No form system

[anteten]

Hi:

Does anyone have a system that does not use the form?

[ken]

I suppose trainer/jockey combos are the most common of those. At GGf and BM I do well on 4/5 shots and multiple longshots without the form if I am up on the track bias.
Just using the program is very tough. Maybe an expert at physicality can win.
Cheaper claimers or better grass races (favorites) is about as far as I would go without a form, and I would not bet much.
Once in a while you may find contenders in exotic overlays.

[Simulcaster]

Here is a quick system that you can use for Handicapping on the fly.
Step 1. Choose the horse with the most life time money.
Write the horses # down at the bottom of the program and
do not look at that horse again.
Step 2. Choose the horse that has the jockey with the most
races. If there is a tie, use the jockey with the most wins or times in the money. Write that horses # down at the bottom of the program and do not look at that horse again.
Step 3. Choose the horse with the trainer with the most races. If there is a tie, use the trainer with the most wins or times in the money. Write that horses # down at the bottom of the program and do not look at that horse again.
Step 4. Choose the horse with the most life time races. If there is a tie use the horse with the most recent races. Write that horses # down next to your other choices.
Now you have 4 horses. At a reasonable time before post time look at the exacta probable plays. You have 12 probable exactas if at least 8 of them are paying $50. or more then box your picks for $1. Cost $12. per race. I have found this system to work best on cheap open claimers or (non winners of a race or more in a certain amount of time) NOT LIFETIME and for some reason maiden races. Try it on paper at your favorite tracks and see what happens. Make some adjustments to it if you have to. The key is not to use all those speed and class figures that everybody else uses.

[cdax]

Hey Simul, I was working your system on paper a little today. Performed pretty well, including $100 exacta.

[thoroughbred]

Hi:

Does anyone have a system that does not use the form?

Just curious. No disrespect. Why are you interested in a system that doesn't take Form into account?

[cdax]

I assumed he was talking about the Racing Form, not the form of the horse. Not sure now.

[little willie]

i make money betting place . i just look at the tote board.

[Tony Rose]

I am very intrigued by Simul's system for quick-and-dirty HC. Will try it on paper tomorrow. Meets the common sense test to me - you're looking at successful trainers, jocks and money won. Should work nicely for the basic claimers.

As you know I like systems - here's a way to play a good odds exacta at a low investment ($8 or $12), get some action down while minimizing risk.

Good luck to all,

TR

[Thrill]

Here is a quick system that you can use for Handicapping on the fly.
Step 1. Choose the horse with the most life time money.
Write the horses # down at the bottom of the program and
do not look at that horse again.
Step 2. Choose the horse that has the jockey with the most
races. If there is a tie, use the jockey with the most wins or times in the money. Write that horses # down at the bottom of the program and do not look at that horse again.
Step 3. Choose the horse with the trainer with the most races. If there is a tie, use the trainer with the most wins or times in the money. Write that horses # down at the bottom of the program and do not look at that horse again.
Step 4. Choose the horse with the most life time races. If there is a tie use the horse with the most recent races. Write that horses # down next to your other choices.
Now you have 4 horses. At a reasonable time before post time look at the exacta probable plays. You have 12 probable exactas if at least 8 of them are paying $50. or more then box your picks for $1. Cost $12. per race. I have found this system to work best on cheap open claimers or (non winners of a race or more in a certain amount of time) NOT LIFETIME and for some reason maiden races. Try it on paper at your favorite tracks and see what happens. Make some adjustments to it if you have to. The key is not to use all those speed and class figures that everybody else uses.
Is this method fairly consistant i'm going to the track tommorow and would like to test this out. It looks as though it has potential but should I expect to lose once in awhile meaning it isnt sure proof.

[Simulcaster]

Is this method fairly consistant i'm going to the track tommorow and would like to test this out. It looks as though it has potential but should I expect to lose once in awhile meaning it isnt sure proof.

