Sore Losers

[Rudy]

Shame on those who attack a man who trys to better the knowledge of handicappers by providing a forum and free contests.....We all have the ability to make choices in life..As a handicapper it is difficult in itself to calculate who will win each race...The Breeders Cup can humble the best of the best...There are large fields and usually no one horse has an advantage over another...The Daily Racing Form cappers are at the mercy of having to be weather forecasters and know what the track bias is going to be days in advance.. It is a wise man who can adapt to change...if a horse doesn't look good or the track variant is unsuitable to a horse,that change needs to be made...Since we don't have blackberrys or ways to get the info to fellow members..We don't need to take jabs at the messenger....Congrats Steve on your win...and to the fellow followers of Trackwinners..

[mister zesterhouse]

Incredible, really, to take shots at Steve with as much *free* entertainment as this man provides. So he adjusted his pick 4 play to include the rail horse in the Distaff after locating a bias and tried to beat chalks (Aragorn/Gorella/Fleet Indian/Pine Island/Hurrican Run/Cacique/English Channel/Bernardini)? You've got to be kidding me--isn't that what you're supposed to do on BC day? Maybe he should have given out the inside bias the day before the BC.

[HANK3849]

This site has given me the opportunity not only to meet some good people but take advantage of all the knowledge they have re racing. I really appreciate the way fellow members post their picks along with their strategies on the race.
It's free guys and you can take advantage or go someplace else.

[csmith]

I agree with the 3 previous post. How can you critize someone trying to help you with nothing asked in return except to participate in the TrackWinners forums. Steve puts a lot of time and effort in this project and to say something negative about his selections is hard for me to comprehend.

"SOME PEOPLE WOULD COMPLAIN IF YOU HUNG THEM WITH A BRAND NEW ROPE "

[jfey52]

nice to know that the BC can humble the best of the best...i think i was so overwhelmed by watching it live (and recovering from big event nite bef) that i made some real nucklehead betting decisions...oh i chose the right horses...im just too green yet to go beyond betting wps and shouldv stuck w/that...my bad...what is certain is keeping up w/this website (and i do keep a "trackwinners" notebook) sooner or later it will sink in...hopes for sooner...i did not do well on the BC, however i know why...now to recinnoitre
thanks once again for all of your insight, the time my fellow members take to answere my questions...i can't express how important this site has become to me...for whatever reason and how i fell in...(i feel like Alice in Wonderland) this sport has lead me to realize my passion and i so greatly appreciate the wisdom you so freely share...
and i am more than thrilled for those of you who gained a healthy ROI from the BC...

in closing...my heartfelt sympathies for Pine Island family and friends...;)

[storm95]

I also agree with the above, great site and keep up the good work.
By the way no one twists our arms to follow any ones posts, our choice.

[manassas]

I hope there are not any sore losers! It's a great site and as a shut in, Steve, I thank you. The hardest thing to do is pick a wiinner in advance not knowing weather, track conditions, bias or scratches. It's really tough. Great job, Steve, and keep up the good work.

[manassas]

I wish i had used spell check before i made my previous post

[manassas]

Thanks Jerfi i learned something new today click on edit and correct my own mistakes

[Mister Sanderson]

Shame on those who attack a man who trys to better the knowledge of handicappers by providing a forum and free contests.....We all have the ability to make choices in life..As a handicapper it is difficult in itself to calculate who will win each race...The Breeders Cup can humble the best of the best...There are large fields and usually no one horse has an advantage over another...The Daily Racing Form cappers are at the mercy of having to be weather forecasters and know what the track bias is going to be days in advance.. It is a wise man who can adapt to change...if a horse doesn't look good or the track variant is unsuitable to a horse,that change needs to be made...Since we don't have blackberrys or ways to get the info to fellow members..We don't need to take jabs at the messenger....Congrats Steve on your win...and to the fellow followers of Trackwinners..
what is this all about?? i don't follow... been a little while since ive been on here.

[scottsdad]

Mr.sanderson,let Me Bring You Up To Speed.it Seems That Some Trackwinners Members Are A Little Upset That Steve Hit The Pick4 In The Breeders Cup.apparently They Watched His Video Like They Were Going To Drink That Jimmy Jones Kool-aid After He Spoke.i Guess The Guilty Parties Never Took Into Account,race Day Conditions,track Bias,visual In The Paddock,warming Up,weather Or Any Other Variables That Make This Sport So Interesting.i Am Afraid To Tell Falafel I Hit The Late Double.

I Hope I Shed Some Light On This For You.

