winners at track or otb

[fetty]

are there anybody out there that can honestly say make a living betting the ponys????? yes we can beat a race but can we beat the races???? i met a man 30 years ago at pennational his name was pittsburg phil yes I was amazed !!!! he didnt tell me how he was picking the races all i now is that he won one hundred thousand that day!!! anyway I no I lost again !!!! I say about 95% of us lose that day or night at the track and only 5% walk out winners !!!! I no I got a problem withmoney manamge !!!! lots of times iam up 200.00 and walk out being broke!!!! anyway just like talking about the ponys anybody got anything to say please reply thanks good luck in picking winners or whatever!!!!! fetty

[ken]

2 suggestions-
1) practice betting only 1 race then leaving the track, win or lose. Only check the tote board at 5 minutes to post.
2) The only way to win long term is to keep a record of your betting- keep the program and note bet size and amount of payoff. Then you will learn what races and horses you are best at picking.
If you are short on handicapping skills, study all winners' and place horses' past performances til you find a reason why they did well. I do not care if it is 100-1: find something about the horse that allowed it to win that day!
Try looking at the dirt to see how much water is on it and how high the dirt flys up- that will tell you a little about how fast the track is running, and see if leaders hold or lose position.
Practice handicapping without looking at the last race finish- any horse can win the last race! Look for a fit, fighting horse in a fair race. Do not bet any who lost last out as a favorite unless something has changed for the better- they are money burners.
Do not bet any horse who led in the stretch and lost last out- too risky.
You can consider betting longshots who are dropping in price and have over 50% ITM in the last 10 races.
You can consider betting any horse who ran wide and finished ITM at least twice if it has a low post or is stretching out.
Study my list of leg problems.
If you are betting a horse going up in purse or class level, bet it only if the last race odds were under 3-1 or over or over 7-1 and it won or placed.
Do not bet on Sundays unless you can win on some closers.
PM me if you want to paper test my multiple longshot or early speed methods-
My place/show method is unavailable.

[ken]

There are many who have a positive ROI overall. I could live nicely on what Steve R wins! I have a positive ROI but make little because I spend much time posting, redearching, and developing methods for my use.
Online betting saves me about $20 per day by not going to the track. I mostly go for special giveaway days.
Some of the best known authors- I think Ainslie, Quirin, Dr Z came in, did the math and won and wrote, and left. Ainslie is/was a card player; the other 2 (and Sartin) were/are professors; Beyer admits the original speed figure method he popularized was invented by a college buddy who was not a horseplayer.
My point is, a positive ROI involves at least some simple arithmetic. Or you have no control over your bets.
Numbers are involved in figuring out what combination of angles (variables) work; the risk/value assessment; how much to net; keeping records; analyzing PPs and results charts.
I always think in terms of % probabilty and profit margin, whether I am learning something or have already figured it out.
I think it is easy not to think correctly if you listen to all the BS out there and take the wrong things as fact.
I make opinions on this forum and suggest ideas, but I expect the other person to test them. I have not necessarily paper or real money tested every idea I get! I would never have time!
I have read about or tried hundreds of angles and methods and have only kept a few that has worked consistently for me. If I bet everything I thought about trying I would be WAY down in a hole instead of ahead!
The best thing about me and horseracing is that I hate gambling- I love winning but hate to lose any money! To me every bet I do not make I won $2! With all the races running across the USA I could have bet but did not I feel rich just for not losing on them!LOL!!

[mop38]

I've been following the money trail for many years.

Certain industries make tremendous money.

In the entire realm, horseracing is not in the same league as the energy industry, or wireless/computers, nor for that matter, casino gambling.

It's only through casino gambling that some race tracks have seen a surge in purse structures. And yet, who benefits from higher purses?

And so I ask, and hope some of you continue this discussion...

Who in horseracing is making the big bucks?

Hot trainers? Top Jockeys? Big owner operations like Frank Stronach?

One great racehorse returned a hundred million dollars to it's owners.

Ordinary people who decided to take a chance when a dark bay came up at auction, and plunked down $17,500.00 on Seattle Slew...the Taylors now reside in a nice home in Kentucky, and Karen Taylor no longer needs to fly on airplanes and serve the public. Thanks to one great stallion who made his mark on many new racehorses today that trace their pedigree back to him.

Remember, a hundred million dollars twenty years ago is worth many times what it is today.

Exxon Mobil recently reported the highest earnings of any American based company ever, something like over thirty billion dollars.

