vtbob
02-08-2006, 09:02 AM
If you haven't read Steve Klein's The Power of Early Speed (DRF Press, NY, 2005) yet, you're missing something. It's filled with ROI data on early speed horses by track, by trainer and by jockey. We're offering a "Weighted Speed Calculator" program which was inspired by Klein's book, but uses totally different algorithms.
First of all, we don't trust early speed numbers collected from dissimilar races (routes vs. sprints or dirt vs. turf), so unlike Klein's approach, our program does not attempt to make a correction for these differences. Instead, it goes back five races, if necessary, looking for three similar races to base the calculation on. Second, we're so used to Quirin's speed points, where larger numbers are better, that our algorithm also gives larger numbers to horses showing greater early speed. The program reads single file format Past Performance files from BRIS or TSN, eliminating manually entry.
The Track Bias calculations done by this program may well be its most important feature. How may times have you searched for a reason to back another horse against a favorite that you consider vulnerable? Well, an unfavorable track bias in its last race may be just the evidence you need.
This program reads a BRIS comma-delimited results chart files and computes a Track-Bias Number for the day. Unlike the "Klein Track Bias Number", which is badly skewed, our number is balanced. The Klein number varies from 0 (Negative speed bias) to 300 (Positive speed bias) with a "fair" or "neutral" track having a value of about 80, leaving 80 points to cover negative bias and 220 to cover positive bias. Our number ranges from -200 (Negative early speed bias) to +200 (Positive early speed bias) with a neutral track falling right in the middle, at zero. You can export these daily bias numbers to a comma-delimited text file which you can quickly search with Microsoft Excel.
The Weighted Speed Calculator program is available at http://sports-bet-advantage.com for only $34.95. Members of TRACKWINNERS can take a 10% discount if they order before 3/15/2006, by entering the discount code, twmem , when ordering.
First of all, we don't trust early speed numbers collected from dissimilar races (routes vs. sprints or dirt vs. turf), so unlike Klein's approach, our program does not attempt to make a correction for these differences. Instead, it goes back five races, if necessary, looking for three similar races to base the calculation on. Second, we're so used to Quirin's speed points, where larger numbers are better, that our algorithm also gives larger numbers to horses showing greater early speed. The program reads single file format Past Performance files from BRIS or TSN, eliminating manually entry.
The Track Bias calculations done by this program may well be its most important feature. How may times have you searched for a reason to back another horse against a favorite that you consider vulnerable? Well, an unfavorable track bias in its last race may be just the evidence you need.
This program reads a BRIS comma-delimited results chart files and computes a Track-Bias Number for the day. Unlike the "Klein Track Bias Number", which is badly skewed, our number is balanced. The Klein number varies from 0 (Negative speed bias) to 300 (Positive speed bias) with a "fair" or "neutral" track having a value of about 80, leaving 80 points to cover negative bias and 220 to cover positive bias. Our number ranges from -200 (Negative early speed bias) to +200 (Positive early speed bias) with a neutral track falling right in the middle, at zero. You can export these daily bias numbers to a comma-delimited text file which you can quickly search with Microsoft Excel.
The Weighted Speed Calculator program is available at http://sports-bet-advantage.com for only $34.95. Members of TRACKWINNERS can take a 10% discount if they order before 3/15/2006, by entering the discount code, twmem , when ordering.