Using my system your not going to find many races to play. Remember the criteria is that 8 of the exactas must pay $50 or more and you can only use the system in certain types of claiming races. It is also meant to hit big exactas but not many exactas. I have personally hit exactas in the $800 range. But remember every race doesn't produce a large payoff.
If you just want to have fun and possibly make some money without risking to much and without handicapping. Just play an exacta part wheel with the 2 morning line favorites over the 4 longest shots on the morning line or the opposite ex. 1-2/5-6-7-8 or 5-6-7-8/1-2 this will cost you $8 per race, and you might hit a couple of big ones.
Simulcaster

[trifecta mark]

if your not going to handicap....{which I wouldn't particularly enjoy} why don't you just throw out the top choice and box the next four in an exacta? Maybe take the 2nd and 3rd choice and key them on top over the next four public selections. Of course you could bet post numbers or purchase lottery tickets too if you have the need for action. I find the enjoyment comes from the intellectual pursuit...like chess, bridge or doing the NYT crossword puzzle. Handicapping well is a real challenge. In this game you can bet small...and win big...if you have the patience ....the timing, you know how to structure tickets and have true belief in your convictions.

[ken]

Sometimes if the track is very speed favoring, I paly favorites in sprints.

[Jerfi]

Hi, there.

A quickie that works enuff to make it worth while:

A first time starter who is the betting favorite will be in the money pushing 90% of the time. If that one has 25% or less of the show pool, it's a nice little way to pay for your DRF and a hotdog!

Jerfi

[Jerfi]

OOPS! In the show bet ... make sure the runner is the ONLY first time starter in the race!!

[ken]

Does anyone hang out in the Turf club and just bet the favorite of that lounge?

[ronski]

a simple system from out of the past.
bet on the tote 1st, 2nd, and third lowest odds a total of any combination divisible by 9, ie 9, 18, 27 etc. in these ratios 4x for the lowest odds, 3x for 2nd. and 2x the 3rd.
if you have some old chart issues or drf copies with charts in them you can check this out without spending anything.
works best on fast track days with quality races.
one caveat, with odds posted in the current fashion at most tracks its hard to tell if if multiple horses are really ranked as in the case of odds as shown in the charts as .80 to $1.00 and others so close that you can't seperate, in that case you can't play that race.
does't take much time or money.

[HoosrCarol]

A system a friend used several years ago (maybe 5-6 years ago) is a quick and dirty way to play horses. I use it sometimes for free on-line contests when I don't have any past performances.

For each horse in the race, take the morning line odds and add the weight. Use the three horses with the LOWEST numbers and box them in an exacta.

[Jerfi]

One thing you can do, if you are reasonably adept at mental math.

Just watch the odds board.

Look for a horse that has 10 % of the show pool, or there about .... and 20 to 25 % of the win and place pools. Bet that horse to win ....

You might get only 1 play every couple of days... but you should show a positive ROI in the long run.

[llegend41]

The Exacta Trifecta Box Smasher

Races must meet the following 2 conditions:

1. Seven or more horses running in race.
2. Race distance between of 5 ½ furlongs and 1 ½ miles.

4 horses will be selected by a 4 rules.

From the 4 horses selected by the rules only 3 are considered for play.

Once a horse is selected by 1 of the 4 rules it will no longer be considered by the other rules. Each rule selects only one horse. There are never 2 or more horses selected by the same rule. The horse selection process begins with rule #1, then goes to rule #2, then goes rule #3, and finally rule 4. This exact selection order must always be followed.

The 4 Rules:

Rule 1
Select the horse with the highest Jockey win % based on the "record to year date."
Separate any ties by selecting the horse with the highest Trainer win % based on the "record year to date."

Rule 2
Select the horse with the highest Trainer win % based on the "record to year date."
Separate any ties by selecting the horse with the highest Jockey win % based on the "record year to date."

Rule 3
Select the horse with the highest lifetime earnings

Rule 4
Select the horse with the best finish in its last race.
Separate any ties by selecting the horse with best finish in lengths ahead or behind the winner.

From the 4 horses selected by the rules, take the 3 horses with the Best 1st call in their last race.
Separate any ties by selecting the horse with the best finish in lengths ahead or behind the winner.

[Charliedog]

Two handicapping angles that work 33%
1. Look for horses who broke 4th in their last start and finish 2,3 and 4th while not running more then 5 lenghts off the lead the whole time.
This is a great show bet.

