Keep It Simple Stupid

[Simulcaster]

Keep It Simple Stupid or K.I.S.S.
When Handicapping we are all guilty of thinking too much.
For Example, Before Keeneland's 9th races on Saturday Oct. 21st. I knew that the owner/trainer combo of "First Class stable, llc & Helen Pitts" had a win/place percentage of 60%. The price on their horse was "#6 Leah's Secret" was right, 20/1 on the morning line and 18/1 at post time. But while handicapping I kept looking for ways that the horse might lose and then did not use Leah's Secret when I made my bets. Of course Leah's secret won and keyed a $490.00 exacta.
My question are.
How do we keep from over thinking while handicapping?
Is there too much information available?

Most importantly, When do we stop handicapping a race?

[Jerfi]

Well, my way quite obviously won't work for everyone, but here's my basic method. I scan each racing program .. .takes about 2 minutes, or less, to do that, thanks to computers.

If there's a race that looks promising, I mark it, and will spend some time on it. If there's not a readily obvious superior horse, I pass the race. Today, for example, I had 10 marked. Then I will toggle those races, only, to watch the odds.

If the odds look promising, I'll then make a bet. Otherwise, just wait for the next race.

Out of the 10, today, 2 have scratched, and I will be very surprised if I actually get a bet in, today.

Yesterday, I had only 4, and the day before, (Saturday), 5 bets, only.

So! for me, being patient is hard... but worthwhile.

[ken]

If I catch myself doing much math I am overhandicapping.

[gestalt]

Does the handicapping process involve money management? If so, so be it, however, putting the money down is a process that separates each of us. I believe it is the secret to winning at the races. Picking and playing the various exotics can run into lots of dough. I was killing them when my average payoff was 450 bucks for a trifecta, hit 17 out of 21 one month a few years ago. Today, those tris pay less than a 100. Try to, when I can toss the first two choices, pick the spots that work, it is darn tough. I will stick to the bankroll idea, a percentage of the bank for my prime bets, and some small action bets, those small action bets now include the exotics. I do not treat the pick 3 as an exoctic. When the bankroll is sufficient, a $20 bill on your bomb at 18 to 1 can be a lot of fun. I would like to see a list of winning names collecting those superfecta payoffs over $5000.00. Pick another one, go for it.

[Jerfi]

My hat is off to anyone who can make money in the exotics, week in and week out.

I know that if someone catches a $5,000 payoff, that will keep him in bets for a few days, for sure .... but, it would seem to me, as pointed out above, that with the average trifecta paying a lot less, now, than 20 years ago, it would take a Herculean effort to post a positive ROI, consistently.

Is there anyone here, who can generate $1,000 a week playing exotics, every week? .... or .. $5,000 per month, even suffering a bad week here and there?

I'm sure willing to learn!

[kelleywm]

Keep It Simple Stupid or K.I.S.S.
When Handicapping we are all guilty of thinking too much.
For Example, Before Keeneland's 9th races on Saturday Oct. 21st. I knew that the owner/trainer combo of "First Class stable, llc & Helen Pitts" had a win/place percentage of 60%. The price on their horse was "#6 Leah's Secret" was right, 20/1 on the morning line and 18/1 at post time. But while handicapping I kept looking for ways that the horse might lose and then did not use Leah's Secret when I made my bets. Of course Leah's secret won and keyed a $490.00 exacta.
My question are.
How do we keep from over thinking while handicapping?
Is there too much information available?

Most importantly, When do we stop handicapping a race?

Sounds like you are a friend of "Bill" as I. I think the easy part is coming up with the contenders. I wish I spent as much time on planning my betting as I do in the selection phase. I have been successful recently ignoring the morning line and establishing my own estimate of win chance. Then not allowing someone else's thoughts to sway my decisions. I have to have confidence in my own handicapping. To answer your specific question there can not be too much information, its like a puzzle we are putting together. The entire picture is not clear until we piece it all together. Sure you will have another opportunity and very soon.

Bill

[Jerfi]

Sure you will have another opportunity and very soon.

Bill

This one factor, of another opportunity, is the ONE thing that makes winning possible. Even after we do all our handicapping, if we will TOSS more than we bet, we will come out farther ahead.

There's always reasons to toss races ... because another one IS coming.

This week, for example: I had NO bets on Monday or Tuesday, only 2 on Wednesday, one of which bombed, NONE on Thursday, one on Friday that hit, and from a quick glance, may have ONLY one tomorrow.

But... there are days when I have 5 or 6. They will come again! The thing we MUST do is wait for it.

[thoroughbred]

Whatever method is being used when you handicap a race, whether it's an angle you have spotted, or a computer result, there is almost always a probability associated with the choice, that is applicapble to the particular situation. You may not know the exact value of the probability, but, from experience most usually, at least, have a good "feel" for it.
Then try to keep in mind, that probability, obviously, doesn't assure success; there are too many factors that can bring about a loss. Looking for other horses at this point may not increase the success probability.
So, when the method you use, comes up with a horse that you feel has a good probability of winning the particular race, you might as well stop the handicapping process and go for it. Further analysis can often take you away from the winner.

[diamondjoe]

I can be one of the dumbest handicappers on the face of the earth at times. I've been to known to think way too much on one maybe two races, and if that wasn't enough, I try to bet every race on top of that. I guess I must being doing something right, if still manage to at least break even a majority of the time, but I also I've missed out on numerous opportunities to win well into the 10's of thousands.bh) I have a good degree of luck by simply glancing at the racing form for about a minute or two, and basing my wagers on contenders vs. odds, but I am analytical by nature, so its hard for me to stay in a simplicity mode. However, I do have a simple pace anaylsis program that I use, which is a compromise of sorts, and I try to focus on the races I do better at, namely turf, cheap claimers, and maiden races. Above all, I simply try to enjoy horseracing solely for the hobby that it is, and make every effort to focus my attention on other things when it becomes more than that. I don't worry too much about the big score, because it will eventually happen, as long as I keep things in their intended perspective.
Anyways, good luck to all.$)

[madmartha]

RE: to diamondjoe

Don't be so hard on yourself.
We've all been there.
With me, it's been throwing away
a recent win score based on my
previous night's hard work of handicapping -
to fritter away on jumping into any ol' race
in playing those wild exotics that never come in.

One thing I've noticed with those losses -
were at night. I seem to have bad luck
when I stayover for the night card - but,
by then I'm too tired, sleepy and headachey.
It's no wonder I've thrown my daytime winnings
away.

That's one of the reasons why I had to stop
playing Lone Star - as their races are mostly
at night. I do better playing the day tracks like
NY, FL, and KY.

Another thing, learn to p-a-c-e your playing.
It's hard, but it'll be better in the longrun.
If you have to have the "action" - watch and
take notes. Head-bet and still learn and have
fun. Don't force the playing your hard-earned
wins away.

tu? tu? tu?