detecting bias

[trifecta mark]

Imagine this question has already been raised in the past....but I wonder how one can really detect a significant biased surface. Just because a couple of front runners win early in the day or meet....doesn't mean that speed is the only way to win. Front runners with an easy pace win more of their fair share. And how are we supposed to know which horses may benefit near the end of the race by being wide or inside? The jockeys are supposed to navigate the best way to the winner's circle. At the 2004 DRF racing handicapping forum....the panelists/guest track supers suggested that unless the specific track configuration at certain distances favored a particular inside or outside post....forget about it. Years ago in Davadowitz's book he said that track bias was the holy grail???? Another racing conundrum......

[ken]

Track configuration bias;
(charts) path bias;
(charts) track sectional bias.
____________
Path- check the 3 ITM horses for jockeys angling, going wide, or stretch gains.
Sectional- compare fractions of both turns to staightaways, and backstretch to homestretch.

[gestalt]

A horse like Silver Train is 5 for 7 at Belmont, 1 for 8 elsewhere, the track super can do plenty to favor or hurt the chances for a particular horse; the variations are numerous and good record keeping is mandatory. Years ago, Aqu inner track outside post on a two turn race was automatic toss, the slope and a few other adjustments negated the bias. A player not in tune with how a track plays is at a disadvantage, a track super can send a favorite to his knees right at the start, (make the post cuppy). The inside post can get tore up big time in just a few races, watch the gate crew closely, and water does lots of things. It will be interesting to see how the new Keeneland surface plays. Nice thread, Davidowitz is right, does require tremendous predicitive ability.

[ken]

As far as track crew speed variat5ions, watch LS GP, and the stretch at Hol.