[johnnyboy]

Handicapping the breeder cup races was difficult indeed. I feel lucky that I only lost 30.00 bucks that afternoon. Favorites ran poorly and many a good handicapper had a bad day. But that is horse racing. Cest la vie.

[panzyjo]

TO BLAME THIS SITE , OR ANY SITE OR PERSON FOR NOT PROVIDING A WINNER IS UTTERLY RIDICULOUS....MY ADVICE TO THAT PERSON OR PERSON WHO WANTS WINNERS .........GET A CRYSTAL BALL !!!!

PANZYJO

[satisfyingwager]

I saw Steve's pick 4 tickets. He spread around - like anyone should trying to make a big score on BC day. All of his picks were on the ticket - but so where other horses that could win - and fortunately for him the ones that won were prices.

I find this very amusing.

But, those of you who are made - please don't stop betting, we are putting your money to good use. I just got back from the mall where I spent some of my Steet Sense and Round Pond money, but there's plenty left.

[genea]

For the life of me i cannot understand anyone running down Steve, i think everyone should be grateful to him and Cara,;Steve has spent a lot of Money on this site for all of us to come together ,share knowledge, make selections and get to know more about Horse racing.I am indebted to U Steve,and thanks to all of u foryour input.I won just a little at BC, but it was my fault i did not win more,,ENOUGH SAID...

[satisfyingwager]

Oh yeah - if you still have your form from Saturday go back and look at the selections from the "professional handicappers from the DRF".

I wonder if they are getting any hate mail?

[jfey52]

well im not sure where my most recent pearls of wisdom from one of the greats went...so i will send again...in hopes we can just move on...

"Men at some time are masters of their fates: The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings".
peace out...;) jax

[Jerfi]

If Steve's first four picks in that pick four would have won, I wonder how many of the dissatisfied folks would have even said a 'thank you,' let alone sending in a bit of a cash tip for a good call! :)

It's far easier to spread blame than to heap praise ....

But... most of us learned a long time ago that there's only ONE reason for losing, and we don't want to face it ... WE ERRED!

[profeg]

Hello everybody:

I concur with all of the good and constructive comments and commend all of the positive contributors to this site.

Like Steve, I was fortunate to have also changed my mind at the last minute and made adjustments to my picks which not only put some $$$ in my pocket but allow me to qualify for a spot at Brisnet's December 30the qualifier (see henryg - NJ). Was I lucky or was I a good handicapper?

Don't know the real answer, maybe the planets were lined up for me and got that lucky light (I have been a good guy recently…lol). What I do know is that I based my changes on race day conditions and specially last minute ones.

I consider horseracing handicapping a science (math and science professor) and a game of too many uncertainties and probabilities which at any given moment can affect the outcome of a race and when we are successful sometimes call we call our success” Luck".

It is still a great game and for me a great science. I am not too much of a betting person but do enter competitions- find them facilitating, intellectually stimulating, rewarding and enriching. I love handicapping a race.

It is a game where knowledge and learning go together and where one never stops learning. It's a changing game and for me a changing science.

So to attack someone because at the last minute changed his or her mind and was successful, tells me of the type of individual the criticism comes from....In other words this individual did not contribute anything positive but instead showed his true colors, acted as a poor and sore looser. I congratulate Steve for his success and am very happy for him.

In competition and in any sport (have been a sports and teaching coach most of my life) one has to learn to loose with courage and win with humbleness. Horseracing is no different. This is a sport where we loose more times that we win and believe me you must build lots of courage to become a successful handicapper.

In my opinion, a true handicapper is a professional player that accepts failures as experience and success as the reward for accepting and learning from the experiences.

I thank Steve for the great job he has done in providing this free and very informative site where we all can constantly learn about the beautiful sport of horseracing.

To all the contributors share with others your success and experiences unconditionally and without expecting anything in return. Selfishness leads to loneliness.

So, for those who attack, please help construct and build, think of others before you attack. Express opinions as a way to elevate your game and along the way help others develop theirs, only then we can consider ourselves successful.


ProfeG.

[horsesinger]

Very well said! Thank you for posting that, Professor. tro(

Cate

[Steve]

Profeg,

Thank you very much. Easy to conclude you have insight-wisdom to social interactions based on the way you express your thoughts. Curious if your expertise is in Social Sciences.

Steve

[easyluckyed]

What posting started all this????
I have read through every single reply.
Was the original posting pulled off the site, and who wrote it?
This is a free web-site, with free contests,and for that,every one of us should be grateful to Mr. Steve, whether we like him and or his views or not.
Case closed!!!!

