PDA

View Full Version : form after layoff?


trifecta mark
02-14-2006, 03:18 PM
The old adage not to bet a horse off a layoff seems to be past tense now that so many quality trainers space the races for their stock. Makes it harder to infer that a horse is potentially hurt or fit. In my experience ...the work out pattern may signal that a horse is still in form. Perhaps the trainers has a high percentage off the layoff...maybe it is just the begining of the meet. Is there a class drop? One of the handicapping authors suggests thet the "fabulus five" furlong work in the past two weeks must be present after a layoff. Are there any things that you witness that will make you toss or include an entry among the contenders?

Rudy
02-14-2006, 05:14 PM
............I've been at this game for over 30 years.My hadicapping has gotten better since then... The DailyRacingForm and probably Brisnet hold the keys to better handicapping. First the layoff horse ..somehorses put in there best effort or highest beyer off the bench,the racing form gives at least 10 past performances vs the Tampa BayProgram or(mullet wrappper).What happens is most betters look at the horses last race and not the one off the bench.I look at the workouts but honestly ,if I see a horse win off a layoff 2xs I'm not to concerned with works.I figure the trainer or horse will do the rest........................Second Angle...this worked at Gulfstream..Bill Mott had a horse going on the turf. Its last race showed he didn't have lasix which he regularly raced with.Hr was getting lasix back today the horse went off 5-1 and a 17-1 finished 2nd.I had a nice exacta and started a pick3 which failed in the 2nd leg..
Third angle equipment changes,Blinkers on or off I follow but not religiously.Some people also follow shoe changes..Bar shoes to me are always a negative this may indicate (foot problems). Forth angle ..Major jockey change or the jockey who wins with the horse is back on Hope these tips help they work for me occasionally as Ziadierules can testify............Rudy

ken
02-14-2006, 06:39 PM
To me if the horse had any part of 2 layoffs occur in the past 6 months it is too risky.