Going To The Dance

[HORSEMASTER520]

I have qualified to participate in the national handicapping contest in vegas does anybody have any tips or suggestions?

[Chuck]

Regarding tournament play....what tips are you looking for? I started playing tournies this year.....anything with prize money between 25k and a million. I placed in the top three places in each, winning 3. I had a free play in Vegas this weekend and gave it to my partner with some solid picks. No way was I leaving the 80's of Tampa, even for that!! She is new to the game and its difficult to communicate with cell phones in the game room, so we missed a few bets I would have made but she ended up 23rd out of 1000 top players. If I had gone, I genuinely believe I would have won.

So the bottom line is I understand what its like to be NEW to this, yet I have been successful so I would be happy to help any of you that want to try your hand at this DIFFERENT game.

Just let me know what you understand and don't and I can take it from there.

Seriously, it is far different than what you might be used to playing the horses in the normal course of a day. Depending on the type of player you normally are, it can be culture shock. I consider myself a "grinder." I play the races everyday...Tampa, NYRA circuit, Florida tracks, LD, Oaklawn, the California tracks and Mountaineer. I never set out looking for price horses. If I find one here and there, great. But I grind. I live in the 7-5 to 3-1 range. Punt at 5-1 to 8-1 and have to see a real angle at 10-1 or better.

Major tournament play would humble me with that logic. I wouldn't finish EVER in the top half. I'd make money betting my picks during the game but lose out on points. If I played everyday like I do in the tournaments, heck, maybe I'd make money some days but I don't think I am stable enough to watch my picks finish off the board more often than not. I prefer to cash close to half my tickets and that isn't going to happen in tournament play.

So tell me what you need to know and maybe I can help.

[Steve]

Horsemaster520,

First CONGRATULATIONS from all of us at Track Winners. Please keep us posted as to how it goes and your experiences in the tournament. Proud to have you as a member.

A great thing about a Forum is that almost all participants share the passion and are eager to help others. I haven’t entered the tournament trail myself, but I see that Chuck has offered any assistance that you may seek.

By the way Chuck, I was really rooting for you yesterday and I told Jay if there is anyone I know that could take the tournament it would be you. Sorry to hear that a few bets at the end got you for one reason or another. However, 23rd does have many bragging rights, but knowing you it is the trophy or nothing. TrackWinners will be following your progress next time out. I know you are itching for the trail to begin again already.

Steve
TW

[Chuck]

Well at least I got beat by a flaw in my handicapping ability rather than by a management isssue. I was trying to hit 3000 points and leave myself 3 plays when I reached that level. I figured 3000 would get me solid in first and I could play conservatively to protect the lead and closeout the win. The 9th race at AQ had my best play on all cards for the day....Greg Matties horse going off at 43-1. Since Matties entire gambling syndicate was in Vegas at the touney and playing their hearts out...it didn't take a guru to figure their horse would be LIVE. Son of a gun got beat the last few jumps by the 8 and while my pockets received a wonderful exacta and tri windfall, my game card only received the $35 place price rather than the win as well. That set me back on my heels....and as you guessed I had to punt the last three plays on 20-1 shots I didn't really like. It's the game, man. If I had been there on site I would have adjusted earlier and could have closed out the win with a solid Frankel horse later in the card. The flip side is the entire week playing with real money was an enormous success....the best I have had since the second week in February last year, over a 300% ROI on an awful lot of action. You take the good with the bad.

As far as responding to those interested in tournament play my FIRST recommendation is that the initial piece of research you do is on how many points the winners have had in the last couple events in that venue. That is CRITICAL. While the past does not equal the future, always, it can give you a darn close approximation to it. In my mind Tourney play involves what I call OBJECTIVE ORIENTED PLAY. If you just enter the show and start betting what you like, you are sunk. You'll never get the points needed. If you start throwing long shots in helter skelter, you'll never hit enought to get the points. You need to see what it will take to win.....first.

Lets make it simple. A one day event. 100 points would have won it the last two times. You get the WP price for a $2 bet on ech of 10 selections.

Theoretically if you played 5-1 shots and got back 12 +6 for each you hit you'd need half of them to hit to get close. Not going to happen. So you need to look at the horses you like best that day that fit in 5-1/8-1 category, the 10-1/15-1 category and the 20-1 plus category. Then evaluate them in order of how well you really like their chances. If you don't cash 3 tickets that day you are probably dead so hopefully you can find a couple very playable 20-1 shots and one hits.....that leaves you with 60 or more points and 7-8 plays left. Now you can go into management level. There are four others between 10 and 15 to 1. One hits and gives you 35 points. Well, you are right there near 100. You have 3-4 plays left and hopefully a couple races at 3-4 tracks to choose from. Now, research the room and see where you are in the leader board. Don't get too conservative but now you can look at the 4 or 5 to 1 horses that you might really, really like. Hit one...you are home. If you have nothing you like in the 20-1 category..don't force the bets. Live in the mid category but recognize you have to hit 2-3 to be live at the end. One big winner gives you breathing room but I have won without a bomb in the past.

