Looking For Live Longshot Winners

[emshorts]

hello to all. new to this site. not much of a handicapper. i like to play mid to high betting longshots. have had my share of good hits but mostly misses. looking for live longshot winners for superfectas at the following tracks. turfway, beulah, oaklawn, turf paradise & hawthorne. anyone's insight would be greatly appreciated. thanks

[ken]

Just this idea- research or otherwise find a way to calculate which races are most vulnerable (unpredictable) at each track and work on one or more longshots in those races.
For example- maybe routes; maiden claimers or starters; favorite is wrong running stye type; top 3 contenders may be bet big on some races and longshots underbet; trainer specialties or % favors your LS.
I go only by statistics.

[trifecta mark]

According to Davidowitz at the 2004 DRF handicapping expo...look for some dynamic change. Something that might make a difference in today's outcome that may be overlooked by the public. Just don't dismiss a horse with some talent because he is in a different scenario. You may want to be skeptical with "odds on" horses trying to accomplish something they have never done...but be more generous and open with your thinking for longer shots. You may uncover a live one. Examples: turf to dirt...a young sprinter stretching out...more early speed showing up in last race or in the workouts...first or second time lasix...blinkers added... jockey switch...a new track... a new trainer.....a horse "cycling back into form... a different surface... etc etc. A horse with solid early speed and the top Beyer figures are there for everyone to see. A steady diet of those will lead you to the poor house because of the takeout and low odds. Some are more vulnerable than others.