Help/Advice in Capping....

[RichieC]

Got some fundamental questions and I'm seeking some wisdom from the wise. #1 Is it a good ploy to try and look at ways to beat the chalk and only play races where the chances look good to do so?
#2 Are cheap claiming races good races to try and cap or not?
#3 Is betting on more than one winner in a race a good thing and if so under what circumstances? Or not?
#4 Is across the board a good way to go? under what conditions?
#5 Are there just some tracks they can't be conquered? I've never cashed a ticket for Arlington.
#6 Is playing a hunch/feeling a viable angle or just plain stupid?
#7 Are Daily Doubles worth the risk?

Now these are some basics I've pondered. I know or think there are really no hard fast rules to capping and I will not hold anyone responsible for their advice, but would appreciate any tid-bits any of you may have. Thanks to all.

RichieC.

Stupid IS AS Stupid Does.

[crazybear]

I used to play a lot of DD's and do pretty good at hitting them.Then the last couple of years seems like the payoffs dropped a lot so i quit playing them for the most part.I have a personal tradition that on my B-day i go to OP and play my new age forwards and backwards earlyy DD's at 5 tracks.Last year i hit Calder for a $223 DD lol been doing this for about 20 yr's now have hit some very nice ones this way.like a $490 one.
I will play some hunch bets if its a strong hunch

[Jerfi]

Hey, Richie,

Thanks for the questions. I will give you my opinions, which are worth what they cost! :)

#1 Is it a good ploy to try and look at ways to beat the chalk and only play races where the chances look good to do so?

The first thing that is required is to define 'chalk.'

There are as many ways to play as there are people to play them. Before you can beat the chalk, you must know WHY the chalk is the chalk. If he is vulnerable, then there's no reason to NOT try to beat him ... IF IF IF you have a viable candidate. The chalk only wins about 37% of the time (I call chalk even money or less), so nearly 2/3 of the time, someone does beat the chalk. Finding that candidate, though, is a lot more difficult than it seems, most of the time. If you can find another horse that WOULD BE EVEN MONEY, if the chalk scratched, then you have a likely candidate.



#2 Are cheap claiming races good races to try and cap or not?

I do about as well with cheap claimers as with any other value. In fact, I do better with cheap claimers than I do with stakes horses (except the graded events), most of the time. The secret is to find the standout horse in the race, and not get hung up on the relative value of the horses.




#3 Is betting on more than one winner in a race a good thing and if so under what circumstances? Or not?

Betting more than one horse to win, called dutching, can show a profit under certain circumstances, but overall, it's a likely loser. If I see a race where there are 2 or 3 horses that are very nice overlays, and the race has a very vulnerable favorite, I will occasionally bet them....if I can get 2/1 odds on them, together. This means that if I bet 2 horses ($4 total), the payoff on EACH OF THEM must be at least $12 ... which means BOTH have to be 5/1 or higher. If three horses, then the minimum odds on any of them must be at least 8/1, for a return of $18 ($6 bet).


#4 Is across the board a good way to go? under what conditions?

Your best bet is almost always the win bet, only. Most of the time, the place and show bets return a negative ROI, UNLESS you understand the place and show pools. If you do understand the other pools, then you can occasionally make a good bet in one of them. It's NOT likely that all three pools will be a good bet, unless the horse has a dramatic overlay in the win pool. Sometimes, then, a wps bet is very satisfactory.


#5 Are there just some tracks they can't be conquered? I've never cashed a ticket for Arlington.

If you select your races, any track can be readily beaten. If you play every race, at every track, you will be a net loser at every track. I do not think it is possible to play every race at every track for 30 days, and come out a winner, if you make $2 wps bets on all of them. If you occasionally bet larger amounts, and get lucky, then, yes, you may beat a track or two, but overall, you will be showing a negative ROI.

BE SELECTIVE. Master a particular type of race, or distance, or track, or something. KNOW MORE ABOUT your specialty than anyone else. You will become a winner, when you know more about it than others.


#6 Is playing a hunch/feeling a viable angle or just plain stupid?

Hunches will occasionally get you a $20 winner. Play 30 hunches, and you will be a net loser. This is GUARANTEED! :)


#7 Are Daily Doubles worth the risk?

