Klein Speed Points

[Steve]

My most recent book is Steve Kleins "The Power Of Early Speed". I have not had much time to read, but so far it appears to be an informative work.

Steve
TW

[ken]

I hope you post more on this. I hear it is about track bias and that you may have a take on that subject.

[Steve]

Ken,

Still had to skim, but I feel comfortable saying that his work has a few different twists and I applaud his promoting the sport. However, I don't think his approach will hold up for the player as he states.

Early speed is early speed no matter what formula one uses. Kleins is no different. I will suggest that his failure rate to accurately predict the early speed in any race would be par for any good software element.

Lets say that we all agree that Ken has the best early speed software predictor out there in this big old market place. So we take Kens figures and run them against all races since time begin. My guess is that we would end up with the percentage of winners we would mathematically expect. Sad thing is that in the end it will be a negative ROI. No magic figures--early speed or not, and certainly Kleins formula is no better than average.

Bottom line..a great big old book about one figure that at best -is average.

Thats my story and I believe it.

Steve
TW

[ken]

Yes Steve, I know you are correct in that no matter what method, system, or angle used there has to be a way to qualify it for certain races or entries rather than a one-size-fits-all. Early speed is generally considered to do better in shorter races, for instance, and on speed-favoring tracks often.
Predicting which races will play out as expected is one of the biggest tricks of handicapping! That is why I like to have different methods of 'capping for different circumstances.
Any book that produces food for thought is worthwhile!

[trifecta mark]

Every Sunday night and/or Monday night I try to review my handicapping library. Read for a couple hours. Authors are Beyer, Davidowitz, Liften, Meadow, Mitchell, Quinn, Cardello, Stich, Ainsle etc. I find it always helps to brush up on their angles and tips to incorporate then into my own thinking. Nothing specific is relevent or particularly significant in all situations all the time of course...but it can help me from making some errors. I can actually be heard quoting a particular line or passage to a close friend when asked about a particular angle at the venue while handicapping an upcoming race. I wish there were more good texts. I would love to add to my library. I have not purchased Klien's book but i do have the expanded exerpt from the DRF. His emphasis is on early speed. The "universal" American bias on dirt. I felt that I already knew that but if someone out there thinks it is important..I will purchase. Any others out there that have made a difference in skill for anyone?

[ken]

I like your posts and writing style.

[vtbob]

My latest read was "Six Secrets of Successful Bettors" by Scatoni and Fornatale (DRF Press, NY, 2005). There really aren't any "secrets" in the book, but tons of interesting quotes from "Pro's" who sometimes disagree with each other. A really interesting read.

[Steve]

VTBOB,

Very good to see you here. As I already know you have a lot to offer. Don't forget to place your Web Page in the :

Software, Systems, Handicapping Picks for Sale forum.

Steve
TW

[bettowin]

Have read many books on racing over the years, just read
Speed To Spare by Joe Cardello. Mainly read books to refresh
my memory on some points I may have forgotten.

[4jayman]

I found Kliens book to be very informative and of great help in refreshing my handicapping mind. While I feel what he presents only validates what most of us who have been around this game for 20 + yrs have observed its nice to have that research. Also I used to use Quirin speed points to help visualize how a race would set up so I was intrigued by Kliens argument that his speed points were better. I reworked about 50 races making sure to include the ones where I was dead wrong on my prediction of how the race would run and I agree. All in all one of the more beneficial books Ive read in the last couple of years.

[bettowin]

Just Read Handicapping Contest Handbook, A horseplayers guide to
handicapping tournaments. Interesting reading and one of the best
advices made is to pick horses between 5/1 odds and 20/1 odds
most contests have set odds of 20/1 so getting higher odds than that
would not help you payoff. And picking favorites would likely get you
nowhere.

[Rudy]

just to let you know that one of our finalists from Tampa finished 2nd in the National Hand. contest in Vegas with a $90.00 + horse so the key to some cntests is ti find out the average winners total....

[ken]

I just started reading his book, I love that it is full of stats! I have not read the speed points part too much yet, but I looked at and marked trainers and jockeys.
I can get an idea of how early speed does at various tracks- surprised by some in Northern Ca!
The jockey section is especially great bexause some jockeys get out early at several tracks, and some just certain tracks. I am particularly looking at comparing jockeys' early speed win % to ROI- maybe should be 10% wins to $2 Roi. I'm figuring longshot early speed when the ratio is over 2-1, like 10% wins and $5 ROI.

[2000_ls1]

Just curious as to what you guys think about John Lindley. I am currently reading Handicapping: For Bettor or Worse, seems ok so far but just curious if anyone else has read this or something else he may have wrote? I am fairly new to the sport but with all due respect, I dove in head first.

Thanks in advance.
2000_LS1

[lvcookie]

About "Speed to Spare" The only thing I found in the book that I kinda look at are the Jockey stats, finding out who goes for speed.

Ken - Las Vegas

[Capper Al]

Klein is worth the read. He is a good refresher for those of us who have been playing for years and understand the value of early speed. He would make a good introduction to early speed for cappers just starting to read books.

What shouldn't be overlooked in Klein is that he sides with Quirin by basing his system on relative position at the first call. With all the modern figures focusing on speed or pace to the first and second call, it is good to take a fresh look at where the horse is relative to others in the duel for early dominance. The co-relation between Klein and modern software is at best a coincidence since most software is speed and/or pace based.