Identifying Change

[gestalt]

Racing is complex, more subtle than is casually represented. Fundamental handicapping approaches still must be employed for comparative analysis, but change is a signal to the modern, attentive player to stop in ones tracks for closer inspection. Learning to identify potentially positive changes-including the simple return to a previous winning formula-will boost your average payoff possibilities significantly. That is more than an exercise in how to play a few well-meant longshots. In this age of quasi-legal drug altered performances, year-round racing and multi-race and multi-bet exotics, it is a guiding pathway toward a winning horseplayer's edge. Do the players out there wish to reveal some of the changes they recognize as potentially positive handicapping tools?

[Steve]

Gestalt,

Great question that hopefully will flush out some stimulating thought provoking answers.

For my two cents I have to take the door opening and say that computer related horse issues are the biggest change in the last years.

I am very proud to post that I was the first Internet service provider in Tampa and in those years when I went to the track no one seemed to get what my profession was. Many would say that they had heard of the INTERNET, but not one had an email address. However, in a few years boy did that change.

No need to explain now how important the computer has become because primarily "Res ipsa loquitur" applies.

We have identified change so what is the best way to apply?

BECOMING A MEMBER OF TRACKWINNERS OF COURSE!

Think about it for a moment. We are all seeking answers to life's puzzles and in this case answers to items or change that can put us above the crowd. Through a forum of like interests via our own home wires we can instantaneously visit almost 5 thousand (3K members and 2K lurkers) at Trackwinners and increase our knowledge by asking these type of questions to persons around the world. Its beyond amazing to me and rewarding to those who pay attention and participate.

Of course I could ramble on about the INTERNET, handicapping via the computer, and Trackwinners but I need to step aside and let your post gather germane answers to a well thought out question.

Steve

[lvcookie]

Here is the change I have found in me since joining this site. I was a exotic player only, always looking for the big score. Now I play the contests and handicap different, now I look for the winner of the race and not exacta's and Tri's. I have found that I hit a lot of winners handicapping this way and it has carried over to the track. I still play exotics but I back my bets up with win tickets. Works for Me.

[genea]

i use the internet most of the time to learn more about handicapping,and listening toother handicappers..thanks a lot ,,genea

[ken]

If you are talking about changes which affect the indvidual horse's chances or ability to be competitive, then I will start my ball rolling with this post.
IMO, the racing industry does 3 main things to increase competitivenass and unpredictability in a race, and when a change in important enough or pronounced enough to significantly affect one of these it is a big red flag:
1) Condition Book- the only reason to have any kind of "race conditions" is to equalize the competition as much as possible, otherwise 2 yr old females would be running 1 1/2 miles vs older males who have won many in a row.
One of the major "equalizing" tools used is weight. For example, a horse that has won 2 recently gets a 3lb disavantage over a chronic loser. A maiden winner is thrown into a classy Alw or minor stakes.
Race placement is one of the best way s top trainer stays ahead of the competition, and changes in race placement away from the horse's regular runnings can be negative or very positive.
2) The track- whether by design or accidental it does not matter- the dimensions . composition, surface, upkeep, gete position, depth, weather, and speed of tracks can vary widely from track to track, and even on the same track from race to race. Having an idea how well your horse and the competition can handle the very diverse variations can make all the difference.
3) Morning Line/odds- Whether on purpose or not (and Northern Ca's M/l maker once admitted to me it was sometimes on purpose), the morning line and especially the tote odds can be very different than the actual odds or even than the actual "value" (the % chances a horse actually has to win, given as an odds fraction). IMHO even though the industry calims they do not care who wins, a heavy favoritie winning too many races will make for too predictable races and too many longer oddds horses winning will decrease the track income from breakage. So to racing interesting thr track would like a variety of unpredictability and payoff prices. All you need to do is look at the morning line at 9-14 Laurel and see a horse M/l at 1-1 and another in the same race at 3-2! Often the M/l favorite or another strong "contender" will be scratched for any number of reasons, throwing off the actual value of other horses in the race; and of course, rain will too!

[Mister Sanderson]

For me, winning at the track is all about my money management. Mentioned earlier was all the options we have now with the multi-race multi-card non-stop opportunities simucasting provides us. The key for me has been and will always be how I manage my bets.... because with all the options I know I'm gonna strike with winning tickets. The best thing I've found is to look for the simple play,(normally for me a pk3 or 4), find a key or two, and play around that. The simple tickets is where I rack up when I'm flowing. What I am working on getting away from is looking at a pk3 or 4 for a while, not really liking it, yet still contributing to the pools.

If I can just maintain the plays I feel strong about and get away from those TOO MUCH IMAGINATION plays, then I'm strong. Also, working on never increasing the Intensity of the bets. Gotta stick with what go you there. No reason to up the bet; MORE TRACKS MORE RACES MORE WAGERING OPTIONS -- STAY DISCIPLINED.. and K.I.S.S. thats what I've been working on... I still lose sometimes, but I leave with much less regrets knowing I played what I wanted and when I wanted, and didn't waste.

[trifecta mark]

positive change. What comes to mind first is a selection that may come from a learned/experienced set of recognitions skills. A particular entry coming into positive form though a pattern of recent races or work outs. Preferred distance, pace sceanario or surface for the horse in question. Cycle recognition. Subtle class nuances. Use of pace and/or speed figures that may bode well for today's race, Equipment changes such as blinkers, wraps or mud chalks {also including the addition of Lasix} Trainer angles or trainer intent. Use of key races. A positive change could come also from your wagering skills, exotic structure and bankroll management.