DON'T GIVE UP on GR. HUNTER YET!!!!!

[RichieC]

Now right up front I'll tell you I'm no expert but, what I saw in the Blue Grass tells me that GH is a super horse. According to some of the experts he needs a good (fast ) pace to really show his stuff which he did not have yesterday. However, when he rounded into the stretch he came on fast seemingly playing with SS advanceing nicely. Teuflesberg drifted into his path and he and SS bumped. This happened twice and each time GH seemed to have another grear to pull away before being blocked. After the 2nd block seems as though he was pulled up not to try again. If he came out of that race with out problems I feel he'll be a good price on Derby Day and could surprize the naaaay sayers. Well, what do you think? That's a story I'm going to stick by for now.

[macpack7]

I have watched this race over and over, and feel the pace was not as fast as Great Hunter likes, so I would have to agree with you there. However, any of these five have an equal shot to show their stuff on Derby Day,, Great Hunter, should have good odds, and that may draw me to him. Dominican's win, will make the odd makers job a little harder, but I really like Zanjero, so I will be leaning on that side of the fence. :) Good Luck to you,, and keep me posted.

[Nijinsky]

I fully agree with you....Great Hunter had much going against him in the Blue Grass as the race unfolded, and firing your best shot in that prep race does not really set you up too well for the Derby.
It's much too early to give up on such a good horse......

[FastG45]

From Start to Finish, New Surface Is a Mess
By Andrew Beyer (http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/andrew+beyer/)
Monday, April 16, 2007
Racing fans expected Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes to be the definitive prep for the Kentucky Derby, with a showdown between the two leading contenders, Street Sense and Great Hunter.
But when four horses reached the finish line at Keeneland almost simultaneously, with 8-to-1 shot Dominican prevailing by a nose, the result revealed almost nothing about their relative merits. It told nothing about what may happen at Churchill Downs three weeks hence. In fact the Blue Grass, which was contested for the first time over the artificial surface Polytrack, bore little resemblance to thoroughbred racing as most Americans know it.
Since Keeneland installed Polytrack last fall, the surface has turned the game there upside down. American racing has historically favored horses endowed with speed; its breeding industry has invested billions of dollars to produce such horses. Yet at Keeneland, a track that used to be dominated by front-runners, speed has become a liability. Of the first 48 races run on the surface last year, only one horse was able to lead all the way. Jockeys adapted to the nature of the surface by restraining their mounts to a degree rarely seen in dirt races. The horses would be tightly bunched, as they are in Europe, until they turned into the stretch and made a dash to the wire.
I wrote last fall this was an ugly style of racing. Others disagreed. Keeneland President Nick Nicholson told me then that he liked the nature of the races, with bunched fields and tight finishes. The betting public didn't seem to object; Keeneland with Polytrack set wagering records.
But Saturday's races in Lexington, Ky., underscored all that is wrong with the synthetic surface.
The track has been very fast since Keeneland opened a week ago; a 2-year-old broke the world record for 4 1/2 furlongs Thursday. But even with a fast track underneath them, almost all horses come out of the gate running slow.
Over such a quick racing surface, good horses will typically cover the first half mile of a route race in 47 seconds or thereabouts. (The half-mile fraction in last week's Santa Anita Derby was 46.95 seconds. In Aqueduct's Wood Memorial, the time was 47.26.) Yet in almost every race at Keeneland -- and particularly in the routes -- the jockeys refuse to let their horses show speed. The half-mile fraction in a good-quality allowance race Saturday was 50.89 seconds; in a Grade 3 stakes race it was 50.10.
The front-runner in the Blue Grass field was Teuflesberg, a speedster capable of sprinting a half mile in :45 flat. He led through the first half mile of the Blue Grass in 51.46 seconds -- and even then nobody tried to challenge him in earnest. He reached the six-furlong mark in a preposterous 1:16.65.
"I've seen lines at the Post Office move faster," columnist Rick Bozich wrote in the Louisville Courier-Journal. Only when they turned into the stretch did the riders in the pack start asking their horses seriously. Strategically they were doing the right thing because they knew front-runners rarely win at Keeneland. Even after setting such an extraordinarily slow pace, Teuflesberg couldn't hold the lead in the Blue Grass.
The 1 1/8 -mile race was reduced to a quarter-mile dash to the wire involving five horses. Great Hunter was squeezed back in the congested field and lost his chance, but the other four were separated at the finish by one nose and two heads. When it was over, many racing fans pondered the outcome and asked what the Blue Grass told us about these horses and about the Kentucky Derby.
The answer is that it told us nothing. It has no relevance to a fast-paced Derby that will be run on traditional dirt. It didn't tell us whether Street Sense is a potential thoroughbred star or whether Dominican is a worthy Kentucky Derby contender. What's the point of running a rich stakes race when it won't even reveal whether the horses are good or bad, fast or slow?
It is a mystery why Keeneland has been so aberrant. At other tracks that have installed artificial surfaces (such as Turfway Park and Woodbine), racing has been fairly normal. The early fractions of races have not been unusually slow, and the winners have been a fair mix of front-runners and stretch-runners. I asked Jim Pendergest, general manager of the company that manufactures Polytrack, to explain the Keeneland phenomenon. He said he had followed the 2006 races closely, and he concluded: "The jockeys had a lot to do with it. They expected a closers' track, so nobody wanted to go too fast. But after a horse or two won in front, they picked up the pace a little."
This spring they are not picking up the pace, but the jockeys' go-slow tactics are not the result of some misperception. They are adjusting to reality. When they see front-runners fade after setting a moderate pace or a slow pace, they conclude they should try to go even slower.
Keeneland is a partner of Martin Collins Surfaces and Footings, the firm that makes Polytrack, so its management is unlikely to acknowledge that the surface has produced a freaky style of racing. But several other U.S. tracks -- including Arlington Park, Del Mar and Santa Anita -- will soon be using synthetic surfaces, and their operators should make sure they know what they are getting. They should hope not to get a mutant version of horse racing that penalizes thoroughbreds for being fast.

