Genetic Strength Value- Maiden Special Weight

[RJ Racing]

Of all races the hardest to predict and have the largest pay offs are the MSW races. I won't go into all the reasons now. If you take the time and you do the research these races can make you big money. When ever I am bidding at auction on young horses the first thing I do is figure out if the horse is bred for 2 turns or sprints. If you go to www.pedigreequery.com/ and type in the name of the horse you will get info on the horses DI ( dosage index) CD ( center of distribution) GSV ( Genetic strength value ) The lower the dosage index the farther the horse is bred to run. Lots of ways to use this info. I won't go into that now. I will point out that over the history of the triple crown no horse has ever won with a dosage index over 4.0
Ron

[jchach]

Ron, my father always told me, "Dont bet on Maiden Races". I never listened, but I am starting to pass on more of them :D

While the payoffs can be great, How does anyone bet a horse that has never run down to 4/5 ??

Thanks for the link & info.

John

[trifecta mark]

In MSW you are wise to support only three types: 1}A horse that has run a Beyer above par at the track but still didn't win in either of his last two starts. If he has had multiple chances and has regressed...the horse should be considered unreliable and avoided at low odds 2} A second time starter with good breeding that ran his first race in the same or higher class. For many...the most significant improvement comes in the second start. A second time starter in a maiden claiming race is a different sort. They have no talent and shouldn't be backed. 3} A firster with breeding, two decent workouts and having a trainer with acceptible stats. Few first time starters above 10-1 are likely to win but many that are 3-1 to 8-1 are alive....assuming none of the entries have run par or better. It is very risky to bet against swift maidens. Tomlinson numbers {particularly on the turf} are useful. I had a cocktail with him at the DRF handicapper' expo in Las Vegas. He himself actually adds the turf number with the distance number to seperate the first time entries. Be aware "Odds on" first time starters are vulnerable favorites. Inexperience defeats them even if they have a lot of talent. Many times you can achieve value in the exotics with them second or third.

[Chuck]

The absolute best prices are paid by first time State Bred sires who throw a high percentage of early winners. If you doubt that go back to 2005 in New York and look at Prime Timber and Freud. In Florida Songandaprayer among a couple others. Great prices and a majority of them get home winners within 2-3 races. Balance the bet amounts with how the particular trainer is at getting them fit. For example, in New York, Contessa had a number of Prime Timbers. He is good at getting them ready so they were nice prices first and second out. Galluscio had a couple and he is poor early so I waited until 2-3 races to load the horses. Prime Timber was so strong early I bought a few babies and am sending a couple mares up the road from my farm in Saratoga to breed to him. If you pass baby MSW races you are absolutely denying yourself one of the best sources of income from handicapping.