narrowed down), so where to start? 1. Let's start with how I'm amazed at the form of the horses coming from CA at Oaklawn. I mean, most horses that run well at Keeneland do not run well on dirt surfaces, and vice versa, but that doesn't seem to be the case with the CA synthetic tracks. I was originally thinking the 3 year olds racing in CA weren't that good. Now I'm thinking that maybe I was wrong.

2. I'm not giving up on Pyro. I told myself at one point today that maybe he has been beating not so good of horses at FG, that he might be the horse to key underneath in the exotics in the Derby, but then I remembered two things. a. I'm not attempting to quote, but I'm pretty sure Steve A alluded to the fact that he didn't feel like he had to win the Blue Grass. b. Pyro beat Z Fortune by2 convincing lengths in the Risen Star. Z fortune ran a bang up race today at Oaklawn, after being wide throughout(looked like maybe 5 wide at times).
3. Big Brown is probably the best horse, but if he, War Pass, Recapture the Glory, Gayego, and the other speed types ensure a hot pass(and it looks like pace will be plenty), it might be hard for any of these to stay on for 1 1/4 mile. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if Big Brown still best horsed them.
4. For angles, I might look at what horses have shown an affinity for Cd, without dismissing the CA horses.
5. I like Smooth Air, Court Vision, and Visionaire underneath.

[Mister Stigg]

1.How fast will the pace be? Will the race fall apart? Can it be another Giacomo year for the likes of horses like Court Vision, Visionaire, and Smooth Air?
2. Can Asmussen run 1-2?
3. Does Big Brown settled clear wide down the backstretch and lay in wait about mid pack and then monster off, or will he be too closs to a hot pace?

[ironmikejones]

the pace should be a hot one. pyro/anak nakal/blackberry road(very disappointed in)/court vision all closers that have won at churchill. don't know if all these will be there but pyro should get the trip he wants imo. i want to see how colonel john trains on the dirt. big brown looked impressive last out but so did curlin. my top picks so far are:

1 pyro
2 colonel john
3 big brown
4 blackberry road

[cashcall]

1.How fast will the pace be? Will the race fall apart? Can it be another Giacomo year for the likes of horses like Court Vision, Visionaire, and Smooth Air?
2. Can Asmussen run 1-2?
3. Does Big Brown settled clear wide down the backstretch and lay in wait about mid pack and then monster off, or will he be too closs to a hot pace?



I hear that Bob Black Jack,Recapturetheglory,Gayego,War Pass are going to be up close & chatty with Big Brown right up till the 8 fl. & the possiblity of a rabbit still exist's.

All that is left for me is to wait on the post draw before i decelerate accordingly.

Imho Big Brown will join:Bellamy Road,Sweetnorthernsaint,Bandini just to name a few who hit big figs before the dance not to mention other derby trends as well.
Derby is shaping up to be Life Changing $$$ for sure.::;

[FastG45]

Bob Black Jack will wear blinkers in the Derby.

[cashcall]

From DRF:

Here are the horses that raced in the Derby off only three lifetime starts (1900-2006)
2007 - Curlin - third
2006 - Showing Up - sixth
1999 - Desert Hero - 13th, Valhol (buzz) - 15th
1992 - Thyer - 13th
1990 - Pendleton Riddge - 13th
1986 - Vernon Castle - 15th
1982 - Wavering Monarch - 12th
1946 - Rippey - 10th
1942 - Fairy Manah - 13th
1915 - Regret - first

[deltasports]

"RIPPEY" WAS ONE OF THE TOP SPRINTERS IN THE COUNTRY tro(

[FastG45]

Court Vision had a nice work at Churchill Downs this morning.

He went in 0:46.20 Breezing for 4f.

[Dr. K]

I haven't been keeping a real close watch on the Derby trail this year and am still very undecided, but did have a chance to go back and watch some of the preps. Big Brown looks like the real deal, but are 3 races enough? He could be a freak. Pyro definitely didn't like the poly or need a win, so can we throw that race out? The horse that got my attention was Colonel John. Don't usually like the left coast horses come Derby day, but this colt seems to have a big kick. All his races I believe have been on the fake stuff....(gawd I hate that mess), so can this guy actually run on real dirt? What say those in the know?

[kflickster]

Im not feeling alot of love for Tale Of Ekati in the discussions on these forums.Is there a glaring weakness that this horse has that I have missed?

