1st 09 Derby Toss

[sdi1958]

It's January 5th and I have eliminated (1) horse from the 09 Derby. The unlucky candidate is Haynesfield. I hope the owners save this horse from humiliation and keep him in lesser company or sprinting. There will be many more horses to follow.
SDI

[Janice Love]

Why eliminate a horse who did what he had to do, to win? It appeared to be a very easy win for the horse .....move him right along to the next level.

[danstep43]

I agree JAN.....way too early to toss winners....look I agree SDI this horse may only be a sprinter...BUT, the horse has won 3 in a row after his maiden try at TOGA....I would not give up on him.........yet

[Jerfi]

Ole Jerfi bet on Haynesfield .... and he almost never bets 3 yr olds before they have run at least 8 times, and then the others must have run at least 5 or 6 times. I saw him as that much better than the rest. We don't know, yet, how good the horse is, but we do know he is raking in some ds:ds: for his connections.

This horse clearly dominated the field on Saturday. I liked his stretch run. It was classic, in that he readily handled the task at hand. Until he IS beaten, convincingly, a time or two, without excuse, let's let him dream of 'rose glory.'

I don't know if he will be better at sprints than the longer distances, but he does have a serious win at a mile/70 ....and he was drawing away from the field, to win by 3 or more. He looked to me like he could add some distance, and not be finished too early. We will see!

[danstep43]

J:

peeps were concerned he was "lugging in" in the stretch but that doesn't bother me unless it continues.....his daddy was a sprinter and he has sprinters type family but again...so was DISTORTED HUMOR and he is a top sire right now

[djunior]

I thought it was a pretty impressive. He had trouble changing leads, and when he did he blew by the other horse. Changing leads can be fixed in the training. We are 5 months to the DERBY, but this horse doesn't look that bad. On the other hand, WESLEY WARD's horse that won the Spectular Bid's stakes will be quite the sprinter.

[djunior]

9th race on Wednesday at Gulfstream will be a good race to watch. 3 year old Maiden Special Weight for a mile and 1/8 at Gulfstream normally produce some top Derby horses.

I will be watching the 7, 9,10, 11 closely.

[sdi1958]

While the lugging in and out was obvious. The (3) reasons I've tossed him are - breeding, late foal date(5/12) and while running up the backside he was on a free-reign. I personally liked the effort of the 2nd place horse - Jess Not Jesse - He has the excellent breeding to run all day and Rice is still doing some experimenting with him. He does have to step up big time next out, or he'll join the list as well.

I hope Jerf played the exacta instead of playing this horse to win.

To All,
This will be my 34th Derby. I now have TVG and HRTV to view all 3yo races. With the exception of Dubai, I don't think there will be any off the wall surprises this year. I beleive any Maiden horse with a chance will have to had a big race run before the end of January. I look forward to watching and analizing every race of significance. I also look forward to everone's responses and opinions.

Stay Tuned
SDI1958

[danstep43]

I would add the 1 to that list David

[Jerfi]

While the lugging in and out was obvious.

I guess I saw the 'lugging' as more like green running, rather than a true lug. His acceleration, to me, gainsays any real lugging.

Jerfi did not play the exacta, rarely does, but a $3.00 horse that I had 'capped as a solid 1/9 horse is always welcome.

[djunior]

I would add the 1 to that list David

Dan my brother thinks the 1 will run a big race as well.

2 Allowance race for 3 year olds on Thursday.

Lets see if we find any shaprt horses out of these races.

[sdi1958]

Updated List of Toss-Outs dated 2/10. The head of the list remains to be the original nominee:
"Haynesfield" and all horses out of the Whirlaway
Papa Clem - don't be fooled by his 2nd place finish
Bittel Road - will see him at the CA fairs in the summer
Shafted - highly touted after last - stunk it up
Indygo Mountain(Is listed off the trail now)
Au Moon - even paced thru out
Uno Mas - just like his daddy - wouldn't make the distance.

As mentioned originally - more to follow next Tuesday after they chase "Old Fashioned" on Monday.

SDI - Duluth

[ironmikejones]

a filly is going to win it this year::;


stardom bound derby winner

[FastG45]

Only ones I'm tossin at this point are the ones on the disabled list

I'm going to sort the rest into 2nd and 3rd level horse's

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pODFSWAEZ_zckRzvcf5AOdA

[Garrett918]

M/L Future......HAYNESFIELD....50/1
......................WEST SIDE BERNIE 50/1

[sdi1958]

I don't normally jump in big in the 1st round of these wagering pools. But with the pool closing on Sunday and Old Fashoined running on Monday. This could be a great opportunity for a layover on the possible derby favorite.
I'm Jumping,
SDIds:

[sdi1958]

You can add Vineyard Haven to the list, he just got ran over today by his stablemates in Dubai.