SPEED FIGURES vs. ACTUAL TIMES

[THE KID]

Which Is Better?
...thanks

[Rudy]

I beleive speed figures are better,than times....As its been often said time only means something if your in jail............Especially if you try to compare times from tracks such Great Lakes or Fairplex which are so called bullrings 5/8 mile tracks...Get to the rail and go fast...Times are not comparable to other tracks for the same distance due to track configurations..So finally speed ratings seem to be better..Again its difficult to take a SR from a different track and apply it another say a mile oval...............

[Eifel]

I also think final times are not as good as speed figures to compare how fast horses ran at different tracks, distances etc. Every track is different from the next, also the same track can change during the course of a day due to weather and track maintainance. So you can't compare times from different tracks. Try comparing times at different distances, for example 6 furlongs in 1:09 and 5 furlongs in :56. Can you tell which is faster? (1:09 is faster) It's much easier to look at a speed figure than trying to compare final times at various distances. Speed figures are based on speed indexes that show equivalent times for different distances and these are then adjusted for track bias. The indexes used to compare times are mathematical, but adjusting for track bias is subjective. It's important to understand therefore speed figures are not perfect but are a to a large degree based on a persons best guess how fast a or slow a track was at a given time. Sometimes I'm certain a figure in the form for a horse is too low, and since people love betting beyers, if I'm right I should get good odds. If anyone wants to know more about speed figures Andy Beyer has a couple of books that are very good and explain the making of speed figures in detail.

[Rudy]

Excellent explaination young Eifel.............May I also add Tampa finally has gotten triple digit beyers this year "a first". I beleive...Mr baked Ziti Zito should have a few horses at TBD given a triple digit beyers Sir Shackleton should given his track record 7 f race last Saturday..................

[trifecta mark]

No debate here....speed figs. The debate should be which speed figs?

[Mister Sanderson]

Times are insignificant for the most part...the time of a work means more to me than a race, and it doesn't mean too much. Speed figs are better comparatively than times, but both play a minor, minor role in my handicapping.. CLASS..BLOOD...TRAINER....TRIP...these mean so much more to me:D

[ken]

I believe most speed figures for non-winners are 1-5 points low; but they are better because raw times have nothing to compare with.

[poslla]

no debate, Ragozin Sheets.

[gestalt]

I also think final times are not as good as speed figures to compare how fast horses ran at different tracks, distances etc. Every track is different from the next, also the same track can change during the course of a day due to weather and track maintainance. So you can't compare times from different tracks. Try comparing times at different distances, for example 6 furlongs in 1:09 and 5 furlongs in :56. Can you tell which is faster? (1:09 is faster) It's much easier to look at a speed figure than trying to compare final times at various distances. Speed figures are based on speed indexes that show equivalent times for different distances and these are then adjusted for track bias. The indexes used to compare times are mathematical, but adjusting for track bias is subjective. It's important to understand therefore speed figures are not perfect but are a to a large degree based on a persons best guess how fast a or slow a track was at a given time. Sometimes I'm certain a figure in the form for a horse is too low, and since people love betting beyers, if I'm right I should get good odds. If anyone wants to know more about speed figures Andy Beyer has a couple of books that are very good and explain the making of speed figures in detail. 5f in 56 sec is 11.2 sec/f, 6f in 69 sec. is 11.5 sec/f, now which is faster?

[ken]

"5f in 56 sec is 11.2 sec/f, 6f in 69 sec. is 11.5 sec/f, now which is faster?"
Obviously 11.2 is faster. The better number is whichever one is produced with the most energy left after the race.
Speed figures, "actual times" which means only the winners' recorded tims, and losers' times based on winners' actual timed adjusted with whatever rules happened to be used by the person doing the adjusted, are meaningless unless ALL the surrounding information, data, and circumstances are figured in and all horses in question maintain health, fitness, and training until the next race and the current race is run exactly as predicted.
Otherwise, you are guessing based on whatever you use of the available information.
That is why you have to have a horse that will be sure enough to finish where needed with enough leeway to allow for the unpredictable and still profit.
That is why Beyer said you cannot go by Beyer Speed Figures alone.

[gestalt]

Which Is Better?
...thanks Both merit attention, however, the best way is to measure the change in time over a distance using 12 second furlong as a standard. The events used must be related to each other, if 1/5 sec. is used, representing 10.50 feet per 1/5, weight expressed in terms of 1/5 sec, beat lengths in terms of 1/5, variant in terms of 1/5, post change in terms of 1/5, wide in terms of 1/5, turns in terms of 1/5, trouble in terms of 1/5, proper handling of the distance factor, proper handling of the track factor, and much much more. In Grade 1,2 & 3 races, use a full run of 27 ft., and 10000 claimers a full run of 24 ft. The change measure will show those that can't run on the turn or those not fit and ready. Add some good input from Charliedog and you got it. Elwoods very good also.

[FPnvdr]

the way i look at it. if horses in race are running same times basically in there races I will then look at the horses w/ the highest speed figures in comparison to there race times.

horse a 1:09 beyer 80
horse b 1:09 beyer 70
horse a would be play for me.

[eaoa89]

The problem with speed figures is that they're "man made". I believe the original daily racing form speed figures are of more use if comparing horses who ran a different day on the same track. The problem with those is that it's hard to compare different tracks (but on the other hand Beyers figures are compiled by different people depending on the track-I've heard Marcus Hersh talk about this and it's his main problem with using Beyers)

[docicu3]

I have started to use a thoro.....product in conjunction with computer software of info very similar to Len's but much easier to read with trainer and jockey stats that I find intriguing. This combined with the mathematician in me has me some part handicapper some part computer geek and some part formula driven hoping to have a moment like Steve's 600 K hit from not too long ago....
I think the KEY is to combine luck with knowledge........when I get there I will let you know but have you used any other product like Len's????

[ken]

I still believe the faster the track on a perticular day, the more reliable the races and the more you can count on early speed/speed figures. Sometimes even the cheap speed!

[jerry]

hi friends,i beleive in speed figures.because time only counts if you are in jail. laughs.jerry