See....its all managing the play based on the points you NEED to win (history tells you that) and what your handicapping is telling you the races are offering you that day.

Without a clear notion of what point total you are shooting for, you can't plan and, seriously, your success is random.

And that is true, my friends, for all play at the track. Make a Objective based on history. Even if it is to break even and have fun!!

Personally, I look at cycles. The end of January starts a new cycle for me. Horses at tampa have a couple over the track. Mountaineer is open again. The speed meeet is in swing at AQ. I expect to return 12% on the dollar until Spring when a new cycle begins. The real Kentucky opens, Belmont changed the game in NY, California becomes playable and even Calder makes some sense at the start. Mountaineer dewinterizes the track and most impotantly the babies start running everywhere. I expect to get 18-24%return on the dollar, increasing it until late October to mid November when I try to break even until mid December. December till late January I try not to LOSE more than 10-15% on the dollar. That's right. I am playing to lose. I know its going to happen. I accept it, back off, stay sharp so when the happy cycle starts I am fresh and ready.

Having those parameters makes it real to me. I play to my strengths....young horses especially NY and Florida breds. Your strengths might be different, i.e. grass races. Me, I would prefer to mow it down to dirt......kind of like LD or Hollywood turf....ha.

Anyway.....all the great players I know set objectives for their play. I know one huge Pick player. He ROUTINELY hits a pick 6.....once sometimes twice a week. I have seen him cash well over a million in a single week. More than once. Me, I avoid the picks like the plague. I hate them. They mess with my head. Maybe soon, but not today. Anyway, the interesting thing about my NY buddy is despite our wildly dissimilar play he has his objectives too and they are almost exactly my own. Over the years he has arrived at the exact same conclusions as I did.....you can beat the game over time between 10-25 percent ROI even though we arrived at that through completely different strategies.

Steve, can add to this. Without Objective you'll find yorself in that row boat without an oar. Maybe he can outline his general objectives and others he might know......for those of your serious about handicapping and more importanly GAMBLING on horses.....you'll never support your habit let alone make a living at it without a real objective. The object can change over time but without a destination you'll never get on the road to anywhere.....heck, you'll be like most everyone eles at the track.

[Steve]

Chuck,

Absolute Great Post and insight to the game. Many years ago--during a low point of my life--I would start my day with a cup of coffee and turn on the tape player and listen to Earl Nightingale explain life. I learned a lot from those tapes. Aside from his famous "Diamond Mine" story my favorite would be when he spoke of planning ones life course. The point was that you must know where you are headed first or you will never get there without that plan. His reference was to that of a ships captain leaving a harbor. Without a plan and course he was doomed.

So, when compared to this sport the same holds true. You must have a plan. In that plan you must use knowledge of the game and money management to succeed and that plan must contain a clear goal. Without those tools your ship is doomed in the harbor.

Steve
TW

[ranchosantiago]

Eloquent, truthful and pragmatic enough said, thanks Chuck. Oftem times I fall off the wagon, lose concentration and can't get past a bad beat either by a bad ride or just got nosed out by a better horse. Then, you become irrational however it,s funny beause today I promised myself to stay focus more than previously it works. Set your goals and stay focused.

On another note, what about starting a Tournament Players Club just like Tennis, Golf etc. etc. That'll give us a voice to those who run the tournaments. Official websites with sign in memberships, fees, priveleges,
by-laws, rules, sanctions, codes of conduct etc. etc. etc. We can have a green jacket like the Masters in Augusta ! or the big trophy @ Wimbledon,
U.S. open Title, handicap ratings, levels of tournament plays and not just open all the time. On any day Andy Beyer will outclass any of us anytime, beginners in handicapping tournaments all the way up to the big leagues of big money tourney. How about something like a golf tourney with 4 top players going for really big money the name escapes me now anyway, I would be the first to sign up.

This way we could have clout with the racetracks, casinos that all of us enjoy to play ! That's been a dream but i'm only one person !

what do you guys think ?

[Chuck]

Excellent ideas. Like all great ones though, sometimes they die in the weeds due to lack of implementation. And I have been around long enough to know thaat amont the "powers to be" in racing won't be implementing anything helpful to the better or even growth oriented for the sport that is better friendly. Here is the truth.....between myself a select few friends that I know internationally, we make up in excess of 100 million in annual handle. Now that isn't BS, one player alone does 30-50 million a single year. If we played that amount of money on Black Jack with less than a 2% house edge we'd have a jet waiting at our doorstep. Racetracks..with a 14-20% house edge...we are lucky to get a free lunch at most spots. No...it's not all the tracks faults....a lot of it lays with State legislative bodies. I always feel welcome at OTB in the capital of New York. The CEO and VP there are great people and I love them like brothers. But they are handcuffed on what the law allows them to do for me and anyone contributing to their economic health. By the way, they are new members of this forum and I would love all of you to hear their frustrations. And Tampa is great too. The management here helps as much as a they can as well. So...its changing a little. Bright guys like the heads of New York OTB and the GM of Tampa are trying to change things for the better but we, as bettors, are still second class citizens and we are the ones that fund the sport. Whether you bet $2.00 or 2000 dollars, it like the telethons say....every little bit helps build the totals.

