Peak Energy-what events reveal present form

[gestalt]

For Ken, post position is relative to the track, distance, and quality of competition. Any event considered must be relative to all events, if not, then you have gestalt. When i handicap a race, I consider the pace,(early, sustained, and late), post position, weight, track surface, track record, distance, comment line, jockey, trainer, winning distance, class and race pars, and chaos. When trainer intent can be ciphered, then maybe a betting proposition is in order. When a jock takes a horse wide both turns, what in the mayhem is going on? When all events can be expressed in related values, predicitve analysis is a lot easier. Any comments?

[ken]

What I consider in handicapping and betting depends on the race. in most I cover all that you mentioned and more, but each race is unique so the priority given to certain variables is different in every race- otherwise you bet every race the same based on the same weight given to the same factors.
As to a horse being wide on both turns in the PP's, I do not assume it is a stiff job. I have seen many horses go wide because they need at leas 2 lengths front and/or 2 lengths in back in order to move across another horse and they do not have that room. I have also been a horse many lengths back going 8 wide on both turns.
I do not belive there is any more intent to stiff a horse GOING INTO a race than illegal doping going on (under 2%).
There is more "Stiffing" going on during a race which means jockey not pushing a horse so hard that it messes up a quick runback. Horses need a certain amount of time to recover, just like a human weight trainer should not work out every day but every 2-3 days.
To me I can see some very obvious signs a trainer does not intend to win going in, but not many:
Placed above its level, especially just after a maiden win; coming back from a layoff into a race lower than prior means training is giving an easy race or looking for the proper level; a "contender" who is not normally a front-runner on an outside post in a sprint; sometimes a horse first time front wraps; a long-odds horse at a new track; sometimes a horse who only works out 1 distance but runs another.
Some M/L makers put the above horses at obviously too-low-odds based primarily on who's riding, but most of the time the bettors know it.
Anytime you see a horse entering a race under suspecious circumstances there is probably an overlay somewhere else.
If you waiting until the first trun to check peak energy level you are too late to bet!
Check among other things: ANY major change in training, workout, racing pattern, new equiptment or meds, losing much ground in last and no workouts in the fastest 1/2 of the fraction since, a vastly lower % or keeping a very low % jockey; predicted precipitation compared to the horse's abilities on an off-track, scratches, being a MTO horse in the middle of summer, being and AE horse at low odds ina race that normally draws many horses (a contender should not be entered late if intended to stay in the race).
IMHO, a trainer who puts a horse in as AE or MTO when there is little chance for it to run is just making points with the racing secretary. And of course, if the same trainer several times is barred from their horse running due to a "sudden" weather change or overfilled has a contender later in a race that PERFECTLY fits the horse, do not look for a jockey taking the horse wide on both turns.
If MO horses actually run, are they put into whatever post becomes open or are MTO's just automatically put at the widest post?

[ken]

How do members here decide how much total energy a hoese potantially has?
Knowing how much total energy a horse has, how close to peak it currently has, and can closely assess probable pace and trip must be ahead of the game! All I can base ptential on is top level ITM. All I can base current energy on is what I read as health and training fitness clues. But I am thinking more and more a low or moderate % trainer being able to get a 15% or better jockey on their mount when it looks on paper like a possible contender at 6-1 or longer odds is a decent hint! I figure trainers and jockeuy agents make it their business to know the currebt health and fitness status of most horses on the grounds, especially if that is not the jockey's first-call trainer.
At GGF, Baze has been riding some 5-1 to 10-1 shots because 2 apprentices are hot, but if a ride like that is not for a top trainer or is on a closer I toss the horse.

[gestalt]

I believe you are on to some huge info, The "FORM" should list this energy rating, the ratings we are now getting are erroneous and misleading. The modern trainer has so many means to improve a horse and we are not receiving this data. Tom Ainslee said it best, trainers use distance and class levels to shape, condition, and hide a horse.

[ken]

http://home.att.net/~horsenutrition101/redcell_2.html-
This is an excellent site for physiology and blood test for peak fitness, also mentions 7-14 days to recover energy. Various types of training and racing use varying amounts of electolytes and chemicals. I once read a book by a vet all about showing good energy if a horse is "ridden out" past the wire instead of not being, but of course replays never show that!
Assessing total available energy just prior to a race is something almost inpossible to do without seeing test results- the best I can think of at the moment to tell is reading the lines and in between to make sure a horse is not hurt or too sore and then see if the horse performed well in prior races with similar training patterns to those leading up to the current race.
I am now picking about 50 horses a day on paper and so far only one has failed to finish a race- stepped in a hole in the stretch while leading. None have finished last.
A few horse I see by the PP's are very likely to perform poorly or to break down; some are iffy as to being at peak or "normal" race-ready. Maybe 5-10% are at peak form. Thoae are just the 3 per race that I believe can contend for the win. I have not checked, but the average finish is probably 3rd if you simply add up finish positions and divide by the number of horses (my best was 15 wins of 25 races one day- I have had days when maybe 1/2 were out of the money!).
One thing I am really catching onto lately is when a horse is on a forced layoff due to bleeding. I see mostly no evidence in the comment lines or running line for foot or leg problems but the horse loses maybe 10 or more lengths after the 2nd call and is laid of more 1 or 2 months and then brought back to the same level and raced and worked more sparingly. If sometimes a couple of months after that the horse again fades badly and is laid off 6 months it is EOPH- bleeding in the lungs. Then a horse will have to prove (to me AND the track vet!) it is recovered by workouts and "needing a race" or 3 before it gets my nod for being fit because IMHO they do not perform well after a 6 week+ lay off. Horse laid off for 3 months or less due to leg or foot problems can come right back and win- or they drop level and remain racing at a lower level and sometimes at a smaller track and if not overworked can be successful. But if the PP's show they arte being pushed too hard I will not bet the horse regardless of the odds because it is just too risky for my wallet (and for the horse).
One reason for the big oucry from other trainers and the swift action by racing to stop "milkshaking" even though it is very basic sodium bucarbonate and sugar is that it "artificially" interferes with lactic acid action and causes racehorses not to feel as tired when there electolytes are being depleted- and of course as most probably know, a horse is a lousy judge to begin with of when they are tired or hurt. That is why I think overworking a horse in total training and racing should be dealt with more firmly, especially as I find out more and more about layup farms or other places a horse can recover from intense training or physical problems.
Tom may have different or expanded thoughts on thiese things as he has thebackside experience- I just have experience looking at PP's and checking the results on the charts, and website researching.