Novice needs tips for clues to longshots

[Ken S]

I am a novice bettor and went out to Santa Anita Racetrack on 1/16/06. As usual, I pretty much bet what the so called "experts" were recommending with less than perfect results. However, in three of the five races I attended, longshots were in the mix. That day, over the three races, the winners went off at 13-1(race 4), 23-1(Race 5) and a second place finisher paid $26.00(race2). Now the 13-1 shot in race 4 did have three high Beyer figures in a row yet the horse remained a longshot. I am wondering if there is anything in the DRF that I could have looked at to take notice of these horses? Are workouts or Beyers the best clues? Anything else that could have been noticed or is this just the way of the world and longshots just win some days?

[Steve]

Hello Ken,

Great Question. Apparently , according to the prices, you were not the only one stumped.

I didn’t play SA that day, but I went and took a look. I don’t know what the experts were using to handicap the races so its hard to say what was overlooked-if anything explainable.

Early speed took all the sprints, and Back Class won the Turf. However, to recognize that while you are at the Track is another story.

I plan to write an entire overview concerning how to win at the Track, and what I do to stay positive in the money area. I think you will find it helpful concerning your question.

For now, the best answer I can give is to know the track you are wagering. Does it typically favor early speed or do the closers take the races. If its early speed then look at just that and forget the toteboard. Learn how to dutch your win bets for the top two early speed horses. In turf races always look for that back class (horses that have in the past competed at higher levels) and observe their works. Try to get a feel of how the trainer is preparing each horse for todays race. Sometimes you will get a feel for almost every horse in the race and what the trainers are hoping to accomplish. Many top trainers have a pattern that they stick to in prepping a horse.

You have to be an amateur detective yourself. Look back in the form and read it from bottom to top. See if you can detect any pattern a trainer uses to win for every entry.


Steve
TW

[mister zesterhouse]

I like the dutch wins on twin speeds. Personally, if I'm on track, I'll follow Jack Van Berg around. When he farts loudly before he places a bet, it usually wins. If he takes his **** out, it usually loses. I also believe the Pick 4 is:cool: the best way to go. Even if you're dead wrong you can sometimes get your money back (at least). Long-shot angles: Jon Court on a rider change (from Gryder or Desormeaux or Bailey or Day, etc.), Mullins dirt sprint to turf route, blinkers-off, yielding-turf affinity, Molly Pearson.

[ken]

As far as PP's, it is who Not to eliminate! Old similar wins, early speed, class drops, and finishing close at a price with a change of trainer, jockey, or workout pattern are all possible hints.
I like longshots in less predictable races that are either long, cheap, off tracks, no early speed, from a cheaper track, and/or sometimes when no low-odds horse is the big favorite.
I personally like to bet at least 4 longshots which are at least 1/2 the field in less predictable races. I decide about the odds cut-off depending on the odds at 5 minutes to post of all runners in the race.

[LongshotLarry]

KenS. picking a longshot is never easy and usually requires a lot of detective work-hidden class, biases, troubled trips, key races etc..Just using the PP's in the racing form, I would look at 2nd time starters in Maiden races-they usually improve dramatically in their 2nd starts, and I would look at any horse making a distance or surface change for the 1st time, especially with lower percentage jockeys and trainers-they usually are way underbet. Hope this helps a little..

LL

[trifecta mark]

You must get a feel for the game. Unfortunately it takes about a year of hard knocks for most beginners to fully comprehend all the nuances of handicapping horse races. It isn't just picking a winner. Not only do you need to witness the races and pay attention to the odds...you must also try to read books and watch tapes of experts that can speed your learning curve. Most races are won by the favorites {33%} but all favorites are certainly not equal. Horses above 10-1 rarely win but there are certain race qualifications and conditions where high priced horses come in more often {maidens, 2L, wet, baby turf, big fields, etc} You will learn this through experience. 1} You must always strive to improve your recognition skills. Certain angles such as early pace, distance, breeding, trainer intent, turf-to-dirt, peaking form etc. will help you decide that a certain entry which is being ignored has a better chance of winning than the odds dictate, or if a well bet favorite is vulnerable. But here is the essence of the para mutual game.....there is a takeout of the pools of about 20% and you are just playing against the opinions of the other players. 2} Therefore you must also strive to structure your wagers to get "value" out of your selections. Have tickets that few of the others have. Use the pools that make the most sense to assist you to {bet small and win big...} 3] use money management. Size your bankroll and bet accordingly Say 3% to 6% of the total depending on your confidence and conviction.

[pepi]

I am a novice bettor and went out to Santa Anita Racetrack on 1/16/06. As usual, I pretty much bet what the so called "experts" were recommending with less than perfect results. However, in three of the five races I attended, longshots were in the mix. That day, over the three races, the winners went off at 13-1(race 4), 23-1(Race 5) and a second place finisher paid $26.00(race2). Now the 13-1 shot in race 4 did have three high Beyer figures in a row yet the horse remained a longshot. I am wondering if there is anything in the DRF that I could have looked at to take notice of these horses? Are workouts or Beyers the best clues? Anything else that could have been noticed or is this just the way of the world and longshots just win some days?


Take a look @ Pep's Pix.