Mister Sanderson
04-08-2006, 09:53 PM
Hey, I know I'm gonna take some flack for this from some of the bandwagoners, but I want to make a case against Brother Derek winning the Derby. I think, after today, there is no doubt he will be an Overwhelming favorite. Possibly lower than 2/1 or 9/5. His wins have all been fast, easy, and better with distance.
Personally, I really like him, b/c he is by Benchmark (one of my favorite studs) and good to see Hendricks get a nice one after his setback. BELIEVE THIS: NBC AND ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL GLUE TO THE HENDRICKS STORY AND MAKE THIS HORSE THE FOR SURE HYPE HORSE AND SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE. .............but I wanna point just a couple of things that may be working against him:
1. THE DERBY WILL PROBABLY BE LOADED WITH SPEED. KEYED ENTRY, SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, LIKE NOW, FIRST SAMURAI, SHARP HUMOR, BARBARO. you can add SINISTER MINISTER to this mix as well I believe 22, 45 and change!!
Brother Derek has had perfect races to showcase his speed while he was comfortable. The race he beat Stevie Wonderboy was a 4 horse field where he was the controlling pace. The prep to the SA Derby he beat an overhyped Frankel Maria's Mon just out of MSW company and was again able to get comfy. Same with today; caught a bunch of closers and strung them out to win impressively. ALL IM SAYING is WHAT HAPPENS WHEN HE HAS TO RUN FOR AROUND 7 FURLONGS HARD IN THE RACE RATHER THAN THE 3 OR 4 HE HAS BEEN RUNNING NOW? WILL HE BE THE SAME HORSE? even if he rates, its in his nature to be up close, and he could get sizzled.
2. THE DERBY IS IN KY.
Brother Derek has won all of his races in California. Even the most staunch supporter of Derek would have to agree that the Cali tracks favor speed more than any. And he is speed. Churchill is more unbiased and there is a long stretch. Some horses are clearly better out west and others are better in the East. EXAMPLE: SIGHTSEEK, SAINT LIAM
read the article in DRF about what Baffert said about Bob and John and the wider Aqu track...
3. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED STORIES THAT WILL COME OUT ON HENDRICKS..PUBLIC SENIMENTALITY = PUBLIC BETS ON HIM.
4. IT'S THE DERBY FOR CHRIST'S SAKE!! CHALKS NEVER WIN!! (Sorry Smarty!@#$%^&*!!!!, my bad)do;
I think these are enough to leave doubt in betting Brother Derek at 7/5, 8/5...etc in the Derby.
ANYBODY GOT ANY OTHER ANGLES FOR OR AGAINST?? THANKS
Personally, I really like him, b/c he is by Benchmark (one of my favorite studs) and good to see Hendricks get a nice one after his setback. BELIEVE THIS: NBC AND ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL GLUE TO THE HENDRICKS STORY AND MAKE THIS HORSE THE FOR SURE HYPE HORSE AND SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE. .............but I wanna point just a couple of things that may be working against him:
1. THE DERBY WILL PROBABLY BE LOADED WITH SPEED. KEYED ENTRY, SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, LIKE NOW, FIRST SAMURAI, SHARP HUMOR, BARBARO. you can add SINISTER MINISTER to this mix as well I believe 22, 45 and change!!
Brother Derek has had perfect races to showcase his speed while he was comfortable. The race he beat Stevie Wonderboy was a 4 horse field where he was the controlling pace. The prep to the SA Derby he beat an overhyped Frankel Maria's Mon just out of MSW company and was again able to get comfy. Same with today; caught a bunch of closers and strung them out to win impressively. ALL IM SAYING is WHAT HAPPENS WHEN HE HAS TO RUN FOR AROUND 7 FURLONGS HARD IN THE RACE RATHER THAN THE 3 OR 4 HE HAS BEEN RUNNING NOW? WILL HE BE THE SAME HORSE? even if he rates, its in his nature to be up close, and he could get sizzled.
2. THE DERBY IS IN KY.
Brother Derek has won all of his races in California. Even the most staunch supporter of Derek would have to agree that the Cali tracks favor speed more than any. And he is speed. Churchill is more unbiased and there is a long stretch. Some horses are clearly better out west and others are better in the East. EXAMPLE: SIGHTSEEK, SAINT LIAM
read the article in DRF about what Baffert said about Bob and John and the wider Aqu track...
3. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED STORIES THAT WILL COME OUT ON HENDRICKS..PUBLIC SENIMENTALITY = PUBLIC BETS ON HIM.
4. IT'S THE DERBY FOR CHRIST'S SAKE!! CHALKS NEVER WIN!! (Sorry Smarty!@#$%^&*!!!!, my bad)do;
I think these are enough to leave doubt in betting Brother Derek at 7/5, 8/5...etc in the Derby.
ANYBODY GOT ANY OTHER ANGLES FOR OR AGAINST?? THANKS