I don't think the entire racing pool, worldwide, comes close to these numbers. Certainly high gasoline prices contributed to this windfall.

Certain Arab countries also make so much money in these wacky times, that they own a good portion of America's debt, so why not seaports as well?

Can the lowly owner hope to make big money in the fast game of horseracing, or are there too many con artists today?

Does the high costs of training prevent an owner from making a profit?

And lastly, considering the costs, are there any reputable trainers worth taking a shot with?

I know of many with good figures that suggest a new owner can come in and see instant success, but can it be just a myth?

Thanks, and answer me with any pertinent information on this subject that haunts me to no end.

Good luck!

[THE KID]

"Do not bet on Sundays unless you can win on some closers."

Could somebody explain this quote more fully? All I know is that my usual handicapping methods seem to go all wrong on Sundays.
Thanks for any comments...

[Simulcaster]

"Do not bet on Sundays unless you can win on some closers."


I also would like to know, why it is so hard to win on Sundays? A few years ago I started betting on only races with 8 horses or more. On most days 9 or more, I drop to 8 when I can't find the right races at 9 or more. Well since then, I've been able to make a steady income. Not much, but enough to make my car payments. But for some reason Sundays have been really tough. I can understand Monday & Tuesday, (low quality tracks & very inconsistent horses), but on Sundays the same tracks are running that ran Thurs. Fri. & Sat. Please enlighten me. Why are Sundays so tough?

[vicmac]

are there anybody out there that can honestly say make a living betting the ponys????? yes we can beat a race but can we beat the races???? i met a man 30 years ago at pennational his name was pittsburg phil yes I was amazed !!!! he didnt tell me how he was picking the races all i now is that he won one hundred thousand that day!!! anyway I no I lost again !!!! I say about 95% of us lose that day or night at the track and only 5% walk out winners !!!! I no I got a problem withmoney manamge !!!! lots of times iam up 200.00 and walk out being broke!!!! anyway just like talking about the ponys anybody got anything to say please reply thanks good luck in picking winners or whatever!!!!! fetty
man, that was like a millon bucks back then, and i was 4 years old:rolleyes:

[ken]

$$$=Breeders! See Steve's post about paying $300,000.00 to have his mare bred to Giant's Causeway! Then ask him how much he paid to have the teaser horse do all the work!LOL!!
Sundays- That was my original thought; manily afeter watchjing sunday replays at Hollywood and seeing so much stretch fading. Then I looked at other tracks.
Unless you monitor the charts on a day-of-the-week basis and know how to read between the lines, it is even tougher.
And, are the tracks maintained differently for non-racing days than racing days?

[ken]

My post that included "do not bet on Sundays" was to give a few ideas for Fetty to think about in respect to money management:
"anyway I no I lost again !!!! I say about 95% of us lose that day or night at the track and only 5% walk out winners !!!! I know I got a problem with money manamge !!!! lots of times i am up 200.00 and walk out being broke!!!!"
My ideas were to try to help minimize the riskier bets. My problrm is nobetting often enough, but I can pass any horse or race by taking $2 out of my right pocket and puting in my left pocket- I just won $2!
___________
Off Topic- The main thing that I see that has not changes in racing is that any horse who works or races over 4 furlongs will lose energy. To decrease the effect of energy loss and compete at their best, they have to have good energy and be physically fit to begin with; be trained properly and be in the correct race; be ridden to compliment their best style with the east energy loss.
And when you see that the connections, vet, etc. have all done their job, and feel you have a pick, then it is up to you make an assessment of the horse's chances in the race vs. the odds- what I call risk/value assessment.
That is the only way to win in the long run and good money (and emotional) management is the only way to do that and is common to all who maintain a positive ROI. Some just do not have to think about it. I do!
Since I am into handicapping and occasional betting, I consider myself lucky to not care about the thrill of i. I just like to outhink the 95% who are not on this forum! At the track I often do not watch the live race I have bet on- I am busy betting or running for food or drinks for my wife. I do my handicapping at home and a scratch is $2 saved in my pocket!
When I do watch the races I cheer for whoever is leading and for the winner. I know I will come out ahead overall because I know the numbers and % and risk/value is in my favor in every race.
I cannot handicap a race or horse unless I ask myself "Self, if this exact race were run 100 times would I be money ahead? If the answer is yes then it could be a bet- if the answer is "No, unless a rider is thrown or No, they may stiff my horse or the other will be doped up too often" then better notto be a bettor for that race.