Luck or Handicapping???

[Rudy]

... This past Saturday Tampa Bay Downs held its 1st Round of its annual handicapping contest..A retired woman was tops in the contest.Her handicapping was based on breeding and jockeys,no racing form. Just the Tampa Program (which can be used to wrap small fish in a pinch). Her husband and I were embarassed fairly well as had done this a few years ago and went on to the Nationals in Lost Wages Vegas.He was there this year and finished 45th not bad at least they've both gone...Is it luck for someone to get in twice in the past 5 years and go on to the Nationals????Or is this a new angle I need to learn...Appreciate any comments on Luck or Skill...????

[horseplayer]

Rudy- I use EquiSim and a rating produced is called Comp. This rating is based on Jockey, Trainer, Sire, and Owner of each horse. Here are the top comp selections for 2-14-2006 for Tampa.

1st- 1 place
2nd- 12 won
3rd- 9 won
4th- 2 out
5th- 9 out
6th- 2 out
7th- 1 won
8th- 5 won
9th- 11 scratch
10th- 14 scratch
11th- 2 won

11 races- 2 scratched- 5 wins- 1 place- 3 outs. Looks like this would be and is a good factor to include in your handicapping. Looks like a very good factor to use as a confirmation of your opinion. Hope this helps to confirm your thinking as to whether or not this is handicapping or luck.

[Rudy]

Handicapper didn't get to look at the prices,but thanks for your advice never heard of it??Rudy

[horseplayer]

Rudy- Please be advised this factor by itself is not the only thing to consider and is not as predictive on a daily basis as it was yesterday at Tampa. To me the beauty of the comp rating is it takes all of the connection info into consideration and establishes a numerical rating for each individually and the comp is the sum of the best total. At a glance you can see whatever combination of those 4 factors you want to consider. For example if you want to see which horse has the best rating ( Sire/Jock ) just go down the 2 columns and see which horse has the best ( lowest ) total.