Won Last Start

[derbydan]

Gold Gunner in the 9th at Aqu 3/1 is an interesting horse. He has a 27% trainer (also owner) in B. Levine, the top rider in E. Coa, won his last start over this track and distance for the same $7.5K claiming price with an easily best 83 Beyer, and has "back class," having won a N3x Alw at Mth last fall. Seems like he ought to win for fun in the last leg of the pick 4.
But to me this type of horse is more of a throw out or a bet against. He should be moving up a couple of levels in claiming price, maybe even go into a starter allowance. It's also interesting nobody claimed him last time. His last race was over a month ago, with only a single 52 and change 4f work (110/114).
Does anyone have any advice on when to play a claiming horse trying for a repeat win? Seems like improving Beyers and a move up the claiming price ladder, perhaps even a double jump, is the best angle.

[ken]

If the horse normally does 1 workout between races, you may have a chalk bet!

[LongshotLarry]

Gold Gunner in the 9th at Aqu 3/1 is an interesting horse. He has a 27% trainer (also owner) in B. Levine, the top rider in E. Coa, won his last start over this track and distance for the same $7.5K claiming price with an easily best 83 Beyer, and has "back class," having won a N3x Alw at Mth last fall. Seems like he ought to win for fun in the last leg of the pick 4.
But to me this type of horse is more of a throw out or a bet against. He should be moving up a couple of levels in claiming price, maybe even go into a starter allowance. It's also interesting nobody claimed him last time. His last race was over a month ago, with only a single 52 and change 4f work (110/114).
Does anyone have any advice on when to play a claiming horse trying for a repeat win? Seems like improving Beyers and a move up the claiming price ladder, perhaps even a double jump, is the best angle.

This horse has some type of physical problem-you said that he won a n3x alw last fall at Monmouth. Why is he being entered again at 7500 without a hike in class? The trainer wants to get the most of this horse before his condition further deteriorates. He may win, but I wouldn't single him in the Pick 4. I agree that a big beyer and a rise in class are a good sign of a repeat, but at some tracks, like Charles Town , the purses are so high that a trainer will often keep them at the same level after a win.

LL

[trifecta mark]

Low level claimers {say under 20 K} are notorious for inconsistancy. They can be money burners. Back-to-back wins occur less than 30 % of the time and generally these horses are at lower odds. Many are prone to "bounce' off top efforts or strenuous battles. Rarely are the conditions the same so as a handicapper....you must be leary. You may have more or less cheap speed in the race. Different posts...different distances etc. Good jockeys know what they need to know to beat favorites. You also have to think about trainer and owner intent. Why offer him back up at the same price?

[ken]

I would add that cheap claimers are notoriously trained improperly and not entered into the winnable races, in additon to what you said!