Poll

[admin]

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Admin

[ken]

I believe each horse has a weight barrier, sometimes obvious. But I do not believe a certain weight will affect alll horses the same at any distance. When I do see on past performances weight "stopping" a horse from getting ITM, it is usually around 121 pounds and younger horses.
Some horses can run better dropping a lot of weight, say over 7 ounds, but they may not always win.
If anyone has stats to prove me wrong please do so!

[LongshotLarry]

Weight could be a problem for a smallish filly or mare at distances greater than a mile. I would check the PPs to see if they were successful in the past carrying higher weights.

[mop38]

I'm inclined to say yes, although modern horses seem to have less longevity.
When Forego raced during the days of greats like Secretariat, they kept piling on weight, and he proved he could win carrying 132.
I made the mistake of betting $10.00 on him next time out, thinking weight wouldn't affect him. He ran third, but close.
As they kept putting more and more weight on him, he was growing more and more tired. So....
Fresh horses carrying modest weight are your best bets.

[Tuna]

Please let us know what you think about the poll by replying with a detailed explanation of your answer here.

Admin

While weight does play a part in the outcome of races, I feel that with more oppressive weights no longer a part of the stakes mix (eg, Fall Highweight Handicap & similar races-of-yore), there are no significant weight discrepancies that will stop a good, fit horse who turns in a winning effort. No longer are there 20-pound weight advantages, and those were the imposts that helped turn tables in a race of any distance, particularly in route races. The days of impost bias are gone, to the horses' collective betterment.

[Mister Sanderson]

Weight is a variable I rate far behind...post position, race trip, jock, the most important variable to me is the way a race sets up... if you're a speed in a race with 5 other front speeds, i dont care if you're carrying 80 lbs... you probably don't hold on..

trip
trip
trip

[butchpalscumbag]

Weight Is Not Important,its All About Beyer Numbers And What
Trainer Has The Juice.
Now,to A Crybaby,bed-wetter Like Bobby Frankel,weight Is Everything,especillay When Its His Horse That Is The Highweight!:)

[easyluckyed]

i have to agree with you.
a dutrow,amoss,catalano,ziadie,lake,horse,does not feel the weight,
if you know what i mean,and i think you all do......:mad:

[thoroughbred]

Other things being equal, a change in the weight carried by a horse, should change the time in which a horse can race a particular distance, compared to a previous time before the weight change.

I show the derivation of this effect in my paper, "Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing."

The paper can be seen at the Documentation link on our web site: www.revelationprofits.com

Here is the applicable summary table.

Clearly the effect is small at the shorter distances and increases with increasing race distance.


Time Change per One Pound Weight Change
(Normalized to 116 pounds)

Race Distance Time Change
(Furlongs) (Ticks)

5 0.187
5.5 0.231
6 0.280
6.5 0.336
7 0.398
7.5 0.467
8 0.543
8.5 0.627
9 0.719
10 0.930
12 1.479
15 2.716
16 3.276

[thoroughbred]

The weight table I showed in the previous message, "collapsed" when submitted, even thought it was originally typed correctly. Sorry about that, but I don't know how to correct it.

The first column numbers are race distance, and the next column is the "ticks."

[Rudy]

.....Weight.... beyond a doubt should be considered a factor in handicapping especially when the same horses keep racing each other. The winner typically picks up weight and the loser usually drops...There are freak exceptions to this..As mentioned in a previous article a handicapper mentioned a horse named "Above the Wind" . he is a horse for the course and will be assigned top weight next time out..He should win again even with the +6 lbs added at 7 furlongs.....the problem for him may be a 1 1/16 mile with 122lbs... When class horses have an edge (facing inferior quality) or (horses not familiar with a track surface) added weight may not play as big a factor......Another bit of advice is watch for a bug or good apprentice rider getting on a horse......if they faced the favorite in the same race the tables may turn at a very good price..........$$$$$.............and good luck