Daily Doubles are an excellent way to start each day with a LOSS. It's hard enough to pick ONE winner, let alone two. And when you are able to pick two winners, most of the time, it's just not worth it. At Mountaineer last night, for example: Two standouts in the first two races. The DD paid $5.00 and the late double paid $6.60. Granted, these are unusually low, but low DD's happen a lot.

Most folks play doubles in combinations, such as 2 horses in the first race, and 2 in the second, or even more. When you do this, you just diminish your returns.

Just for fun, I checked my DD bets over the last 5 years ... I have made exactly THREE DD bets! :) I hit one of the three ...and have a negative ROI of about 50%!

Let me make this suggestion: Play 100 DD's on paper, without making any bets. See how you fare. If after making 100 on paper you find that you are ahead by 15 % or more, then you have found your calling, for sure.

These are good questions!

Good luck with it!

[rgmililani]

I'm a fan since "birth" so to speak. Just an advice, don't bet on every race or every track if you have the control...unlike me!

One good formula for placing a DD bet based on my experience is this - if the first race has an overwhelming favorite and a standout, I choose a good longshot on the second race. I hit a couple giving out good dividends.

For maiden races, avoid betting on the outstanding favorite especially for 2 yr olds.

On hunches, it works for me numerous times but most of these times, I don't listen or too late to change my bets...tough luck!

RGMILILANI

[gestalt]

Got some fundamental questions and I'm seeking some wisdom from the wise. #1 Is it a good ploy to try and look at ways to beat the chalk and only play races where the chances look good to do so?
#2 Are cheap claiming races good races to try and cap or not?
#3 Is betting on more than one winner in a race a good thing and if so under what circumstances? Or not?
#4 Is across the board a good way to go? under what conditions?
#5 Are there just some tracks they can't be conquered? I've never cashed a ticket for Arlington.
#6 Is playing a hunch/feeling a viable angle or just plain stupid?
#7 Are Daily Doubles worth the risk?

Now these are some basics I've pondered. I know or think there are really no hard fast rules to capping and I will not hold anyone responsible for their advice, but would appreciate any tid-bits any of you may have. Thanks to all.

RichieC.

Stupid IS AS Stupid Does. Your thread shows a substantial knowledge of the game, nice work, I engage the trainer angle as much as possible, he or she is the key, learn their habits and you become a winner, how much you win involves money management and a bank.

[ken]

1) yes;
2) yes;
3 + 4) each bet is an individual betting situation, so if I ever make more than 1 bet in a race it is an individual decision.
Personally I never bet across the board- but I may combine a win and P or S, but I never combine a place and show bet on the same horse. I never bet show if under 7 entrants and never place if 7 or more.
6) if your "hunch" is basically your betting style and handicapping without having to use a pen, go for it!

[Rudy]

Regarding chalk the typical race track has at best 25-30% winners...As an avid race goer I have noticed tracks where favorites win probably 20% or less..Hoosier Park seems to be one based on the past few races I've been watching .In the old days the DRF gave this information out and I am quite sure it is available and probably one of our brothers from TrackWinners can tell you...So chalk is always worth betting against in the long run..thereare situations where chalk must be used P3's 4's GIMMICK BETS
Regarding cheap races ...a gentleman I know strickly plays cheap claiming races with large fields tris and supers and does quite well
not playing all the races is also very important
Occasionally I will play more than one horse to win in a race I will play a logical favorite to break even if the horse I really like loses...
Don't play across the board unless the horse you like is long odds try to stick with win and place.if you have to bet...also check the pool wagering some tracks will show win place and show pools easier than others..if you like a 3/5 shot to win he may pay more for place than win and if its an entry of 1-1a and they finish 1-2 you would be amazed at the payoffs...
Try to find an angle at each track especially with the take out rate which can vary Laurel has I beleive a 12% pick 4 take out verses Calder which I beleive is 25% Monmouth also has a low p4 takeout..this money is a % the track takes out of the pool before it is distributed to the betting public and can vary greatly ..The DRF gives this at the beginning of each tracks program

Play hunches I see peolpe win with grandchildrens names birthdays and numbers but dont make a habit of it sometimes it can pull you out of a slump..perhaps a houes number or something..

Dailey doubles are great if you like a favorite and a long shot and can offer great value good luck hope this helped....