[FastG45]

Is there a glaring weakness that this horse has that I have missed?

Maybe it's because he beat a horse that had a broken leg.

[danstep43]

that was funny GAry.....lolol

Hey KFLICKSTER,,,,,,,,maybe you should post in the given name thread so we can learn your given name...I FOR ONE AM USING AKATI....he is a DUAL QUALIFIER AND I truly feel we haven't seen his best race YET.......

[FastG45]

Wood Memorial final time and final three-eighths were as slow as it gets. Prado took off him to ride a horse who ran awful in his only dirt start. But like you say he is a Dual Qualifier so I have to put him in there.

I'll give him credit for running his second quarter in :22 4/5 over that dead track and going on to win.

[kflickster]

I lliked what I saw out of the horse before the Wood.I had the Trifecta with him and War Pass 1st and 2nd.I know the time was slow,but I like his stalking style of running.I dont know if I will use him in the Derby until I see his post position.Secretariat could come back from the dead and I wouldnt bet him out of the 18,19,or 20 hole.

[scottsdad]

I lliked what I saw out of the horse before the Wood.I had the Trifecta with him and War Pass 1st and 2nd.I know the time was slow,but I like his stalking style of running.I dont know if I will use him in the Derby until I see his post position.Secretariat could come back from the dead and I wouldnt bet him out of the 18,19,or 20 hole.
I WOULD BET BIG RED STARTING FROM THE PARKING LOT.

[danstep43]

you could bet Secretariat even if they held him in the gate for the first 100 yards

[scottsdad]

you could bet Secretariat even if they held him in the gate for the first 100 yards

TELL BIG BROWN NOBODY WINS FROM THE 12 HOLE AT GP.

[kflickster]

I should clarify that Secretariat was my favorite horse of all time.Thats how much I hate those far outside posts.

[scottsdad]

Kflickster--ditto For Me--secretariat Is My Favorite Also.

[Tassey25]

Freakazoid is the best IMO :D and maybe Camel Point will shine in HW R4 on Saturday.

[scottsdad]

Freakazoid is the best IMO :D and maybe Camel Point will shine in HW R4 on Saturday.

TASSEY--PLEASE DONT TELL PEOPLE WHEN OUR HORSES ARE RUNNING.WE DONT WANT TO KILL THE ODDS.

[Tassey25]

Sorry I won't put my entire $50 paycheck on the horse and mess up he odds.

Please everyone disregard my comments from earlier The now unnamed horse is no longer running. tu? that better?

[FastG45]

Benny Stutts Jr., the trainer of Smooth Air admits there is one Derby tradition he'll be forced to forgo. "I won't be able to do the walkover from the barn area to the paddock before the race," Stutts said. "I have a hip that needs to be replaced and there is no way I could make it all the way. I'd hate to get halfway there and have to stop." Churchill Downs officials are aware of the situation.
"They said they'll do their best to get me to the paddock in time to saddle my horse, and that's all that I'm interested in," Stutts said. "Naturally I'd love to do the walkover, but there's just no way I could make it unless the vets inject me."

That's pretty funny because why would the Vets inject him and not a people Doctor. If Smooth Air is in the money look for his drug test to come up Dirty, LOL!!

[FastG45]

If Smooth Air is in the money look for his drug test to come up Dirty.

http://www.radioiowa.com/gestalt/go.cfm?objectid=95505D19-F22C-061B-C0953D13B15C6989

[FastG45]

Just another Drugs in Horse Racing article.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/2008/04/26/2008-04-26_sports_drug_world_takes_center_stage_wit-2.html

[deltasports]

[QUOTE=FastG45]Benny Stutts Jr., the trainer of Smooth Air admits there is one Derby tradition he'll be forced to forgo. "I won't be able to do the walkover from the barn area to the paddock before the race," Stutts said. "I have a hip that needs to be replaced and there is no way I could make it all the way. I'd hate to get halfway there and have to stop." Churchill Downs officials are aware of the situation.
"They said they'll do their best to get me to the paddock in time to saddle my horse, and that's all that I'm interested in," Stutts said. "Naturally I'd love to do the walkover, but there's just no way I could make it unless the vets inject me."
================================================== ========
AS FAR AS THE WALK OVER>>ITS A LONG LONG WAY AS I HAVE DONE IT TWICE AND THAT WAS 12 YEARS AGO..
#2 BENNIE WAS JUST KIDDING ABOUT THE VET STICKING HIM!!