What better way to stimulate "sales" at the racetrack than great contests. Events that are competitive with a variety of rules formats. Tracks have no imaginations though. Nor do the racebooks at the casino. This weekend at the handicapping world series in vegas....it was near impossible to make a live bet for tourney players. How stupid is that? Put 1000 top players and their posse together and make it impossible for them to bet. Ok, there goes the 12-13 percent casino rake right down the tubes. Why? So they can get the money from a few throws of dice later at night? Crazy.

Anyway.....I love your ideas and there needs to be a Players Association because NO ONE represents us. The jocks have their guild, the trainers have the HPBA.....the two groups with totally terrible representation, Steve you and I both belong to. Owners and Players. I have horses at 6 different tracks right now. And I gamble every darn day. If any one out there cares what I think....it's one of you! Wild! Makes me want to take up cooking some days.

[Steve]

Just want to add a note that Chuck is known by several of us at TW and he speaks the truth concerning handle with himself and friends.

In addition, I couldn't agree more with his thoughts and observations. We have absolutely no representation.

Steve
TW

[Chuck]

Sorry to you all about the some of the spelling/typos in my previous post. You will learn that the more mistakes I make in typing, the more aroused and passionate that I am about a reply.....and what the previous poster brought up as great ideas gets me about as passionate as I can get.....well, about horse racing that is.

Hey, that brings up a great point actually. How can we as players expect to ever get anything decided by the racing authorities when they actually spend time arguing over whether they are involved in "horse racing" or "horseracing".

That is a fact....the arguement of whether it is one word or two has raged in racing for at least the last couple years. Mike C., tell them, I speak the truth. Geez...let's flip a coin and get on with it.

[michaelc]

The one thing Chuck does is speak the truth. And as far as "horseracing" or "horse racing", up our way in Northern New York it all depends on just who is flipping the coin...

And as far as Chuck's spelling, well -- his wayward spelling is all I've got for now -- it's either read his emails or now look to the Trackwinners forum. I'm up here in the cold wading in a foot of snow and he's down in Tampa sunbathing with the alligator. I'm up here attending government sponsored Ad Hoc Committee meetings, and if this were during normal weather times Chuck today would have been waiting for me in our VIP betting room wondering what went on. Now, instead, he's going to have to read the headlines, and trust me -- there is going to be headlines in the Bloodhorse and all the New York papers tomorrow. You think you get Chuck wound up and passionate in these forums.. wait until you get the opportunity to actually sit in a VIP room (or at a table at Tampa Bay) and get his total take on racing. On this site to date he has yet to even begin to scratch the surface.

Ah, yes, I can't wait and get Chuck's reaction tomorrow, tomorrow when everybody reads New York State has got some racing problems (which I assume everybody already knows) and this AM Magna waltzed into Albany portraying itself as the galloping Knight riding Afleet Alex and ready to save thoroughbred racing in New York State. The politicians that Chucks speaks swallowed the "kool-ade" whole!

I give you credit, Chuck... this is the first time I ever responded to a forum! At the moment I have the same, similar feelings as the day I cashed my first IRS ticket. If anybody is really interested I'm sure Chuck would be glad to laugh his way through yet another hour of describing his version of the event.

And, Chuck, the last time I check this page there was a "spell check" attached. As one NYS "upstater" to another -- use it!!! I'm embarrassed!.

[Mister Sanderson]

This is the best forum I've read since I've been on here. I'm kinda young and have a photogenic mind when it comes to the sport, and the day to day grind at the track. I've so often abandoned plans in the past when the day turned bad. And it has cost me. I have confidence that I know more about individual horses and handicapping than anyone. But I often let my ego get in the way. I'm young at 28, and have just began to realize how much I have to learn, about capping and life. Anyway, my point is eluding me.... thanks, Chuck & co., it was worth the read..

[horseplayer]

All- I am so glad to be a part of this forum and appreciate being able to exchange thoughts and ideas with Players so willing to share. Keep up the Great posts. It would really be nice to have a real time thread for those willing to join in and contribute in real time as time permits.

[Mister Sanderson]

I have qualified to participate in the national handicapping contest in vegas does anybody have any tips or suggestions?

How'd it go? How many competitors? ARE YOU ON ESPN ON SUNDAY? I think the show is on for an hour or so, about the tournament.

[mister zesterhouse]

Now keep it going <><><><><><><><><><><><>>><><><<>>>><><><><>

HORSE PLAYERS ORGANIZE TO SAVE A DYING INDUSTRY