A Fear Of Winning

[Mister Sanderson]

I was watching Pick 6 central on TVG about a month ago and they had a resident California handicapper on the show as guest handicapper; I forget his name. He was putting out his pick 6 ticket to the public and explaining his plays. And he said something that hit me in the gut about handicapping the horses.
He said something to the point of you only have so much ds: to use in making a wager (MEANING ONE HAS TO TAKE STANDS INSTEAD OF HITTING ALL IN EVERY RACE). He continued, "you can't be afraid to win."
I knew exactly what he mean't by that. I think I qualify under the "afraid" category most of the time. Somehow, I always seem to let my fear stop me from keying what my gut and intuition tells me is the right key horse in crucial situations. I, like most of you, have a limited budget at the track, and I usually only get a few real shots and I have to make them count.

I'll give you an example. In the late pick 4 at Hol I had $60 to put into it. The last race I had 5 horses I was strong on. Couldn't key them, didn't feel comfortable tossing any of them. The first leg I was solid on 4 horses. The 2nd and 3rd legs is where my internal debate began. I liked 3 horses in each race. In each race I also had a potential key. The 3rd leg key was the horse I liked more than the second leg. The third leg key was 8/1 morning line, and the 2nd leg 2/1. I thought the 8/1 in the 3rd leg had great angles, and I saw his last race and he ran dead into the rear of a horse and slammed on the breaks as he began his run, and still finished well. The 2nd leg key was the safer play. He basically ran his race every time and he could give me assurance he would be right there when it counted. So before I got up I decided to key the 2nd leg 2/1 and use 3 horses in the 3rd leg including the 8/1 ML horse I liked so much. So it was a 4 x key x 3 x 5 play for $60.

Results were the 2/1 ML key I used ran a good race and fininshed 2nd, 2 lengths behind to a 6/1 that I was going to use in my 3 horse play. The next race my 8/1 ML key horse was let off at 10/1 and he won by 8 lenths or so. The races around those two my 4 x 5 covered to winners', The pk4 paid around $3700 for a dollar. Sometimes the safe play works, but I didn't sleep too well that night bc I abandoned my gut feeling.

This is one of the many examples of having I think a "fear to win." I allowed what the public thought or the so-called "safe play" to overwhelm my wagering format. And this is why I would put my handicapping up against anyone, but my style of betting against no-one.

Has anyone else been this way, or have you guys addressed the fear of winning? Anyway, I agree the "fear of winning" is real.bh)

[Mister Stigg]

I went to an off-track place on Sunday planning to bet It's No Joke, Bright One, and Blue Grass Cat, all to win. Since I figured I would get the most price on It's No Joke, I bet most of my money I came with on him to win(he ran 3rd). Then I didn't bet Bright One or Bluegrass Cat to win(I told my dad to bet Bluegrass Cat, he did!). I know they were chalk, but they won, and could have gotten some or all of my money back. Does that count as 'fear of winning," or is that just called being chicken-s***?

[Jerfi]

One of the age old maxims in any kind of gambling is that most folks are willing to lose more than they are willing to win.

How many times, for example, have you had a horse that you thought was a lock ... see him at 7/5 and put $20 on him. But, have another horse that you feel just as strongly about ... at 15/1 ... and put $2 on him? Why not reverse it?

One EASY way to do this is to bet the odds as $$. For example, on your best pick at 15/1, put $15 on him. If your best pick is $10, put $10 on him (or multiples of whatever your bet unit is). When he does win, the payouts can be quite nice.

I know one of the most satisfying wagers I ever made was a SHOW bet at Pimlico many years ago. I was just getting started in the fun of racing, and when I saw the odds on my horse (5/1), I hit him with $20 to show... not because of the win odds, but because of the SHOW odds.

Yes, he won ... paying $12.00, $9.60, and $10.00. When I took my ticket to the window for cashing, the clerk exclaimed, "NICE!!!!!" before even putting it thru the machine.

I do not always practice this, but I sure do raise my bets as the odds go UP.

And, yes, it took many years to force myself to do it, because of fear factors.

Which is worse? Betting $20 on a 6/5 horse that loses, or $20 on a 15/1 horse that loses?

You still lose. But ... look at the gains! :) A 6/5 horse will return you $42 or there about for your $20 .... but a 15/1 horse gives you back about $320!

If you are reasonably diligent, and if you can pick winners, a surprising number of the higher odds horses will win ... just as you thought they would.

Go for the gold, when the opportunity is there!

