Length of a horse (feet in a tic)

[gestalt]

Give me a horse that will come home in a 12 second furlong, I will have a champion (perfect horse). Consider after the first turn, horse is running in anaerobic state, a 12 sec. furlong is 60 tics, 660 ft., or 11 ft/tic or 55 feet per second, we deduct the turn (a proposed value of 3 feet), we get 52 feet per sec., or a value of 10.40 ft., the length of a horse for statistical purposes while running in anaerobic state. Should turn have a larger value, then length will shorten a little. Now Ken, with this piece of data, and relating all the parameters in terms of 10.40 ft./tic, a math formula for a horse running in anaerobic state is possible. Be restrictive and consider a three furlong run after the first turn. Any horse not running to the "Perfect Horse" standard will reveal his energy depletion. A template can be made to gauge performance. Once the format is understood, vast amounts of reasoning surfaces. A Beyer is worth 2.5 times a normal point, note that 10.40 is close to 2.5 times the length of a horse stride in full run. Anyone that knows how to put this math together will have a successful formula in predicitng the outcome of races at various distances. Turf and two year olds are not comingled. If chaos could be fitted, we are on to something. The math is there, tough for the casual player but easy for an analyst. I am willing to take input on this subject matter, addressing all issues positive and negative in nature.

[Jerfi]

One of the things we cannot do, fortunately, is reduce horse racing to cold stats. If we were able to predict, with even 75% accuracy, the winners of the races, racing would cease to exist, because all payoffs would be $2.01.

To me, deciding on a 'length' is basically an exercise in futility. How would it affect the outcome of a race, if a length is 10 feet, 11 feet, 9 feet? If a horse wins by 5 ... does it matter if that is 45 to 55 feet? Will that predetermine his performance, next time out? Nope, no way. Because, next time out, he would not be facing the same rivals. He would not have expended his energy during the day the same way. He would not necessarily be carrying the same weight, or ridden by the same rider, or breaking from the same gate.

The math, when figured by the horse, is much more simple. How many times have we all seen a real scrapper being passed, and he looks his competitor in the eye and says to him, "Not this time, Charley!" and comes back to win convincingly.

I would much rather be able to compute the size of his heart and the extent of his competitive desire!

[ken]

Good that you said "standard" as you are setting a standard, regardless of variable in reality. coming home the last furlong in 12 seconds is admirsble regardless of the race.
You know of course, that outside your standard model, 6 f at 12 seconds per is 72 or 1:12 seconds.
You know of course that Beyer allows 1/5 second per ("standard" 8') length for all NON-WINNERS, which is 40' per second, or 16 1/2 seconds per furlong, slower than any horse breed or mules run?
My figuring is that with any speed figure that uses 1/5 second per length is off for non-winners by about 20-25% too slow. Matters only if speed figures are within say 3 points. Not enough to quibble about for practical matters.
If you use 2nd call to make your own figures, time, or pace, allow for 20-25% credit for non-winners and then trip handicap the from 2nd call to finish you may be better off if you depend on figures more that Beyer says to!
Just talking about 6f finish times, I see a range of up to 4 seconds at each track depending; and if you consider finishers to 4th place as trying, you may see real and adjusted times of 1:08 to 1:14 depending on track conditions, and for routes maybe 8 seconds difference.
8' length- if 8' is a problem, verify by glossaries at major racing websites.
8' times 6 1/2 lengths per second is 52' per second. That is what I use.
And of course, the difference between 6 1/2 lengths per second and 5 is whatefver % 1 1/2 is of 6 1/2= about 23% (20-25%).
For the record, historically 8' was 1st used as the length of the box a cord of wood was stored in, 8' from post to post, so it was used for fence then track rail and now for Fontana Safety Rail lengths. Since chart callers at the finish count rail posts, they estimate rail posts (about the same length as a "horse length", from chest to rump) for length at calls also.
1/5 seconds- this is my best guess why 1/5 was standard time- clocks and watches then stopwatches had 12 numbers and 4 marks (5 "tics" as you state in the title!) between to represent minutes of the hour and seconds of the minute; stopwatch makers just kept the same familiar look but each number was 1 second, so each tick was 1/5 second.
Now of course, stopwatches are hundredths or thousandths, and can time up to at least 5 different horses. But thoroughbred races and fair pig races are the only animal races in the USA that are timed that still use only the winner's time even when the timers break down and they hand-time the races with those same stopwatches!(the All-Alaskan Pig Races guy emailed me and told me he was going to buy equiptment to tiea all runners, even though that is considered "sports entertainment"!)
My understanding is even from race to race all other equine are timed individually because their racing associations require it for published speed ratings and/or trial heats.
So we TBred handicappers still get to use 16th century distance and 18th century timing to figure out "speed" when "speed" means several different things. And if your horse wins they still rip you off for up to 9 cents breakage because it is too hard for racing to figure out odd cents on their computers?
What is that that Mullins said about bettors that got everybody mad? Bettors are idiots?
All I can say to that is- some trainers are still trying to figure out how to run their horses with 148 lbs for a higher claiming price and how to run their horse with 109 lbs instead of 111lbs! LOL!!