Harness Race Handicapping Tips

[jerryd]

Does Anyone Have Anything Special They Look At In Past Performances That Indicate A Pacer Is Ready To Win.i've
Noticed Many Times A Horse That Puts Forth A Good Effort
But Had Been Three Wide During The Race And Does Not Win , Will Sometimes Be Right There His Next Time Out.anyone Else Have Anything To Share.
P.s. I Mainly Play Balmoral Park

[jchach]

Welcome to the forum jerry.

John

[scruff11]

i bet balmoral a few times and i found out if you stick with 3or 4 riders you will come out a winner just ask my wife thats the only track she bets and she is killing me

[OTBernie]

I like betting a horse running in the same level or dropping that closed to be 2nd or 3rdin its last race or next to last race. I like them to be at least 3 running positions ,from their finish position, at the half.
The reason I keep the next to last in mind is the horse may ship to another track in the last race while running a qualifying race the one before. There could be other intangibles too like racing up in class last race, you'll have to use discretion.
I love the Meadowlands :)

[Darren]

My dad has success picking horses just by looking at their last three races. If the last race was better than the middle race and the middle race was better than the 3rd race back.. Call it primitive handicapping but it works for him more often than not folks...

[gurujim]

[quote=jerryd]Does Anyone Have Anything Special They Look At In Past Performances That Indicate A Pacer Is Ready To Win.i've
Noticed Many Times A Horse That Puts Forth A Good Effort
But Had Been Three Wide During The Race And Does Not Win , Will Sometimes Be Right There His Next Time Out.anyone Else Have Anything To Share.
P.
IF YOU CAN GO TO YHE TRACK,MY BEST TIP IS TO WATCH THE WARMUPS,ESPECIALLY WHEN THE HORSE IS ON THE BACKSIDE & HARD TO SEE.WATCH FOR A STRONG RUN DURING WARMUP.MANY TIMES YOU WILL SEE A HORSE COMING TO THE GATE & HE IS SO SWEATY YOU THINK HE HAS ALREADY RUN,MANY TIMES THIS MEANS WATCH OUT! HAVEN'T BEEN TO BALMORAL SINCE I LEFT CHICAGO 1973,USE TO BE CALLED LINCOLN FIELDS A THOROUGHBRED TRAINING TRACK. GOOD LUCK.bf.
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[HANK3849]

Thanks for the tips. jerryd I play Balmoral also but have had mixed success. Playing top drivers has worked but it seems some of the top guys have headed for the East Coast because of purse concerns. I live 5 minutes from Balmoral so I go a lot. Play some thoroughbreds also.
If I get any hot tips I'll let you know.

[Srotagtbs]

Here are some tips I've picked up, it's a lot, but it may help.

