ken
02-28-2006, 01:11 AM
I have a number of ways to try and find the true speed the track is running the current day.
Some have told me that track biases do not exist and that workouts mean nothing, so take what you want of this:
1) Workouts- check the 4f dirt workouts if 10 or more horses worked out. you are looking for the middle or median number. If 10 worked out, the number would be 5/10; If 40 worked out, 20/40.
Southern Ca track websites are publishing average workouts for their crews and the public.
Look for a bias if you see large gaps in the middle of the times.
3f works can also hint at track speed, but harrow (tilling) depth can change by a lever on the tractor, and lots of water can compact the dirt.
2) (Usually more watering compacts the dirt and makes the track faster) First race or 2- look for the color of the dirt- darker color means more water, You may see the edge where the water does not reach for comparison. Look for how high the dirt flies up off the hooves- on a rainy, muddy day the wetter the higher; On a normal "fast track" day, the higher the dryer and less compact and less wet.
3) Runners- look to see if horses on any part of the width of the track are fading less- sometimes you will see ALL the horses along the rail fading more than the outside horses, sometimes the opposite.
4) Results charts- called "Full Charts" on www.equibase.com- look for the running style and how many lengths won or lost in the stretch by the ITM horses; look for jockeys who take a certain path and win well that day; look for the overall winning times and for fractional times.
You are looking for day-long patterns that may remain for longer than 1 day.
___________
Most bettors assume the track is always the same day after day- and the bettor who recognizes a slow stretch, turns faster than straightaways, which jockeys recognize biases first, is speed is holding well, can adjust bets and picks if appropriate.
___________
During the week prior to the 2003 Kentucky Derby the Churchill Downs website each nite, including non-race days, said "track was rolled (sealed)". favorites were off the pace horses and many horses wired and paid $8.00-$15.00 during the week. The workout speed (48.6) was exactly the same all week. No rain.
Derby day 2003 I picked 7 of 12 first choice picks by full handicapping instead of handicapping for early speed because Friday nite the track maintenance report did NOT say rolled- they let the track go back to 49.4 middle workout time, nice normal speed.
I consider 49.0-50.0 "normal" for every track's 4f dirt middle workout; lower is faster and higher is slower progressively.
Some have told me that track biases do not exist and that workouts mean nothing, so take what you want of this:
1) Workouts- check the 4f dirt workouts if 10 or more horses worked out. you are looking for the middle or median number. If 10 worked out, the number would be 5/10; If 40 worked out, 20/40.
Southern Ca track websites are publishing average workouts for their crews and the public.
Look for a bias if you see large gaps in the middle of the times.
3f works can also hint at track speed, but harrow (tilling) depth can change by a lever on the tractor, and lots of water can compact the dirt.
2) (Usually more watering compacts the dirt and makes the track faster) First race or 2- look for the color of the dirt- darker color means more water, You may see the edge where the water does not reach for comparison. Look for how high the dirt flies up off the hooves- on a rainy, muddy day the wetter the higher; On a normal "fast track" day, the higher the dryer and less compact and less wet.
3) Runners- look to see if horses on any part of the width of the track are fading less- sometimes you will see ALL the horses along the rail fading more than the outside horses, sometimes the opposite.
4) Results charts- called "Full Charts" on www.equibase.com- look for the running style and how many lengths won or lost in the stretch by the ITM horses; look for jockeys who take a certain path and win well that day; look for the overall winning times and for fractional times.
You are looking for day-long patterns that may remain for longer than 1 day.
___________
Most bettors assume the track is always the same day after day- and the bettor who recognizes a slow stretch, turns faster than straightaways, which jockeys recognize biases first, is speed is holding well, can adjust bets and picks if appropriate.
___________
During the week prior to the 2003 Kentucky Derby the Churchill Downs website each nite, including non-race days, said "track was rolled (sealed)". favorites were off the pace horses and many horses wired and paid $8.00-$15.00 during the week. The workout speed (48.6) was exactly the same all week. No rain.
Derby day 2003 I picked 7 of 12 first choice picks by full handicapping instead of handicapping for early speed because Friday nite the track maintenance report did NOT say rolled- they let the track go back to 49.4 middle workout time, nice normal speed.
I consider 49.0-50.0 "normal" for every track's 4f dirt middle workout; lower is faster and higher is slower progressively.