2. Look for horses in their last start went 3,4,5,6 lenghts wide and either tired or gave way. then check the board if the horses odds are going off less then his/her last start, this is a play.

Good Luck, Charliedog

[HoosrCarol]

Uh-oh, made a big mistake in my post about a system. I said to add the M/L odds to the weight, and use the 3 horses with the highest numbers in an exacta box. WRONG! Should be use the 3 horses with the LOWEST numbers in an exacta box. (I corrected my post.)

This system does work pretty well; you can try it out on a couple old programs and see what happens.

Sorry for my goof.

[jimbo32]

A favorite system of a friend of mine:

He calls it "shotgun betting"

Step one: look at TV monitor showing Mountaineer Race Track and Gaming Resort with 5 minutes to post and determine the top three betting choices in order

Step two: go to SAM machine and punch the following tickets:

$2 trifecta--favorite over next two choices over all
$1 trifecta--favorite over all over next two choices
$1 trifecta--next two choices over favorite over all

Each race takes about 20 seconds to "handicap"

The reason I say Mountaineer is because a) early money at that place really seems to be "smart money" while late money seems to be "dumb money" (even Mark Patterson says this sometimes in his pre-race talk) and b) payoffs there are the wackiest I've ever seen; I once hit a tri box of the three favorites that paid over 550.

[rusrious]

Uh-oh, made a big mistake in my post about a system. I said to add the M/L odds to the weight, and use the 3 horses with the highest numbers in an exacta box. WRONG! Should be use the 3 horses with the LOWEST numbers in an exacta box. (I corrected my post.)

This system does work pretty well; you can try it out on a couple old programs and see what happens.

Sorry for my goof.

I'll check this out in about 30 minutes, from a old DRF..hh)

[rusrious]

Found a very good angle.. First off, I use the YouBet superstats, it' cost $1 for the day, and most track are covered.. Then go throught EVERY runner, and look for the best odds from last race, that lost..

EX. Here, we're looking at Nic's Amigo's last race.. HIT THE RACE button, ( circled )
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/IMG_1506.jpg

Then, look at the past results of his race, ( in red box ) His odds were 5-1, and he took 1st..
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/IMG_1507.jpg

What we are looking for is a horse, that in his last race was " best odds, that didnt get in the money", In Nic's Amigos case, I wouldnt select him, because he wasn't the best odds lost..

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/IMG_1508.jpg
Now here, we looked for the Horse that had best odds, and lost his last race, by not making the money.. Every other horse in the CURRENT race, won the last race they where in, so I would put my money on Rockcastle..

[rusrious]

Oh, yeah, 1 more tip, I stay with 6 furlong races, ONLY.. bc(

[kjtope]

2 By 2 Favorite System ..... Only need to watch the toteboard

With 2 minutes to post, favorite must be 2/1 or less, second choice must be more than 2 times the odds of the favorite. Bet the favorite.

So play the favorite if ...
it's 2/1 or 9/5 and the second choice 4/1 or more.
it's 8/5, 3/2, 7/5 or 6/5 and the second choice 7/2 or more.
it's 1/1, 4/5 or 3/5 and the second choice 3/1 or more.
it's 1/2, 2/5 or 1/5 and the second choice 5/2 or more.
it's 1/9 and the second choice 2/1 or more.

It's a time waster if you don't have a form, not many races qualify, it's a very chalky system, but it finds winners. I've used this system with the morning line instead of the toteboard, that seems to work too. It just zeroes in on horses that the public believes are quite a bit better than their competition.

[Jerfi]

One old timer once wrote (before computers) ... if the favorite is 8/5 or less, and the next favorite is 4/1 or more, RUN, do not WALK, to the window.

Mathematically, experientially, and roi wise, this does NOT work.

[kjtope]

Jerfi's right. Like I said, this is a time waster when you don't have a form, it isn't really a money making system. It's about like betting red or black on a double-0 roulette wheel. I did some spot checks several years ago that showed 47% winners, 60% place, 80% show, with a 90% ROI.