[diamondjoe]

Im not feeling alot of love for Tale Of Ekati in the discussions on these forums.Is there a glaring weakness that this horse has that I have missed?

I don't think you're wrong about Tale of Ekati as a contender. He ran down a loose on the lead War Pass, which bodes well if the pace is slow to tepid which may be the case now that war pass is out. How much did that take out of him is the biggest question I would ask, but odds of say 10-1 or so, it may be worth shelling out a few dollars to find out.

[Dr. K]

Well guys, as previously stated, I have not followed the Derby trail very closely, but if Big Brown wins the Derby from the 20 hole with 3 races as a foundation, then I am ready to annoint him as the second coming of Secretariat. This is not the best crop of 3 year olds and BB may very well win, but if he does ....he will indeed be a super horse. On paper and visually he looks the best. 20 hole, 3 races, foot problems and short odds (3-1 maybe) do not constitute a good "win" bet. Hard to leave him out of the tricks though. Best of luck to all!

At the moment, I am torn between Col. John, Pyro, and Smooth Air. Leaning towards the Colonel and his late kick.

[diamondjoe]

A lot of people still think Big Brown can do from the 20 hole. If he does, he will be the first in almost 80 years to do it. After a little bit of studying, the one's that stand out the most, at least on the win end of my super are Colonel John and Tale of Ekati. Denis of Cork also looks to be sitting on a big race, but the 16 hole may cost him a placing, so he goes in the place slot. Adriano also may be compromised, and appears a tad bit inferior to Denis of Cork, so he goes in my show slot. Court Vision seems to be the best of the legimate closers, so he will probably be on the bottom. Super tentatively looks like this:
2/10 with 2/10/16 with 2/10/16/15 with 2/10/16/15/4 Total $16

I'm stilling to figure what to make of Monba (Cowboy Cal is his rabbit), and Pyro (was his last race strictly a conditioner?).

Remember, if by some miracle I happen to be right, you heard it hear first.

Otherwise, I wish everyone the best of luck on what could be a possibly life changing wind fall. $) $) $) ::;

[FastG45]

Can "Big Brown" carry that blazing speed for 1¼ miles? "Bob Black Jack" is the record holder at six furlongs, but that will only get him half way home. Looks to be on the front end dueling with "Big Brown". Last two times Bob had the lead and died to 3rd and 2nd going longer each time. He might hold on for 2nd, 3rd, or 4th this time but I have to put him in there. I think "Big Brown" will be outside of Bob as soon as he catches him from way out there on the Grandstand side and sit right in his hip pocket until it's time to go. "Eight Belles" highly touted filly decided to opt out of the Oaks and tangle with the big boys. Why? Although this feat is not unprecedented - can she be the Belle of this ball? Look what Rags did against a very good group last year in the Belmont even with the bad Robby ride. I don't think she can beat "Big Brown" but if the rest are such a weak group like some suggest then you have to put her in there just in case. "Tale of Ekati", "Court Vision", "Pyro", and "Colonel John" all have the pedigree to get the distance and are the only Dual Qualifier's in the race except for the filly. I think 3 out of 4 of them will be coming late, won't be enough to get "Big Brown" but definitely enough to use as under numbers to round out the Tri and the Super. Maybe one of them might even get second.

So unless it rains or there are scratches I'm going to key "Big Brown" just on top with the 2, 4, 5, 9, 10, and 13 for a $1.00 in the tri and the super, total cost $150.00.

[deltasports]

RE:EIGHT BELLES OR WHATEVER

LARRY DIDNT WANT TO RUN HER>>>>RICK PORTER THE OWNER WANTED TO GO THERE...WHAT A MISTAKE...bh)

THE ABOVE IS MY OPINION ONLY

[King Nati]

Virgin post on the biggest race of the year!Priceless.
Colonel John
Gayego
Smooth Air
Pyro

Big Brown

:cool:

[scottsdad]

Virgin post on the biggest race of the year!Priceless.
Colonel John
Gayego
Smooth Air
Pyro

Big Brown

:cool:

WELCOME ABOARD LARRY---THE WISE MEN ARE GLAD TO SEE YOU.
GOOD LUCK TODAY.

[King Nati]

Virgin post on the biggest race of the year!Priceless.
Colonel John
Gayego
Smooth Air
Pyro

Big Brown

:cool:
Dang!
Don't worry Boss I'll get My mind right.bh)