Superfecta Pool Size

[Chuck]

This post is likely to draw a little fire. I am interested in hearing all opinions, especially Steve's as I think he might have experienced the fallout from what I am writing about in this post. I have been carefully watching the Superfecta payoffs at Tampa and week by week it is becoming a less and less efficient bet. The average Super pool is less than a third of the triple pool and many times only a quarter of the exacta pool. It continues to be a "fun" bet for gamblers playing numerous dollar tickets, all over their preferred combinations. But for any of you investing even as small a wager as $100 total dollars into a pool, your overall net returns OVER TIME would be much higher focusing on triples or even exactas. The small pool size is the main factor contributing to what I am sure some of you have noticed as smaller than expected returns. Even "HUGE" super payoffs are a bit dramatic and misleading. Take the final race on Saturday. A $48,000 Super Payoff. Eeggads, what a score. The problem is the pool was only $33,000 so there was only a single one dollar ticket sold in the whole pool. Most likely the ages of someones 4 kids, etc. Mathematically, adding the fourth runner to the ticket simply isn't worth the extra invested funds. It's either a fun bet for punters, a sucker bet for mid-range players or an avoidance bet for serious players. The exception to this would be when you absolutely can single a minimum of one horse in one position on the ticket. Or analyzing the payoffs a 5-1 horse or better in the top two positions. Then if you need to mine an additional pool for extra income in the race....it's sensible but still what are you going to add to your bankroll out of a pool with maybe 20k live money and the rest of the track punting into it? Superfecta or Stupidfecta?

[Steve]

Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
3 Missstormyatlantic Bush W V 118 24.20 11.00 5.20

1 Morning Beauty Camejo O 118 26.20 7.80

10 Boston Belga Houghton T D 118 2.60
Times in 5ths: :22 :451 :58 1:114
Times in 100ths: :22.04 :45.22 :58.03 1:11.91

Claimed: Boston Belga by Scherer Merrill R. (Scherer MerrillR.), Mezmer Eyes by Artz Deborrah J. (Emond Norma), Dot the Page by Velazquez Alfredo (Anita Racing Stable ),
Also ran: Twisted Cord, Mezmer Eyes, Quick Fuse, Winged Philly, Dot the Page, See the Parade and Ginas Girl
Winning Trainer: McCarthy Brenda D - Owner: Keating Thomas A.
$2 Exacta (3-1) Paid $308.00
$2 Trifecta (3-1-10) Paid $1,076.80
$2 Superfecta (3-1-10-6) Paid $4,674.40


Chuck you are so right! I am certainly reevaluating the play after this payoff. I admit that I hadn’t been watching the pools and as you know I was disappointed with this ticket. The six horse completed the Superfecta and went off at 17-1 odds. As waited for the payoff prices I thought that I may take the whole pool, which I guessed may have been 30K or above. Got a wake up call instead. While I did make money on the play in retrospect the risk was not prudent.

Thanks for pointing the weak pools out. I am down for multiple Tri’s in the future.

Steve
TW

[LongshotLarry]

This post is likely to draw a little fire. I am interested in hearing all opinions, especially Steve's as I think he might have experienced the fallout from what I am writing about in this post. I have been carefully watching the Superfecta payoffs at Tampa and week by week it is becoming a less and less efficient bet. The average Super pool is less than a third of the triple pool and many times only a quarter of the exacta pool. It continues to be a "fun" bet for gamblers playing numerous dollar tickets, all over their preferred combinations. But for any of you investing even as small a wager as $100 total dollars into a pool, your overall net returns OVER TIME would be much higher focusing on triples or even exactas. The small pool size is the main factor contributing to what I am sure some of you have noticed as smaller than expected returns. Even "HUGE" super payoffs are a bit dramatic and misleading. Take the final race on Saturday. A $48,000 Super Payoff. Eeggads, what a score. The problem is the pool was only $33,000 so there was only a single one dollar ticket sold in the whole pool. Most likely the ages of someones 4 kids, etc. Mathematically, adding the fourth runner to the ticket simply isn't worth the extra invested funds. It's either a fun bet for punters, a sucker bet for mid-range players or an avoidance bet for serious players. The exception to this would be when you absolutely can single a minimum of one horse in one position on the ticket. Or analyzing the payoffs a 5-1 horse or better in the top two positions. Then if you need to mine an additional pool for extra income in the race....it's sensible but still what are you going to add to your bankroll out of a pool with maybe 20k live money and the rest of the track punting into it? Superfecta or Stupidfecta?
I whole heartedly agree with your comments regarding superfecta payoffs at TBD. The super pools never get a lot of play, and I usually ignore playing them. I may play the Super if I have a lower priced horse that I think will win, I will key him only on top, keying another horse underneath in all 3 positions, using 4 other horses with him, this way I am not putting a lot of money into the race, so my return will be good if I hit, and my losses small if I miss. The Pick 4 and Pick 3 pools at TBD are also small, and thus, the heavy hitters are ignoring them also!! But I still like the Pick 4, we have hit several of them, while betting in the 48 to 144 dollar range, often aided by the use of a 'bullett'. Yes, Chuck and Steve, I have to agree that the Stupidfecta is not a good play at TBD. The exacta pools are huge-- the heavy hitters should go after this pool, plus you know what the approximate payoff will be!!

LL

[LongshotLarry]

Steve, I like your Super play of keying one horse in all 4 positions with 5 other horses for a total of $240! I think this is a great play at the larger tracks or those tracks that have huge super pools. Remember the FairGrounds last year? I know you do..

LL

[sace5326]

im new to the site,and have been reading some on the superfectas,longshotlarry was saying about keying a horse in each pos.i like doing that but i do that in pick 3's.ill key 1 horse in the first race ,then the second and then the third.if i use 3 horse in each race it comes out to 27 combos same as picking 3 horses in each race on 1 ticket.
but with the 3 separate tickets its possible to cash in on all three tickets.
i found this technique to be useful.
if im not doing this correctly let me know.
thanks


sace5326 az of u rtip

[Steve]

sace5326,

Yes, you are doing it correctly to maximize your money. I wrote an overview of just that in the "Genereal Racing Forum" titled --Pic 3 methodology--Reference. A seach in the forum will locate the article.


Steve
TW