Steve
01-27-2006, 08:08 AM
In the end our forum voted that weight doen't matter. Thought you may enjoy the following:
The following is an excerpt from Joe Takach "Sucker Bets".
I’m sure you’ve heard the absolutely absurd horseracing axiom that “weight brings them all together”!
No it doesn’t!
It never has and it never will!
Long ago this antiquated backside theory made it to the front apron to you and I as handicappers. We were informed that the less weight a horse has to carry, the better he would run and the greater the likelihood of a win or a closer finish.
Nothing could be further from the truth!
Whenever a trainer enters a horse under the top claiming price, he’s not really trying to get weight off the horse’s back, he’s trying to get rid of the horse via the claim box. Or, he positively knows that nobody will claim the horse whether entered for 32K, 30K or 28K because the horse is only worth 16K, so why not let the horse run with less weight.
Consider the following.
Most thoroughbreds weigh from 1,000 pounds to 1,200 pounds.
To keep the numbers as elementary as possible, we’ll assume that they all weigh 1,000 pounds.
Here’s what the math shows when a horse gets 2 pounds off and runs for 30K instead of the top claiming tag of 32K.
Two pounds is one five hundredth of the horse’s total bodyweight or .002%
Put another way, the horse doesn’t even notice the 2 pound difference.
And to give you even more perspective, suppose every human being weighed 200 pounds and were all going to run a mile, but wanted to get the same weight advantage that a horse receives by lowering their “claiming tag”.
Doing a little math we see that .002% of 200 pounds comes to four tenths of 1 pound or 6.4 ounces.
Are we to believe that 6.4 ounces on a human’s body would be the difference between winning or losing that mile race, or would it make more sense to believe that winning or losing that mile race came about thru conditioning or lack of same assuming that all the entrants were approximately equal in ability.
Again, a horse doesn’t feel that 2 pounds any more than you or I would feel 6 extra ounces.
And yet, how many times have you overheard other handicappers saying that this or that horse is dropping 4 pounds or is picking up 2 pounds as if this were a determining factor in the outcome of the upcoming race.
I can hear a “dagger thrower” out there saying, “I’ve seen horses entered under the top claiming tag win races and more than once”.
So what---so have I!
But when they win, 99% of the time the lower tagged runner wins thru default due to the negative racing luck of others.
Knowledgeable trainers never give anything away-----------never! If a horse is entered under the top claiming tag, there’s a reason and it has nothing to do with 2 or 4 pounds.
I immediately throw him out no matter how good he looks on “paper” or in the paddock.
If his trainer doesn’t think enough of him to enter him at the top of the claiming tag, why should I be a “sucker” and bet him?
The following is an excerpt from Joe Takach "Sucker Bets".
I’m sure you’ve heard the absolutely absurd horseracing axiom that “weight brings them all together”!
No it doesn’t!
It never has and it never will!
Long ago this antiquated backside theory made it to the front apron to you and I as handicappers. We were informed that the less weight a horse has to carry, the better he would run and the greater the likelihood of a win or a closer finish.
Nothing could be further from the truth!
Whenever a trainer enters a horse under the top claiming price, he’s not really trying to get weight off the horse’s back, he’s trying to get rid of the horse via the claim box. Or, he positively knows that nobody will claim the horse whether entered for 32K, 30K or 28K because the horse is only worth 16K, so why not let the horse run with less weight.
Consider the following.
Most thoroughbreds weigh from 1,000 pounds to 1,200 pounds.
To keep the numbers as elementary as possible, we’ll assume that they all weigh 1,000 pounds.
Here’s what the math shows when a horse gets 2 pounds off and runs for 30K instead of the top claiming tag of 32K.
Two pounds is one five hundredth of the horse’s total bodyweight or .002%
Put another way, the horse doesn’t even notice the 2 pound difference.
And to give you even more perspective, suppose every human being weighed 200 pounds and were all going to run a mile, but wanted to get the same weight advantage that a horse receives by lowering their “claiming tag”.
Doing a little math we see that .002% of 200 pounds comes to four tenths of 1 pound or 6.4 ounces.
Are we to believe that 6.4 ounces on a human’s body would be the difference between winning or losing that mile race, or would it make more sense to believe that winning or losing that mile race came about thru conditioning or lack of same assuming that all the entrants were approximately equal in ability.
Again, a horse doesn’t feel that 2 pounds any more than you or I would feel 6 extra ounces.
And yet, how many times have you overheard other handicappers saying that this or that horse is dropping 4 pounds or is picking up 2 pounds as if this were a determining factor in the outcome of the upcoming race.
I can hear a “dagger thrower” out there saying, “I’ve seen horses entered under the top claiming tag win races and more than once”.
So what---so have I!
But when they win, 99% of the time the lower tagged runner wins thru default due to the negative racing luck of others.
Knowledgeable trainers never give anything away-----------never! If a horse is entered under the top claiming tag, there’s a reason and it has nothing to do with 2 or 4 pounds.
I immediately throw him out no matter how good he looks on “paper” or in the paddock.
If his trainer doesn’t think enough of him to enter him at the top of the claiming tag, why should I be a “sucker” and bet him?