FUNDAMENTALS and THE OVERLAY TEST
Legendary football coach Vince Lombardi had a remarkable professional coaching record of 135 wins, 35 losses, and 6 ties. He never coached a team to a losing record.
Lombardi stressed the fundamentals. His players played hard and rarely made mistakes. They were like a well-oiled machine, flawless in execution.
Handicapping can be difficult, especially during those streaks when you just can't seem to do anything right. Your favorites break on the first turn, and your overlays never get into the race.
Perhaps you've strayed from the fundamentals.
Here's a checklist of harness handicapping fundamentals:
SPEED
At most tracks, the horse than ran the fastest race in one of its last two starts will win 30 to 40% of the time. On half-mile or five-eighths tracks, closer to 40%.
TRAINERS
When you've narrowed the race down to two horses, the trainer is often the great equalizer. High percentage trainers dominate racing. If you are trying to decide between two horses, one trained by a 5% trainer, and the other by a 20% trainer, guess which horse has a big advantage?
PACE
On half mile and five-eighths tracks, a horse almost has to have the ability to get into striking position with early speed, or a big uncovered brush. Horses that don't race well without cover, or almost always race off the pace, are rarely good bets on the win end. (This is not always the case on one-mile tracks like Balmoral or The Meadowlands, where closers do well.)
POST POSITION
Posts 1 through 5 are dominant on half-mile and five eighths tracks. This doesn't mean that the outside posts are all bad bets. But, a handicapper has to be aware that horses starting from outside posts are usually only worth a win wager if “the price is right.”
THE OVERLAY TEST
It's tough to show a profit betting a lot of favorites. The problem with favorites is simple: Many favorites are underlays (over bet). Let's create a simple scenario to examine this. I call it THE OVERLAY TEST. Say that you handicap the card, and list your top 3 horses in each race. I can give you a simple way to test your selections at your track of choice.
1). See how you would do if you bet every one of your top picks that goes off the favorite to win.
2). See how you would do if you bet every one of your top picks that doesn't go off the favorite to win.
3). See how you would do if you bet every one of your picks (regardless of whether it's your 1 st , 2 nd , or 3 rd pick) that goes off at 4-1 or higher.
4). Overlays. See how you would do if you bet every one of your picks (regardless of whether it's your 1 st , 2 nd , or 3 rd picks) that goes off at least 25% higher than the morning line. 25% is easy to figure using the payoff. A 3-1 shot pays $8.00, 25% higher would be $10.00.
Follow this strategy to check on your picks for a month or more. It may surprise you. Label each category as #1 PLAYS, #2 PLAYS, #3 PLAYS, and #4 PLAYS.
I could be wrong, but I think you'll find that your most profitable category will be either the #3 plays or #4 plays.
Some people need to do this just so they can see that betting the favorites doesn't work. But you'll also see where you strengths are. If may be that your 2 nd and 3 rd choices show a better profit than your top choice.
EXOTICS
Once you've found which categories work best for you, the going gets tougher. Now you have to use your new knowledge in a manner that will produce a profit. I wish I could say that all you have to do is bet to win. Unfortunately, I don't know many big winners who grind out a profit with win bets. The profit is usually in the Exotic pools, such as the Pick 4, Pick 3, Exacta, and Superfecta. The exotics tend to offer more betting value than win, place, and show.
The simple truth is that one $800.00 superfecta, or $500.00 Pick 4 makes up for a lot of losers. Sometimes you have to use a favorite somewhere in the mix. But, generally speaking, exotic tickets loaded up with favorites are rarely profitable in the long run.
In other words, say you are playing a Pick 3, and you play two horses in each race, the favorite and the second choice. The total cost of this bet is $16.00 for $2.00 Pick 3's. This is not a good play. First of all, if all 3 favorites win, you'll probably lose money. And even if a couple of 2 nd -choices win, the Pick 3 is not going to change your life.
Try to play Pick 3's when you have one or two horses that have a chance at a price. Look at your picks. Let's look at a scenario. In the first three races you picked the favorite on top in each race, and the 2 nd choice was your 2 nd pick. You really think the favorites look tough.
In the 4 th race, you picked a 4-1 shot on top, and a 6-1 shot 2 nd . In the 5 th race, you picked the favorite to win, but your 2 nd ranked pick is 10-1 on the morning line. In the 6 th , you picked a 5-2 horse (2 nd choice) on top, and a 5-1 shot as your 2 nd pick.
Now you have some ammunition. You can start a Pick 3 in the 3 rd race, using top two picks in the 3 rd , 4 th , and 5 th (or if you are confident that the favorite will win the 3 rd , and want to reduce your risk, you can key the favorite and play 1 with 2 with 2.). Either this will be a $16.00 bet, or an $8.00 bet if you key the favorite in the 3 rd race. You can then play the pick 3 in the 4 th , 5 th , and 6 th races. The reason why these races appear to have potential as exotic plays is because you have some prices in the ticket.
If one of the races is wide open, and you think your 3 rd choice has a chance at a price, by all means, include it if you can afford the $24.00 wager (2x2x3).
My point is, if you are a pretty good handicapper, chances are that you may be even better than your think.
Let me give you a simple example. As your may know, I've been a handicapping for the public since around 1976. I handicap harness and thoroughbred racing. I've had days when I only had 1 top winner on a card. My first reaction was, “bad day.”
But I've received calls and emails from customers that cleaned up on these bad days. I got a call like this about two weeks ago.
“Pandy, I just wanted to call you to tell you that my wife and I cleaned up on your picks yesterday. “
“You did? I thought I only had one winner.”
“Yeah, but we only bet your horses that go off at 5-1 or higher, and we bet your overlays, regardless of whether you pick them in the money or on top. You had a $36.00 horse listed 3 rd , a $22.00 horse as your 2 nd choice, and a $27.00 overlay. And you hit the $180.00 exacta box with the $36.00 horse, we had it twice.”
See what I mean?
Practice the fundamentals and run the Overlay Test on your top 3 picks. You may find that there's gold in them there hills!

EMAIL ALERT! I'm starting a Pandycapping email group. If you would like to be included, please email me a note (something like, "yes I'd like to be part of your group."). I will add you to my email list and whenever I send out an email you will receive it. I will send track variants when I'm running ahead (or behind) schedule and I will occasionally send a note about a horse that impressed me, system updates, or new products I may be coming out with. Group members can email each other and share insights. There is no charge. I will try to pass along as much useful information as possible.

SOME THINGS TO LOOK FOR WHEN HANDICAPPING (http:///)
GOOD FORM: Harness horses tend to be a fairly consistent breed. Horses that have shown the ability to race well at a certain class level are often the most likely candidates to win a particular race.
CONSISTENCY: Horses that have demonstrated that they can win consistently at a particular level often yield very solid selections to win a race.
TOP DRIVERS: The top four or five drivers at most racetracks will win a disproportionate amount of the races. A list of top drivers appears in the official track program and each driver's UDR (universal driver rating) appears next to the driver's name.
TOP TRAINERS: As with drivers, top trainers will often dominate in the win standings at a racetrack. The trainer's rating appears next to his/her name in the program and a listing of the trainer's standings is also contained in the program.
INSIDE POST POSITIONS: Generally speaking, the closer to the rail a horse starts, the better his chances of success. An inside post makes it easier for a horse to get good early position.
HORSES THAT HAVE HAD EXCUSES: Sometimes horses have had their chances compromised by a number of things beyond their control. Some examples: Poor post positions, interference, breaking, being parked out, being overmatched in class.
HORSES DROPPING IN CLASS: Often a horse will demonstrate poor form because it has been competing against horses that are superior in ability. There is a relationship between class and form, and a horse dropping in class often displays a marked improvement in form.
The biggest equipment change bar none is when you see a horse going from steel
to aluminum shoes. Also trotters that get their shoes taken off. I look for
these everytime I go to the track.

I've had success betting first time gelded.
Now that's a major equipment change. Seriously though, I've hit some big tickets over the years with this angle.
It's usually announced when their giving the scratches and announced like it's a program error.