Time...training

[mop38]

Perusing various posts on my new experience with this web site, it occurred to me that we tend to overlook important information when analyzing races.

Weight could be a factor in distance, and actually was, but I agree, it's less important nowadays. I'm reminded of the movie "Phar Lap" where the trainer put the horse through agony to get him fit, and this I equate to horses that do hurdles and come back to flat racing, though rarely they become instant winners. The rigors of hurdles should make flat racing a cinch.

Time...what time is needed to make better picks at the track?

Often, I run out of time, run to the machine at the last second....and, well sometimes I get shut out. Sometimes I'm glad I was shut out. Other times...

Reminds me of a funny experience a co-worker had when the race went off, both horses were romping for a big exacta payoff, and his track buddy was punching out the machine which was stuck .

In days gone by, he'd be punching out the cashier.

Again, it's information that counts, and how important that information might be is the subject of debates that could last an eternity.

I find, as with the Wall Street Journal or Barrons, most printed information will not be of much value. Variables take care of that in both horseracing and the stock market.

It's still, shall I dare say, Gambling?

[Steve]

In my life I have been involved with both. No matter what the street has been selling over the years to those who should know better it IS gambling as we define it worldwide. Put your money up--no guarantees---and either you win or lose on the event.

For several years I was an active day trader and very successful I might add. I simply decided that I did not want to be a part of the manipulation any more and quit, which was easy to do as I just turned off Real Tic software.

At the track I know who I am turning my money over too and why. I pick my success or demise every day. However, every day people hand their money over to money managers who they don't know and say "invest". Then the fund people decide who they are in bed with--without regard to your lives work--and play with it.

Oh, potatoes had a bad week-who would have thought, and we lost some of your money. Now we are going to move it around and back "oil". Oh, oil went up so we will do better next time with tuna. Oh, by the way, we need some more money from you mom and pop.

It is amazing to me how well Wall Street sells this "American Way" package as non gambling.

Me, I will take the ponies everytime. I am my own fund manager.

Steve

TW

[Chuck]

A comment on printed information.....my experience is that if you rely too much on what is printed, number for number, in the paper or on the sheets, you will think too much like everyone else and it will be hard to find value. I use the very simple Brisnet forms. Everyday, I start out by literally saying to myself that the information contained there is like a "snapshot" in the world of images. As soon as it is published it reflects the PAST. Relying on the distant past, whether it be two weeks or five months, is foolhardy. It can be useful in many ways but as a handicapper you need to learn how to use the past information to predict the present. I think you need some type of form as a start but there is so much more to handicapping. Don't be owned by the forms or you might as well play the stock market and take your chance among the uninformed mass, as Steve points out.

[LongshotLarry]

I agree that most handicappers place way too much importance on the 'numbers'. whether it be beyer speed figures, bris speed figures, rag sheets etc.. The way the horse earned that number is far more important! Did he earn it with a favorable speed bias,post position bias or rail bias? Was he the beneficiary of a perfect trip behind a speed duel? Was he the lone speed of the race? Was he the lone closer?? This is info that you need...I also like to check the paddock and post parade for clues into the horses condition-you can't get that from the racing form or bris sheets..

LL

[trifecta mark]

1} hey fellas..... History tells us that the US stock market appreciates 63% of the time and declines 37% of the time. (many people do not realize that approximately 85% of the total average appreciation in a calender year comes in just five explosive trading sessions!} A large portion of the annual average return from equities comes from dividends. There is a tremendous amount of risk owning individual companies if you are not willing to diversify. No matter how well a particular company is doing....it is difficult for most to measure the results versus investor expectations. Since "timing" is nearly impossible.....the market should be considered a long term investment. It takes dicipline to prune your losses in a tax efficient manor and be "in" for the long term. The only "takeout" is the brokerage fees and management fees associated with funds. Most can be minimized these days 2] at the races....we have a different set a variables....The onerous takeout does not allow for a very conservative long term "diversified approach". In concept:A chalk player believes in continuity. What happened before in recent pp will happen again. A longshot player believes in dramatic change. He thinks a surprize will occur that didn't happen before. A true handicapper believes in both to some degree. He is looking for past performances that may portend a change is coming. An improvement from a higher odds contender or a regression from a vulnerable favorite he might be able to recognize. An angle that has worked in a past similiar situation. He needs to have these overlays in order to overcome the 20% "juice" The para-mutual game at the track and the world equity markets are two completely different venues and must be treated as such. Play your bankrolls accordingly. Life is good...enjoy it all! :)

[Chuck]

Larry and Mark are addressing different areas of the initial post, but man, if this was a competition for carpenters there would be two winners as both these guys hit the nail square on the head with their comments.

If anyone doubts the fragile aspect to speed numbers just go bet them race after race...ouch. You'd lose along with half the grandstand that are one dimensional handicappers. Larry is perfectly on mark.....the number is fine but HOW he horse earned it is far more important for TODAY. Try to remember this. That actual number was important the day it was earned. The top number went to the winner and so forth. Today, though, its days or weeks later and how that horse varies from that number is the key so knowing how he earned it versus what he is contending against today is of far more value.

Secondarily, you better use those eyes before the race. Did anyone happen to watch Forli's Con Man warm up the other day? First start for the new trainer. Bucking, kicking, you name it. A page out of the hot horse book. Bad number last race for a push button horse at Tampa.....figure out why....ah...maybe a scared rider on the bad number day. Ferrer back on today after his Hawaii trip....6-1...you must be kidding!! There are similar examples every day. Any one of you out there can give me three or four after today's races, I bet. Here is my favorite number in racing.....2. That is the number of eyes God gave me and like Larry I use them to the max before every race.

[ken]

Srart sooner!
Information- Reading between the lines or, interpreting the informatin given, is all you can really do to beat the takeout (crowd). That means understanding that everything relates to the current race only; including given information, researched information, and variables applied.
The extent to which your own bets are gambling is everything that you cannot be confident in that your overall betting will result in a positive ROI. That is why you assess and weigh the risk against the probable outcome to determine value.

[mop38]

I can tell, you are all BRILLIANT!

Your answers to my "Time...Training" enforced my beliefs, and opened my mind more than I thought it could be.

I coupled the stock market and horseracing in error.

Indeed, two separate entities with differing horizons!

And, I might add, neither may constitute "gambling".

BOTH require thought and planning...and...timing is all important in each.

Gambling, well I've always maintained it's that dream of the numbers 123, which I immediately used in my lottery betting. That's PURE GAMBLING.

At this point I feel I should explain why I chose MOP38 as my user name.

I bought some stock about fifteen years ago, happened to be the bank that held the mortgage on Calumet farm, which defaulted when it became impossible to keep breeding Alydar. The bank was taken over by the FDIC.

The FDIC sold all their branches, and low and behold, they made a multi-million dollar profit. At that point, the bank sued the FDIC, and it's preferred stock shot up from $1.00 a share to $39.00 in about three months.

I cashed out and bought a racehorse with my winnings.

His name...Monopolizer. I enjoyed 38 races owning him, just 3 wins, lots of close seconds and thirds. Thus MOP38.

I plan to be a member for a long time with this site I happened upon by accident when I was looking for information on the owner of Man O' War,
Sam Riddle. I enjoy good debating and believe I will get it here.

Good luck, yeah, life it good!