[Nijinsky]

I read this article by Andy Beyer last night on DRF.com and while I see where he is coming from, I can't sympathize.
Really seems like he is whining because he can't handicap the polyturf.
The bottom line is this: if this surface is safer for horses (the jury is still out on that one), it should be the prevalent footing at U.S. tracks.
Trainers seem to like it much better - fewer injuries in training and racing.
However, while it is too early to say that polytrack is the future of racing, a strong school of thought is heading that way.
Andy Beyer is, clearly, going to be the cheerleader from the other side of the fence......

[deltasports]

Its Amazing How Many People Thats On This Site Wouldn't Know A Horse If They Slepted In Bed With One.one Of My Favorite Sayings.
I First Heard That Saying In The Belmont Park Horsemans Kitchen Back In 1957

[Nijinsky]

Not sure what you're trying to say delta....great hunter no good?

[RichieC]

Many on this site are hoping that we can learn about horses and capping from some of the experts and old timers so that we can pass this knowledge on to others freely without making them feel like they are idiots. It's nice to be important but it's more imporant to be nice. IMHO. Teach and share more and critize less would be a good way to go. I freely admit that I'm far from an expert and I don't know poly track from poly grip but I too have seen a lot of favorable info. that the new stuff seems to help the health of the horses. It only has to help a few and I'm for it. Change in any thing is sometimes hard to accept. Anyway, I still think G.H. is a lot of horse and seems to have a lot left in the tank. This time last year I was in Blue Grass Cat's corner. He did not turn out too badly.

[Dr. K]

RichieC, don't pay any attention to Mr. Personality. Great Hunter is still a very good horse and you should not count him out. But you know he's got a horse (Curlin) on top that will be trying to do something that hasn't been done since 1882....win the Kentucky Derby after not racing as a 2 year old. Only 125 years ago Apollo managed to accomplish this feat and I bet he either tried to buy him or saw him run. rofl

Curlin's dosage is 4.00, barely equaling the magic number (only Dominican is higher) and a COD of 1.05, highest among main contenders. (Lower dosage and COD are usually needed by classic runners). Add in the less than quality competition he faced at Oaklawn and he will need one of the AZZman's famous milkshakes to buck this history. I hope Curlin takes a lot of wasted money come Derby day. If he is able to overcome all this, I will eat crow with my own milkshake. GH has a much better chance than this one.

By the way, good post Richie! Everyone has a right to an opinion.

[cashcall]

Dennis O Neil was quoted as saying prior to the Blue Grass a top 3 was what they wanted from GH & seeing his work patterns (2) is suggestive of a design.Reports from the paddock say that he looked like a killer prior to the race.I was surprised to see him upfront early despite slamming the gate.When they turned for home he started to move & despite the bumping it appeared he did'nt handle the track well.IMO Corey did the right thing easing him up knowing that bigger thing's laid ahead.Did he get enough out of the race?Despite the troubled trip he came home in a little over 12 secs.While dissecting the internal fractions,wide trips, moves etc. may be the telling tale to the Blue Grass.The next 3 weeks of training will be the key to GH.Having a future wager on him may make me a little bias but
it appeared as the Fappiano line on the dam side finally came threw
showing eagerness in the race/stretch despite the trip.Have to admit,I'm salivating at what the odd's might be on GH come Derby Day!

[cashcall]

From Start to Finish, New Surface Is a Mess



Hearing this from Andy Beyer,as a handicapper i'm shocked! Did not the final 3 from the BC boys race have there final prep at Kee?What of Barbaro, Thor's Echo, Dreaming of Anna,Round Pond?All who trained beautifully at Kee & providing us all with thrilling races!

[cashcall]

I stand corrected,the first 5 came home in under 12 secs. in the Blue Grass.

[FastG45]

I just wanted to let everybody know that when I post an article not authored by me doesn’t mean that’s my opinion. I don’t necessarily agree or disagree with all or any part of the article. One of the reasons I post articles by other people is I think it might be relevant to the thread and people might find it interesting. Another reason is the person that started the thread and some of the people reading the thread might have missed the article for whatever reason and might enjoy reading it here. Most of the time I’m just too busy and/or too lazy to compose and write some big article with my opinions and copy and pasting another person’s writings is easier. There is a saying that to steal ideas from one person is plagiarism; to steal from many is research. Obviously my opinions are not very accurate otherwise I would already be rich from this game. I was thinking of a way to edit articles I post with a colored coded system. I would underline and color statements or sentences I agree with in one color and ones I disagree with in another. I could have one color for factual statements and one for things I find funny. Also I could add footnotes to try to explain my thoughts on a statement but like I said earlier, I’m just too lazy to do all that work trying to doctor up the article. I read everyone’s posts and I have gained a lot of knowledge and interesting facts and I respect everyone’s point of view except for maybe “CantLose”.

[nashua]

I have a box of crayolas if you want to borrow them. Polytrack Sucks!