free thought

[guillermo1205]

lets begin by saying; no doubts the best bets; straight bets; win, place and show; but the big money or i would say majority of players bet exactas, trif. or supers and whatever more. big publications and big masters of the game make money by giving information to all these players. in the long run there is not one that can tell me somebody made money from that information; why? the big money is made by trainers, owners, jockeys; the bussiness by itself; meaning more race tracks which are controlled by a privilaged group of people which already have a lot of money, people tha work inside or with the track getting good information most of the time; i , could say a well organized bussiness; a lot lot of regulars use the word maffia, but what tey really mean is well organize bussiness. since i started betting on horses {about 25 years ago] my main goal was to find out how this bussines was organize; how how is legally accepted that in a five horses race; an exacta paid 250.00 dollars; this is really incredible 93% of bettors are tricked by odds; masters; jockeys; all information was wrong; everybody forgets and keep betting; think about it anything over 100.00 dollars exacta almost 90% of bettors are wrong. once in las vegas i found tickets for 45,000 dollars; this person bet in one race 25,000 on show; i did look for replay; the horse was last almost all the race; last 100 meters he started running like a crazy one; he came fourth. is it an accident; i dont believe that; i can really say this bussiness is controlled; every body in it knows what to do at every time with out anyone telling them what to do; that is why a legal bussiness; jockeys are brainwash by the invisible system; i they can not learned they have to go some other places; they are the ones that make people crazy; they are the ones that play with people's minds; you fall in love with them you are done; they have to know their percentages; they cant go over; otherwise is not good for bussines; anyway it is all good as long as you can make money from it; 93% are loosers; what do we do? for most this is the only intellectual challenge they ever have; it is an addictive activity, trying to beat the system which 90% will not do ever. it is a lot more challenging to handicap than to find the power of numbers; odds; sets; spread; prices; basically percentages. every single move in one day racing is based on percentages; handicapping creates and confuse bettors; it creates the spread on betting; well i wiil continue tomorrow. my plesure forever.

[ken]

The purpose for there being 1 or more organizations in racing is to prduce more competition; If too many people pick correct racing interest will decline because payoffs will be too low. Ideally what racing wants is photo finishes eveyday, and longshots to win sometimes.
Whether intentional or accidental, racing evens the playing field by: Having para-mutuel betting; A weight system; giving certain information to the public but not other information; not timing all contestants; allowing certain drugs; having race conditions for age, sex, wins, claiming, purse levels, distance; rules of conduct; various track width, sizes, surfaces, depths, compositions; types of bets; licensing; horse registration and record keeping; Program odds; different methods for figuring out and presenting figures for a horse's speed.
The reason behind certain things in racing is baffling. There is no reason at all in a para-mutuel betting set up, with the track and state taking their share up front, to need an M/L or program odds except to influence bettors and help less knowledgeable bettors, but that is none of the track's business except increasing the pools.
There is no reason to limit the timing of all horses at the wire- except to produce uncertainty.
It does not make sense to me to claim 1 or 2 lbs of weight makes a big difference- then give 7 lbs less weight to a bug who has spent many years in Latin America racing.
A horse can have crossed the wire first and be disqualified many times, have a MD win, have as many Cl or starter wins as it wants, but if it has a win at the lowest ALW cass it cannot run!
Many times horses are tried on turf for 1 time but there is no race condition that says "Must never have won on TURF" so they can try a new surface without being penalized for winning on dirt.
Allowing many drugs for the same purpose- relieve pain- just adds to the confusion. Horses can be injected with dozens of pain relievers- but humans are told just to take 2 Tylenol!
Bettors are deludged with information that has no basis in fact and not verified with statistics and go for it because many are addicted to race betting and cannot look objectively and do not study the long term results of their betting patterns.
But so what? It is the individual bettor's responsibility to only bet the races they are good at handicapping; not to bet all races like they are all the same; be intelligent enough to figure out that 8' for 1/5 second = 16.5 seconds per furlong; figure out that when the M/L or programm says there are 3 horses at 10-1 and 4 at 20-1 that that is a wild guess and there may be overlays there; that when the track condition listing goes from Wet fast to Sloppy to Muddy something may be happening; when one day the track is very light brown and the next day it is almost black and clods instead of dust is being thrown up the surface may have changed.
My point is, it is racing's job to do what it takes to try and make a race unpredictable and competitive and the bettor's job to sepeate horses out again according to their true chances of winning and true odds to bet them. I prfer that to sticking quarters in a slot machine.
But to say that everybody connected to racing except bettors is working together to fix racing is the same as saying they are purposely trying to ruin all the hard work they have done to make it competitive and are trying to get people to bet less. Just the opposite is true. Bettors spending money is what racing dsperately depends on.

[ken]

You have to seperate out any information you run across to know what is useful and what is not. Insiders may have more accurate information about how some horses are doing because they watch workouts and work around them, but may not know about the competition too much. You have to know how to interpret what you hear and read.
Whenever Bob Baffert says the least uncertain or negative thing about one of his horses, I dump it becuse it most likely will lose.
Whenever I see the DRF say a horses was out of training more than once in the last 6 months I dump it (like today's GreenhillHail SA race 1 #1- it may win, but I will not bet it!). PM me if you want sources of certain information online.