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View Full Version : the pitfall of exotic "underlays" bet small to win big


trifecta mark
06-02-2006, 11:16 AM
With the takeout ''juice" of 17-26% from the exacta, trifectas and supers....it is pretty important for a player to avoid underlays if he is going to play the races over time. In those exotic pools it is not as easy to identify underpaying tickets for the real risk you undertake. Either you must structure the ticket for the "upside" or I think you have to pass the race entirely. It requires some patience because this philosophy can sometimes lead to some losing streaks when the chaulk comes marching home as the public expects. The beauty is when you do win....you get paid enough to cover the losers plus some. Generally I only play "odds on" favorites in the two hole in exactas. {never on top} If I percieve an "odds on" chaulk who I really think can't lose.....then I play them on top in a tri....but I ALWAYS avoid putting the second and third choice in the two hole. Very little is written in the texts about exotic strategies and how to structure the tickets in the gimmicks. I don't box{I key} and I rarely use the "all" button. I think money management within a certain bankroll is very important for a handicappers enjoyment. Whatever you bring to the races....I suggest a 3-6% limit on any one race in the simulcast era. {example: $1,000 bankroll on any particular day means wagers limited from $30 -$60 in any pool. There is nothing better than upsetting a public choice because you believ he is vulnerable. Perhaps the upcoming pace, class, surface, distance or layoff pattern doesn't suit the chaulk today. Be a healthy skeptic. Give the benefit of the doubt to others from 3-1 to 8-1 who may surprise today. Structure the tickets to play the upside. Any thoughts?

Jerseyjoe
06-02-2006, 06:37 PM
I think you're right on the mark, Mark.
In my case I never play a favorite. If I think the favorite can't be beat I simply pass the race. The only exception is if I feel another long priced horse can't be beat for second. Has to be 12-1 or better. then I'll play an exacta or triple.
As for how much to wager I think your figures are perfect and that's just about how I play.