[Simulcaster]

You are going to use only the ML in short fields.
Look for triple boxes and keys.
Below are today's 4 morning line favorites in order for 6 & 7 horse fields.
Do this every day get your programs here:
Instant Programs (FREE) (http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inp)

Note: Do not use races with coupled entries and if it is not clear, What order the horses should be in,(IE. Multiple horses with the same odds) Skip the race.
Get the results here:
results (https://www.ebetusa.com/ebetusa/results_archive)
In about a month (If you keep records) you will know what to play and most importantly on which days.
Beulah Park
R7. 1-4-2-5
Delaware Park
R1. 7-4-5-3
R2. 1-4-5-2
R3. 1-2-5-4
R5. 7-6-5-1
R6. 4-2-1-7
R8. 4-5-6-1
R9. 6-3-1-7
Finger Lakes
R1. 3-6-4-7
Fort Erie
R1. 4-2-1-5
R6. 1-5-7-3
R8. 2-1-3-6
R9. 7-1-2-5
Great Lakes Downs
R1. 3-1-6-2
R9. 7-2-4-5
Penn National
R9. 2-3-5-1
Philadelphia Park
R3. 1-7-5-2
R4. 5-6-2-1
R5. 4-6-3-2
R6. 4-6-7-5
Portland Meadows
R3. 2-3-4-5
R9. 3-2-6-4
Suffolk Downs
R6. 4-5-3-2
Woodlands Park
R1. 6-1-4-5

GOOD LUCK

[rusrious]

Pretty usefull info, thanks..

[Simulcaster]

You are going to use only the ML in short fields.
Look for triple boxes and keys.
Below are today's 4 morning line favorites in order for 6 & 7 horse fields.
Do this every day get your programs here:
Instant Programs (FREE) (http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inp)

Note: Do not use races with coupled entries and if it is not clear, What order the horses should be in,(IE. Multiple horses with the same odds) Skip the race.
Get the results here:
results (https://www.ebetusa.com/ebetusa/results_archive)
In about a month (If you keep records) you will know what to play and most importantly on which days.
Beulah Park
R7. 1-4-2-5
Delaware Park
R1. 7-4-5-3
R2. 1-4-5-2
R3. 1-2-5-4
R5. 7-6-5-1
R6. 4-2-1-7
R8. 4-5-6-1
R9. 6-3-1-7
Finger Lakes
R1. 3-6-4-7
Fort Erie
R1. 4-2-1-5
R6. 1-5-7-3
R8. 2-1-3-6
R9. 7-1-2-5
Great Lakes Downs
R1. 3-1-6-2
R9. 7-2-4-5
Penn National
R9. 2-3-5-1
Philadelphia Park
R3. 1-7-5-2
R4. 5-6-2-1
R5. 4-6-3-2
R6. 4-6-7-5
Portland Meadows
R3. 2-3-4-5
R9. 3-2-6-4
Suffolk Downs
R6. 4-5-3-2
Woodlands Park
R1. 6-1-4-5

GOOD LUCK

There were many scratches today and many races did not have triples.
Here are the results for today's races that did not have any scratches from the 1st 4 ML. Favorites.
Beulah Park
R7. 1-4-2-5 SCR.3, Res. 2-1-5 TRI. $125.60
Delaware Park
R5. 7-6-5-1 Res. 2-1-6
R9. 6-3-1-7 SCR.2, Res. 1-3-6 TRI. $26.20
Finger Lakes
R1. 3-6-4-7 SCR.1, Res. 7-3-2
Fort Erie
R6. 1-5-7-3 Res. 5-2-3
R8. 2-1-3-6 Res. 3-6-2 TRI. $43.10
Great Lakes Downs
R1. 3-1-6-2 Res. 5-6-3
R9. 7-2-4-5 Res. 4-7-2 TRI. $69.20
Philadelphia Park
R4. 5-6-2-1 SCR.4, Res. 6-7-3
R6. 4-6-7-5 Res. 4-3-6
Portland Meadows
R3. 2-3-4-5 Res. 2-3-4 TRI. $32.80
Suffolk Downs
R6. 4-5-3-2 Res. 2-5-7
Woodlands Park
R1. 6-1-4-5 Results 4-6-5 TRI. $299.80