New to handicapping

[azbacks]

Hello to everyone.

I am recently retired, enjoy family, sports, internet and learning new things. Want to start going to TP when it opens in October and would like to augment my retirement a little or just have a great time, but want to have some knowledge on handicapping before I go.

I signed up this week and have been reading the different forums. Have taken the advise given to others and have been doing a lot of reading. Thanks for the great links on where to go.....;;' to start learning the basics.

I still have a few questions, so to become active for Steve's contests I will go to the General Racing and Handicapping sections to post again.

I usually don't post much on forums, but follow the different threads and updates fairly often.

I look forward to learning from all you.

azbacks (Sorry for the ramble on)

[Steve]

azbacks,

Welcome and thanks for becoming an active member. There are some sharp handicappers here and in time you won't even think about going to the track with out checking in here first.

Glad you found us,

Steve

[HANK3849]

Welcome azbacks. Steve is right. I have learned so mush on this site. There are some very sharp handicappers on this site so follow their advice. Good Luck

[lvcookie]

I believe since you are obviously from Arizona (azbacks) you met Turf Paradise "TuP".

If that is the case you should follow the rest of the Emerald meet, as I believe that Turf Paradise is the next stop in that circuit. A lot of the horses go there from Emerald. . Also some horses come from Los Alimitos. Turf Paradise surface is very fast.

Good Luck with your new endeavor. Lots of people to give you tips here.

[ken]

Good websites to look for statistics has been posted on here. I suggest you search this site for "Turfway"' and google "Turfway Park" and add specific words to zero in on what you want.
Equibase and Brisnet "handicapper's Edge" "At a Glance, Turfway" has some track by track stats worth looking at. "http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=20"
It is my belief that having a good idea of who wins and in what situations at what % or ROI is important.
You can check Equibase "leaders" by track for Ellis, Turfway, Keeneland, and Churchill Downs to get an idea which jockeys and trainers do well there.
I would advise you just to keep in mind that horses with better early speed are supposed to do better in shorter races on "faster" tracks. As the distance run lengthens and/or the track run on is slower for that race, more stamina is required.
And remember there are always exceptions to the "rules"!

[ken]

TURFWAY PARK AT A GLANCE )Last meet)

Avg. Winning Odds 5.44 - 1
Favorite Win% 48%, Favorite Itm%: 83%

EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta/Perfecta 66.98
Daily Double 49.00
Trifecta 333.84
Pick 3 450.08
Superfecta 2,785.77
Pick 6 894.10
Pick 4 5,174.98
__________
According to this, last meet, 1st with Polytrack, favorites did well, but the high Exotics to me indicates some longer odds horses may have had early speed but lost late.
Others can confirm this.

[azbacks]

Thank you for the welcome!!!

Ken - Thank you for the information. I have also taken the suggestions you have made to other newcomers and followed the links.

Thank you all.....


I should have spelled out Turf Paradise instead of using the wrong abbreviation........seemed logical :).

[Rudy]

Welcome azbacks,,this is a great site ....feel free to ask away...thats how we all learn

[Jerfi]

Hey, AZ ... you are joining a very nice 'club!' Welcome, and enjoy... and when you have insights, intuitions, and revelations ... post them, here!

[cersac]

Kind of a suggestion for both your Handicapping and your Track thread.

Sometimes major and medium size is not as important as using the tracks with the lowest takeout rates and sometimes that will vary with the individual type of bet you may make.
These are long term benefit ideas or for the bettor who invests heavily. Knowledge of other variables are presupposed such as trainer, jockey, biases, etc. Examples follow:

Win Place Show Pools


NYRA (Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga) tracks only hold back 14% whereas your Turf Paradise track holds back 20%. Thus a larger % of money bet is returned back to the bettor.

A chart from Handicappers Magazine follows with a summary of most tracksand types of wagers.

http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/cat/Track+Takeouts.html

Of course my hardest part is winning a bet to take advantage of this info.

[Jerfi]

Well, I'm sure the hard part of ANY info is knowing what to use, and when to use it.

Example: I see a horse that has a 1/1 ML ... and odds of 3/5 near post... and a quick scan of place and show pools indicate a $3.00 place and $2.80 show .... if I want to bet it... where do I bet?

In this scenario, I would take the show pool in a heartbeat.

Rationale: I will rarely bet a horse in any pool, if I'm not convinced that he will likely win. But, I do get surprised, a lot, as all of us do. And I'd much rather have a $2.80 show bet that is 98% certain, than a 3/5 horse that is 60% certain. I want to go where the money is.

Case in Point: 9/11 PHA 2 #8 This was a maiden race with one horse that seemed to be a standout - and one first timer that was bet as co-favorite. The #8 had already beaten the other primary contender twice... and, in my judgment, would likely do so, again. I prefer a horse with solid credentials against a first timer ... so I though #8 would win. He was 2/1 in the win pool ... as was the first timer .... So... I had a few choices ... bet both at 2/1 hoping one of them would win? $4 returns $6 .. a 50% ROI ... but ain't no way I'm dutching MAIDENS. So... I looked at the other pools... and walla ... #8 was set to pay $4 in the show pool, so I made my bet there.

After I made my bet, the computer money came in, and changed the odds a lot... but ... #8 did run third ... and did pay $3.00 .... so it was STILL a 50% ROI ... which makes me content.

As a footnote ... the horse that won was the other contender that had already been beaten twice by #8 ... and the place horse was another horse that had been beaten by #8 .....

The point of all of this is... go where the best return lies!

[horsesinger]

Is there any wisdom in consistently betting "across the board?" I know nothing and that seems a safer sort of bet for a beginner like me.:) When I'm playing, I can often pick a horse that finishes in the top 3, but I also often bet the jockey as much as any horse. I bought "Horseracing for Dummies", and "Beyer on Speed" and am studying them. I also have visited a few sites that deal with conduit mares, but don't really quite get that, yet.