[Jerfi]

The original posts were removed. Identities of those who posted will not be disclosed, as far as I know.

They were certainly not helpful to the forum.

[gestalt]

Hello everybody:

I concur with all of the good and constructive comments and commend all of the positive contributors to this site.

Like Steve, I was fortunate to have also changed my mind at the last minute and made adjustments to my picks which not only put some $$$ in my pocket but allow me to qualify for a spot at Brisnet's December 30the qualifier (see henryg - NJ). Was I lucky or was I a good handicapper?

Don't know the real answer, maybe the planets were lined up for me and got that lucky light (I have been a good guy recently…lol). What I do know is that I based my changes on race day conditions and specially last minute ones.

I consider horseracing handicapping a science (math and science professor) and a game of too many uncertainties and probabilities which at any given moment can affect the outcome of a race and when we are successful sometimes call we call our success” Luck".

It is still a great game and for me a great science. I am not too much of a betting person but do enter competitions- find them facilitating, intellectually stimulating, rewarding and enriching. I love handicapping a race.

It is a game where knowledge and learning go together and where one never stops learning. It's a changing game and for me a changing science.

So to attack someone because at the last minute changed his or her mind and was successful, tells me of the type of individual the criticism comes from....In other words this individual did not contribute anything positive but instead showed his true colors, acted as a poor and sore looser. I congratulate Steve for his success and am very happy for him.

In competition and in any sport (have been a sports and teaching coach most of my life) one has to learn to loose with courage and win with humbleness. Horseracing is no different. This is a sport where we loose more times that we win and believe me you must build lots of courage to become a successful handicapper.

In my opinion, a true handicapper is a professional player that accepts failures as experience and success as the reward for accepting and learning from the experiences.

I thank Steve for the great job he has done in providing this free and very informative site where we all can constantly learn about the beautiful sport of horseracing.

To all the contributors share with others your success and experiences unconditionally and without expecting anything in return. Selfishness leads to loneliness.

So, for those who attack, please help construct and build, think of others before you attack. Express opinions as a way to elevate your game and along the way help others develop theirs, only then we can consider ourselves successful.


ProfeG. Nice analysis: Are you familiar with Dr. Eliot Sober, or the Akaike Framework? Specifically, how models (cladograms) are used to make predicitions.

[profeg]

Hi Steve:

Thanks for the kind words.

No I am not into social science I am a Math (love Math science) and Science professor (teach computers - college level and adult education); however because of what I do, I deal with a lot with people especially young adults (teaching and coaching sports).

In teaching one must always understand that to make a point effective one must not only entertain the audience but also interject the subject matter in a way that is enjoyable to keep them interested.

Because of this experience (25 years) I've learn to understand how to make a point and make it count. There are many ways to skin a chicken (Like cats...and dogs...lol) and when teaching or coaching we must find out what makes each student tick and use that to make help them learn and be more productive.

So thanks for the comment and I thank you for putting this great site together.

Henry G

[profeg]

Hi Gestal:



Nice analysis: Are you familiar with Dr. Eliot Sober, or the Akaike Framework? Specifically, how models (cladograms) are used to make predictions.


Are you a math teacher or professor?

I am not completely familiar with the concept, but I believe that is a model to study and analyze not only factual systems but systems that can predict outcomes based on certain theories. I remember studying something along these lines when modeling outcome theories. Is a way to studies and ascertain theories.

I'll read more about. Any ideas you are working with?

I'll do a search in Google and get more on it.

Any ideas as to where to go?

I recently and thanks to this site came across the information below which after doing some searching found it to be very interesting. I am the processing of getting a copy of the book and become more familiar with mathematical modeling, like the concept.

“Jai-Technology: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win (http://www.cs.sunysb.edu/~skiena/jaialai) -- We have developed a system to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches, a sport on which it is legal to gamble in parts of the United States. Biases inherent in the "Spectacular Seven" scoring system can be exploited to profitably bet on it. Thoroughly documented bets show we increased our initial stake by 544%. These experiences are being reported in my book Calculated Bets (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0521009626/thealgorithmrepo), published by Cambridge University Press. A related video (http://www.cvc.sunysb.edu/skiena) is available online. We have also started a little project on horse racing (http://www.cs.sunysb.edu/~skiena/horse).”

I also saw some data on their horse racing study but I think is inconclusive. Would like to follow up with the professor and see where he is at.

