Tampa Patterns

[ziadierulestampa]

If you just stick to playing a handful of trainers and jockeys,
Ziadie,Bennett(s),Allen,Proctor(ok again),Scott,
and throwing out the Wasiluks,Rice,McAllisters etal. etc. of the world,
and just keying up Jose Lezcano and Jesus Castonon,even with the 25%
takeout,the late pick 4 at Tampa is " value city",as is a whole lot of other
bets.
Good Luck and Good Racing to all members,and a special thanks to Mr. Steve
for making this sight,and his generous handicapping contests,possible.

[Chuck]

Interesting observation but someone needs to tell me HOW specifically I make money betting a group of Zadie horses that are consistently bet down by the public. I am willing to try anything that the numbers support over time. But I would argue the other side of the coin. A 30% trainer is fantastic but he still loses 70% of the races and when that happens they are normally 4-1 horses going off at 2-1. Kind of reminds me of my home turf Saratoga. With all the summer only players, Bailey being a familiar name ALWAYS forces the price of his horses down making them unplayable unless you really see nothing else in the race.

Maybe Steve has some numbers on what exactly happens to the bankroll when you key on 30% trainers and eliminate other trainers like JoeMc or Rice who WILL by the end of the meet win their share of races. Everyone has cycles...the best trick is to find the hot hand AS IT GETS hot.

Sure, certain tracks like Mountaineer, yes, you can make a career on betting positive rider changes and short term hot trainer cycles but there are reasons for that and those reasons don't exist on a more level playing field like Gulfstream.

But, hey, I am not the smartest banana in the bunch so if someone has a strategy for making money betting only top trainers and eliminating trainers with good stock that are short cycling...I would love to hear about it.

Thoughts, group. I am only one voice and I sure realize I don't know much let alone, it all.

[trifecta mark]

Always look forward now to the winter meet in Tampa. Generally very good weather...fast track...large fields...and lots of outside simulcast play $$$ make for opportunities at this venue and best of all....they refuse to let in the last second rebate shops that depress the odds significantly after the gates are open. {unlike Calder} I believe that many Eastern and Kentucky simulcast players play the Tampa track as an afterthought and superficiailly handicap the races. Many times with less than two minutes to post. That may be why a longer odds horse from the higher percentage trainers may surprise in the exotics. I caution against blindly boxing them all in nearly every situation as suggested however....particularly when they are being bet down. It may work some times but are you getting paid for the real risk you are taking? We all know that nothing is this game is automatic. One has to have a better feel for how the race will unfold, which are the true contenders based on some fundamentals and which entries might improve today. For the past couple of years I used to scrutinize every horse that Day was on in Kentucky for vulnerability. Many times his mount caused an underlay that presented an opportunity elsewhere. I was very sorry he retired! I do the same thing now whenever i see JR on a Pletcher horse. With all due respect that they have truly earned....all of their horses in these 25% trainer barns are NOT created equal. Betting against the vulnerable ones in Saratoga or Gulfstream open the door to nice exotics. I am sure the same is true at TBD.