PDA

View Full Version : Steves Hoop Picks System Test


Steve
03-19-2007, 01:05 PM
As I have the time I will make some Hoop selections for the coming days. Keep a watch as I may add or take down any game before it starts based on any critical last minute information.

Otherwise I am going to keep a running thread of daily selections. I will also use a money management system attributed to the late Huey Mahl.

I will use the maximum amount I am willing to risk—double it---(like margins in stock)—and base my percent of bet each day on the doubled amount. The percent will be 8% (there abouts…balanced to make even dollar bets) of the total bankroll amount each day-- less/or plus the day before. In the end of this workout 8% should be about the average.

For this experiment I will divide my bets equally between the teams I select for any given day. I will not buy any hooks. All selections will be ATS for the win. No over/under bets.

To start my bankroll I will use the most I am willing to lose is $10K. Once that amount has expired I am on to something else. If I were to double then 10K is taken out and I will start all over again, but using the profit and at no risk to my starting money. Now that would be nice.

Rules. 10K + double =20K 8% is $1600, but I am going to risk only $1500.00 or 7.5% tonight.

The plays are for $500 each:

College:

Mississippi +6 Take the points here
Clemson

NBA

Sacramento - 3 Laying the points
Atlanta

Boston +5 ( Taking the points Boston/awesome on the road lately. Hope this isn’t the reversal night)
New Orleans

Steve

Steve
03-19-2007, 09:25 PM
Guess I was due as I have had a nice week run. Strange thing is that the only sessions I have lost all have been the two of three times I posted on the site. Must be a Horse Jinx.

None-the-less I have $18,500.00 Bankroll with $1500.00 to scatter 3-20-07 (.081% of Bankroll).

Picks posted Tomorrow.

Steve

Steve
03-20-2007, 12:48 PM
Steve’s Odds for WIN

To obtain my line on today’s games a point ATS occurs for every occurrence of --10 point difference in Win percentages. Example:

Denver @ New Jersey

I give Denver a 50% chance to win
I give New Jersey 46% chance.

Denver 50%
Jersey - 46 %
_____
.04
Difference is less than 10 so I have Denver less than a point ATS in this game. Pick-em.

Actual Vegas Line -1 N.J


PASS FOR ME
---------------------------------

Cleveland @ Charlotte

Cleveland has a 77% chance with Charlotte
Charlotte has only 20%

There is a 57 difference (77-20=57) 1 point for every occurrence of 10 makes Cleveland a -5.7 point ATS.

Actual Vegas Line Cleveland -6

Line makes for an even game—I PASS

-----------------------------------------
Dallas @ New York

Dallas has 73%
New York 12.5%

Difference here is 60.5 (73%-12.5%=60.5) I have Dallas 6.5 point ATS

Actual Vegas Line Dallas -8

If there weren’t any other games I would chance New York as my line doesn’t support laying the points with Dallas. However there are more to look at so I PASS.
---------------------

Philadelphia @ Detroit

Philadelphia 20%
Detroit 82%

Detroit is -6.2 point ATS

Actual Vegas Line Detroit -8

Possible play with Philadelphia, but looking for a better situation.
-----------------------

New Orleans @ Memphis

New Orleans 40%
Memphis 28%

New Orleans is -1.2 point ATS

Vegas Line New Orleans -1

PASS
---------------------------------------


LA Clippers @ Chicago

LA Clippers 33%
Chicago 66%

Chicago -3.3 ATS

Actual Vegas Line Chicago -7.5

I will take the points with the Clippers..BET
----------------------

Golden State @ Utah

Golden State 45%
Utah 55%

Utah -1 point ATS

Actual Vegas Line Utah -7

Golden State with the Points. BET
------------------------

Indiana @ Houston

Indiana 14%
Houston 60%

Houston -4.6 ATS

Actual Vegas Line Houston -10

Indiana with the points. BET

------------------------------

Minnesota @ Phoenix

Minnesota 50%
Phoenix 79%

Phoenix -2.9 ATS

Actual Vegas line -12

All over Minnesota here. BET
---------------------------------

Washington @ Portland

Washington 45%
Portland 53%

Portland less than a point ATS

Vegas Line Washington -3

PASS


To determine who I will back I simply look for value.


NO Bets tonight

Unable to make these bets..on delay until 3-21-07

Bankroll remains at $18,500.00 for Wednesday.

Steve

Steve
03-21-2007, 03:37 PM
Results would have been

Won 2
Push 1
Lost 1

Cannot play tonight either, but the dog play would be Charlotte with the points

Steve

Steve
03-21-2007, 10:54 PM
Charlotte Won.

Steve

Steve
03-23-2007, 08:26 AM
Friday March 23rd Early line


New Jersey -1
Orlando

Miami -1
Indiana

Denver
Toronto -3.5

Charlotte -1
Philadelphia

Portland
Atlanta Even

Dallas -7
Boston

New York
Cleveland -5

Detroit
San Antonio -5

LA Lakers -2
New Orleans

Minnesota -3
Seattle

Utah -2.5
LA Clippers

Washington -1
Golden State

After comparing my line to Vegas here are the plays with our bankroll.

New Jersey Take the points
Charlotte Take the points
Minnesota Take the points
Washington Take the points

Steve

Steve
Trackwinners