[trifecta mark]

I am not an expert on pick fours and the like ....but i understand from my readings that many good handicappers would benefit from multiple tickets in these wagers rather than one ticket. I think it is Crist who calls one ticket players with two or three entres covered in each leg "lazy" Perhaps solo keying fringe higher odd horses with more logical fav in the other legs is the way to go. I only play a pick three or pick four when I detest the favorite in the first leg or when a horse off my watch list comes up and I want to cover him in multiple pools. As my log on name suggests....I prefer the exotics in one race only where I can see the odds/proposition in front of me. I dilligently structure the tickets for overlays based on my handicapping opinions. .....particularly when I can take a stand against a vulnerable favorite {1st or 2nd choice}. I also split favorites occasionally with double digit overlays or key these overlooked priced longshots third and fourth where the come in most often.

[Mister Sanderson]

I had the Pick 6 going into the last at Sar with 3 horses. They were paying 22g's, 35g's, and 63g's. The Mott horse threw Jara pre-race and was scratched. So I got the fav twice, which I didn't want. Anyway, the best I could muster was 2nd. Didn't use the Clemente horse. 6 of 6 paid $31g's and I got a measly $277 three times for 5.
However, I did play a wise ticket for a small amount and I played who I liked. I overcame the fear (of winning), for now, and keyed the Dutrow claimer in the Weigilia race. He romped.

Here's to me for trying to win!bf.

[Mister Stigg]

Trifecta Mark, I agree with your strategy, especially taking a stand against vulnerable overlays, but help me understand something. What does it mean to split favorites?

[trifecta mark]

In my opinion....with exotics bets in certain races your handicapping may reveal two horses among the contenders that the public likes and you do too. In fact it may happen more than you wish ...since the general public is actually fairly good at identifying standouts. They may have one at 5/2 or lower and the other at 5/2 as well. I will NOT EVER put those horses in both the one hole AND the two hole on my exotic tickets. {one exeption: I am "keying" a real long shot double-digit entry third and fourth in the tri and super} In the paramutual game ...way too many people box their choices. Not enough understand that you must have tickets at the window that "few" people have. Having two "odds on" choices both one and two on the tickets means an underlay payout in most all cases. The takeout must be respected at the race track. It is the silent enemy. If I reluctantly must have those two low odds horses on my tickets {I strive to eliminate one on solid handicapping grounds}...they need to be 1st and 3rd .....or 1st and 4th on my exotic gimmick bets. Hence the term "splitting favorites. If I can't make a judgement to do this...I pass the race. No one should have exactas that pay 14 dollars or trifectas that pay under 50 dollars. You are not getting paid enough for the true risk you are taking. Of course there will times when "chaulk" comes marching in. You have to derive some satisfaction for not having a ticket that "won't pay anything" One caveat: Keep in mind that favorites do come in. That is a fact of life and sometimes playing the non vulnerable favorite in a pick 3,... pick 4 ...or on top alone in a tri or super is warranted. Just don't put the 2nd or 3rd chaulk horse underneath in the second spot on that ticket too. That is a recipe for long term losing. If you can't derive some value....move on. There is always another race coming in the simulcast era.

[Mister Stigg]

Trifecta Mark, I understand now what splitting favorites means, and what you just wrote makes alot of sense. Thanks.

[Jerfi]

Well... it's very true that the exotics offer a LOT of opportunities.. both opportunities to pass a race .. or to bet it.

Example: Last week, I had what I considered to be a stone cold lock on the winner... he was my 'best pick of the day.' I do hit about 72% of those. But, he was 1/9 on the board.. back to 1/5, back to 1/9. I would not bet him under those conditions.

But... there was another outstanding horse in the race .... but not, in my opinion, as good as my primary pick. Hence, TWO FAVORITES ....

I looked at the exacta probable payoff, expecting $3.60 or some such ...which, also, I would refuse to bet. But, for whatever reason, this second place horse was at $6 in the exacta .... which, to me, amounted to a 2/1 bet on my primary pick ... // or ... a place bet on the second favorite. The place pay on the second favorite was going to be only $2.60 or so.

Result? I did bet the exacta ... and not with a $2 bet! :) It paid $6.20 ...
So... all of this is to say, as Trifect Mark pointed out, very nicely ...

The RETURN is the key. Overlays can be found all around ....

Now, I know a $6.20 exacta isn't barn burning.... but.. when it's actually a 2/1 bet on an obvious 1/5 horse... it's worth something ... at least, to me!

[vintonotb]

Yes I understand this ..........Because alot of time will put bigger money on shorter prices and just 2 or 3 on longshots ............. sometimes I do not have much to play cost me a excata at arlington both horses have most turf money but I had to hold off for the 6th at Demar which won thank-fully ............ to make a good start to a good day ............ Looking at 2 trainer s to day cole normaqn and bret calhoun at Lousiani downs

[Jerfi]

I wish you well in your picks and bets ...

I know what it's like to 'have the horse,' but not the bet!