Pletcher's Audible

[sdi1958]

Myself allways being the sceptic, Pletcher had just solidified my thinking. Has has just declared "Circular Quay" out of the "Wood". He will now run "AGS" in his place.
This tells me (4) things:
1) All is not right with CQ, he'll bringing him into the "Derby" off of (8) weeks rest. My gut tells me he won't even make the race.
2) The "Wood" obviously is the easier spot compared to the "Blue Grass". Pletcher doesn't want any part of "SS" or "Great Hunter" before the "Derby".
3) AGS in in the "Wood" to win at all expense. This being an attempt to get "Nobiz" to run his "A" race before the "Derby". I Believe that AGS is at the very "Peak" of his form cycle.
(4) After the "Wood", Pletcher's top derby candidate will be "Scat Daddy".

All the pieces are falling into place for "Street Sense", and he doesn't even have to win the "Blue Grass". a:

[Dr. K]

I pretty well agree with your post and I now have serious questions about CQ, who, prior to this latest development was my Derby choice. "Less" seems to be the craze nowadays in the trainer's minds regarding preps leading up to the TC, but 8 weeks is an awful long time between starts. Pletcher has had success with this angle, but who knows what's going on. He's juggling horses like a clown in the circus.

Add Jones and the Hard Spun saga and this is turning into quite a soap opera. May run in Lexington and Preakness and skip Derby. IMO, he has badly mishandled this horse. Something just doesn't seem right. Why would you pass on the chance of winning a KD unless the horse has problems, or he feels he's not good enough on the dirt to win at the Derby distance?

I also think you're right about Pletcher having AGS try to make Nobiz extend himself to the fullest in this race. Win or lose, he may help his chances along with others come May, including SD and SS as you stated.

The next few days and weeks are gonna be interesting.

[Mister Stigg]

Somebody posted an attachment about Jones and Hard Spun under the Hard Spun forum. It sounded like the reason Jones was thinking about skipping the Derby was b/c he wasn't sure if HS would handle the surface. He said recently his horse is doing great, so why skip the Blue Grass? I think HS loves poly. I could agree with running in the Blue Grass, skipping the Derby, and then taking a crack at the Preakness. Lexington Stakes, then Preakness, a little bit too conservative. IMO

[mister zesterhouse]

Somebody posted an attachment about Jones and Hard Spun under the Hard Spun forum. It sounded like the reason Jones was thinking about skipping the Derby was b/c he wasn't sure if HS would handle the surface. He said recently his horse is doing great, so why skip the Blue Grass? I think HS loves poly. I could agree with running in the Blue Grass, skipping the Derby, and then taking a crack at the Preakness. Lexington Stakes, then Preakness, a little bit too conservative. IMO


LJ is ultra-conservative but have always liked the angle of skipping the Derby and the 20 horse field for the Preakness' 12 horse field and go from there. Also, LJ hates Churchill, always has. I'd like to see him in the Bluegrass but Lexington to Preakness sounds like a good plan to me (let Nobiz, Scat Daddy, CQ, Great Hunter, Street Sense crush each other then come back in two weeks when I [Hard Spun] am/is fresh).

Re:CQ, I don't mind the break because this guy has a ton of racing experience, unlike many of these. He didn't particularly handle the poly last year, and Pletcher is trying to keep his boys away from each other as much as possible.

AGS earned his shot in the Wood--I thought he ran a really big race today to, IMO, the best 3 year old, that is Nobiz, and the second best, Street Sense--he really got a clean trip after getting bumped into the first turn and did make a big run at Nobiz.

Nobiz had his mind on business, though, today and JD Bailey is absolutely correct: Cornelio had better get his act together and get this monster to relax or it will be trouble late in KY. But, with full acknowledgement of the professionalism of Scat Daddy, Nobiz is the horse to beat.

SA Derby was G3 material; another gutsy effort by King o.t Roxy, a tiny bit too far (1 1/16 he wins comfortably). If you have Liquidity in any derby future bets, eat them now (I prefer to let em soak at the bottom of a bowl of cereal, Lucky Charms or Fruity Pebbles, they go down better).

Cobalt Blue, Sam P., Summer Doldrums: Thistle's racing secretary will be in touch (Ohio Derby is G2, nothing to be ashamed of).

[deltasports]

I HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE SANTA ANITA DERBYS SINCE 1955

THIS ONE WAS THE WORST ONE..IT HAD A BUNCH OF ALLOWANCE HORSES & NW OF 2 LIFE & NW X2..KING ROXY, I COULD HAVE BOUGHT FOR $5K RIGHT OFF OF HIS BREEDERS FARM..JUST GOES TO SHOW YOU I AM AS DUMB AS THOSE DUMB HORSES THAT RAN IN THE SANTA ANITA DERBY SATURDAY...a: bh)

[mister zesterhouse]

I feel strongly enough about this that I'm going to post it under a few different threads so people trying to ignore me may yet accidently have to read what I say: Pletcher would have won the SA Derby--by daylight--if he had run Rags against the boys. Tiago? King of the Roxy at 1 1/8 miles? Are you kidding me--his dad was a 6 furlong horse. Rags' daddy, AP Indy, raped her mother and impregnated her with her. She's the fastest 3 year old thoroughbred in the world at any classic distance of ground, probably on any surface. She should have been a Santa Anita Derby winner.

(Sam P. tries hard--good for him. Try the Sir Barton with him.)

I agree; and what I'm saying is not even that insightful. tro(