trifecta mark
04-26-2006, 11:37 AM
For years I have been hearing that in order to consistantly win ...you must focus in on one or two tracks at most. I am not sure I agree. I am not suggesting that someone superficially scan the form with 2 minutes to post in an attempt to comprehensively figure out an upcoming race....but using several tracks allows you to eliminate many races entirely. The beauty of simulcasts is that you still get enough action over the entire afternoon to enjoy. Say you believe {like i do} that certain races are generally too unpredictible for various reasons{ low level claimers below 15 k, muddy surfaces, State restricted maiden claimers, restricted 2L races, etc} or not bettable {small fields}...why not just turn the page knowing a more attractive feature may be coming along somewhere else? The night before I attend my simulcast venue...I scan three, four or even five different cards around the country seeking races that fit my criteria. {Maiden Specials, claiming above 40 K, allowance dirt and turf, and Stakes} Among those with 8 or more entries....I determine which to handicap. I write NO across the page of any race I am not interested in based on my criteria. I then mark my form, make notes, circle my contenders and have an idea of my own odds and probabilities on the races that fit. On game day....I focus on the odds provided on these races only. Making decisions seeking overlays...I structure my tickets in a bet small...win big exotic philosophy. I watch for any bias of course but i believe that good handicappers that play exactas, tris and supers many times lose because they are not an expert on ticket structure. Putting the tickets together separating or eliminating favorites or avoiding underlays is the only way to beat the 20% juice in this game. Haven't met a sucessful grind it out place and show better in years. I don't think they exist. I think simulcasting is the best thing that has ever happened to the sport. Follow one track if you wish....but only about three or four races a day should be actually played. And only when you find an overlay play!