One thing I would like to say and is that mathematics offers a great way to make a sensible analysis of just about everything in life; however when it comes down to horse racing, it is almost impossible to come up with any model that is completely bullet proof and that offers a consistent rate of success.

Mathematics can possibly model a system that has a positive ROI but it can never determine the result of each and every race and still generate a consistent ROI.

The simple reason for this, there are too many human and non-human factors that can determine the outcome of any race. I look at math and computer programs as means and vehicles to help in narrowing the possibility of failure and to help me come up with an intelligently choice.

In other words, it comes down to you and only you...likes, dislikes. Believe in what you do and think and don’t forget that we are all human, this fact makes us all different from each other and for that simple reason we may all have different ways to accomplish our goals.

So, whatever system your system is, if it works the stick with it, if it does not; find out why it does not and make it better. Always believe in what you do.

Change not always lead to success but accepting and believing in what we have, can always be adjusted to accomplish the same success. Live and learn from all on this board, there is so much experience here and their opinions and ideas are totally free.

So, get ideas, investigate new concepts, apply them, create your own system,stick with it and make it work for you.

Henry G.

[gestalt]

Sir, you have made my day. Mans inhumanity to mankind is not part of your value system and this interaction is one of many reasons I prefer this site. I am RIT, 1957 -1962, chemistry major, math minor, retired. I have a cladode, with chaos being part of the events, and am enjoying much success with it. Needs more polish and the idea is labor intensive. Thank you for your insights and am looking forward to more contact.

[profeg]

Hi Gestal:

I am RIT, 1957 -1962, chemistry major, math minor, retired.

Email me through this board, send me a private message....would like to continue talking about math and how it can be applied to make horse sense.

I'm a Poly Grad '76 NYU then, major Electrical Engineering/Computer Science. Great to know that there are Engineers and math people on this site.

Had a chance to look at Sobel and the Akaike Framework and will read more about it. Also found a couple good articles on Curve fitting and also one with Bobel and Forster. Good weekened reading.

I'm not much into modeling yet, but have written my own program that analyzes the factors I consider most critacal which are based on Speed (1st call), Pace(2nd call), Late(3rd call) and Finish fractions. I have added another factor Form and is used as as separate analysis criteria.

The program goes through an algorithm that basically calculates these factors and then ranks them based on my own criteria. I only look at the top 4-5 horses. The Odds is a major determining factor. I take the top horse regarless of odds, the lowest odds and then from the rest I just look at who offers the best value and the best chance to win; angles form, likes. I try to keep each race within 3 horse, 4 at most.

I consider the last 3 past performances and they have to be races where the horse ran at today's surface and distance. Unless there is not enough data and I go deeper.

Since I am a believer of Pace and Form I place more enphasis on these two factors. I compare conditions and results. Last, I add the Angle factor which has to do with the connections Jockey/trainer.

Remember, I am not a gambler, I liek to handicap races. My best bet is the pick 3 and the pick 4.

Where are you located?

I'm a New Yorker but moved to Jersey in 1981.

I now live and work in NJ.

It is my pleasure to be part of this board and let's keep in touch.

Henry G.

[madmartha]

I use to have a jaundiced view of anyone passing of his tips.
Lately, however, those like our Steve, here and Matt Carrothers
on TVG mean well and, at the same time, are educating the
public how to play those more complicated exotic tickets.
I'm learning from this site to be less "skeptical".
Most of us here are passionate about our handicapping and
to find others, likewise, is less frustrating. Its like a "club"
for us where we belong and fit in.
THAT ANYONE WOULD ATTACK STEVE FOR SHARING HIS
PICKS - DOESN'T BELONG HERE!

[madmartha]

RE: to most of the members on Page One of this thread, I agree
and to jfey52, don't give up on those so-called "knuckle-
headed decisions". learn from your mistakes. bet less.
observe. take notes. be happy. you'll be prepared the
next time out. it doesn't have to take alot of spending
of money to enjoy this game. this can be like taking a
class on horseracing. study, study, study and you'll be
a big winnerbc(

[Jerfi]

MadMartha,

Your word 'tips' is so very descriptive! A 'tip' is just an opinion ... and can be changed on a whim, or on a revelation, or on an inspiration, or on a very relevant fact.

And, a tip given 2 days prior to a race becomes even more subject to being overturned at race time. All of us have had races where we intended to bet this way, and bet that way on the basis of last minute information... sometimes to our joy, and sometimes to our jeers!

Tips are just that .... and normally not quite worth what they cost! :)

[horsesinger]

Professor: Please consider starting a new discussion on this site RE: turning math into horse sense.

Cate