Derby Toss-Outs

[Dr. K]

Which horses are your absolute toss-outs for the win in the Derby?

And please feel free to explain why.

[nomad]

I'm not sure you can say "toss out" and "derby" in the same sentence. Every year I tell myself not to toss the 'chasers' & not to toss a horse that never lost. I lean toward consistency right now. Peaking at the right time is important, who's been knocking at the door? Even at this point, I'm undecided. Consistency-wise, I like Any Given Sat, Street Sense, Scat Daddy.
I might toss Cowtown Cat, (Now watch him win!) Closers like Circular Quay will have a hard time, I imagine CD will be souped up & speed favoring.
Well, I mentioned my 3 top picks, not sure which order yet. I'm leaning toward AGS, since SD had the long layoff & SS was 2yo champ, neither of which should really matter though statistically, well, you know.
GL!

[sdi1958]

While it's easy for me to toss horses who can't win a "Grade 1". I also don't like horses who can't hit the board in the same races. But really, can you really handicap the race before next Wednesday P.P. draw? I also like to get the extended forecast. One thing I'm sure of is , "Knowbody" is going to steal the race on the front end.tu?

[Mister Stigg]

While it's easy for me to toss horses who can't win a "Grade 1". I also don't like horses who can't hit the board in the same races. But really, can you really handicap the race before next Wednesday P.P. draw? I also like to get the extended forecast. One thing I'm sure of is , "Knowbody" is going to steal the race on the front end.tu?

For SURE, Sdi. Which is why it is logical to consider tossing out Cowtown Cat. And for that reason, I'll go out on a limb and toss Tueflesburg, Slew's Tizzy, and Hard Spun. Liquidity and Cobalt Blue just because they ran, hmmm, how should I put this, real bad last time out. Dominican b/c the derby is on dirt, not poly.

[sdi1958]

For SURE, Sdi. Which is why it is logical to consider tossing out Cowtown Cat. And for that reason, I'll go out on a limb and toss Tueflesburg, Slew's Tizzy, and Hard Spun. Liquidity and Cobalt Blue just because they ran, hmmm, how should I put this, real bad last time out. Dominican b/c the derby is on dirt, not poly.

Mr. Stigg,
The (1) horse that I consider the "X-factor" is "Cowtown Cat". He rated and bulled thru horses in N.Y. The he had a walk in the park in IL.. I don't think he needs the lead, and the draw is going to be very important for him.

[Dr. K]

Stats since 1975 by post position


P.P.---Starters--Winners

1-------31--------2
2-------31--------2
3-------31--------4
4-------31--------1
5-------31--------4
6-------31--------1
7-------31--------1
8-------31--------2
9-------31--------0
10------30--------6
11------29--------0
12------29--------0
13------29--------1
14------25--------0
15------24--------3
16------19--------3
17------16--------0
18------13--------1
19------10--------0
20-------4--------0
21-------2--------0

[danstep43]

hey Dr. K, is this the numbers pattern Guillermo was talking about??? LOL

[Dr. K]

Could be!!!!rofl

[manny]

a: Now I understand!

[diamondjoe]

Last I heard, Colbalt Blue, and Xchanger are out. (Colbalt blue would've gotten in the way, and Xchanger will be a much bigger factor in the preakness with the added rest). In are Tueflesberg and Imawildandcrzyguy.(Who are both a toss for me). Also on the toss block are:(in no particular order) Nobizlikeshowbiz, Cowtown Cat, Stormello, Tiago, Storm in May, Liquidity, Sam P, Dominican (6f in 1:16?), and Bwana Bull. They, like Tueflesberg will just be in the way of the horses with a legitimate chance to win. There are others, who I haven't made a final decision on. Street Sense may need a longer distance(Belmont?), but he may be about to hit his peak at the right time. As impressive as Curlin's races have looked on replays, from a numbers crunching POV, it seems like he benefitted from some slower races in the early stages. much like cheap maidens do when they finally score. This could spell trouble if he has to chase faster horses, which he probably will. (ex. Bellamy Road)
Zanjero is another one that may be better at a longer distance, but he could get up for a piece at a nice price. Hard Spun could actually win the race to the first turn, with a pedigree that screams classic distance, but they haven't had much sucess rating him. Circular Quay has never been one of my favorites, but he figures to be in the mix, assuming the long layoff doesn't cost him. Any Given Saturday has top notch pedigree, but who has he really beaten. (He was all out against a less than primed Street Sense, and he still lost).
Scat Daddy seems to be the least flawed, and it will interesting to what kind of price I get, considering he seems to be walking in the shadows of Street Sense, Curlin, and Great Hunter, who may benefit from this distance. Anyone I forgot to mention, was probably intentional. Looking forward to the draw tomorrow. Good luck to all. ds: ds:

[Jerfi]

Well, I'll toss all the odd numbered horses who don't have a R in their name, and all the even numbers who haven't won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Then, I'll toss all jocks who's first name starts with a vowel, and all horses who's name does not contain an "E."

Next rule of thumb for the Derby is to toss all horses who haven't earned $500,000 in their career.

If anything is left, then box the rest for a trifecta bet, and mail the ticket to the WISE MEN.

[scottsdad]

Jerfi---that Inside Information We Gave You Was Meant To Be Kept Confidential.

[Jerfi]

Scottsdad,

How are they going to know to mail you the ticket, if I don't tell them?

[llegend41]

http://www.courier-journal.com/cjsports/trackside/database/index.html

try this link

[Jerfi]

I tried the link a few times, and all I get is

Couldn't find mapping for /cjsp...base/index.html and no default error page!

[scottsdad]

Jerfi---try Going To---www.wisemenguesses.com

[Jerfi]

Nice site! :) Lucia does good work! ;)

[llegend41]

The new link i posted works sorry about that good info here
http://www.courier-journal.com/cjsports/trackside/database/index.html

[elwood]

As of Thurs. 5/3--My Toss-outs:

1,4,5,9,10,11,17,20