09 Derby

[FastG45]

In just a few weeks, after Jan. 1st, our attention will turn to the long road traveled by 3-year-olds on the way to the Triple Crown of 2009.

Several graded events remain for 2-year-old males on the calendar.

Maybe next years Derby winner will come out of one these races.

Grade III Hollywood Prevue on Nov. 23
Grade II Remsen and Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 29;
Grade III Boyd Gaming Delta Jackpot on Dec. 5
Grade I Hollywood Futurity on Dec. 20.

Top prospects so far for next years Derby:
Synthetic:
Midshipman
Square Eddie
Street Hero
Terrain
Coronet of a Baron
Chocolate Candy (http://www.drf.com/OpenHorseWatch.do?rNo=06001989&horseName=Chocolate Candy&startRow=1&sortBy=N)
Dirt:
Vineyard Haven
Charitable Man
Break Water Edison

Maybe the Derby will be won by a horse we haven't even heard of yet.
A horse that didn't run at 2? Maybe

Please feel free to add horses to this post that you think have a chance to make it to the Kentucky Derby and maybe win it.

[panzyjo]

HOLLYWOOD PREVUE , 23 NOV.......

MARK CASSE'S...... CONGOR BAY

JJP

[FastG45]

Hey panzyjo, Congor Bay got mixed up in and pressed the pace. He might need to go shorter or maybe he hasn't got accustom to the weather in Cal. yet. and Mark wasn't there, he sent an assistant.

I'm definitely going to add the winner Jack o' Lantern to the old watch list for next year. Don't know if he will make it to the derby but his pedigree suggest he can go longer and the time for the 7 bars today was only 7 tics off the track record.

Also I'm adding Azul Leon to the list. He was coming with a rush at the end but just didn't have enough, but ran a good race, longer? Maybe. Azul Leon ran aganist Midshipman, Square Eddie, and Street Hero last time out in a G1 and didn't do too bad. Two races back the same thing, he ran against Street Hero and Midshipman in a G1.

Jack o' Lantern and Azul Leon go on the Synthetic list

[FastG45]

After reading the charts last night I think I'm going to add Paul Pompa's horse Well Positioned to my watch list for 09'.

Well Positioned won by 14 1/4 in the sixth race at Aqueduct Nov. 22. He covered the mile in 1:38 3/5, which isn't all that but stakes horses ran their mile in 1:40 in the Discovery Handicap (gr. III) in the following race.

Well Positioned is bred to run all day, being by Awesome Again, out of a Holy Bull mare, and his second dam is by the Galbreath family’s Hail the Pirates.

Well positioned goes on the dirt list.

[vicmac]

In just a few weeks, after Jan. 1st, our attention will turn to the long road traveled by 3-year-olds on the way to the Triple Crown of 2009.

Several graded events remain for 2-year-old males on the calendar.

Maybe next years Derby winner will come out of one these races.

Grade III Hollywood Prevue on Nov. 23
Grade II Remsen and Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 29;
Grade III Boyd Gaming Delta Jackpot on Dec. 5
Grade I Hollywood Futurity on Dec. 20.

Top prospects so far for next years Derby:
Synthetic:
Midshipman
Square Eddie
Street Hero
Terrain
Coronet of a Baron
Chocolate Candy (http://www.drf.com/OpenHorseWatch.do?rNo=06001989&horseName=Chocolate Candy&startRow=1&sortBy=N)
Dirt:
Vineyard Haven
Charitable Man
Break Water Edison

Maybe the Derby will be won by a horse we haven't even heard of yet.
A horse that didn't run at 2? Maybe

Please feel free to add horses to this post that you think have a chance to make it to the Kentucky Derby and maybe win it.
none of those horses will even hit the bord in the derbybf. maybe midshipman might get 8throfl

[FastG45]

none of those horses will even hit the bord in the derby

Well Victor, it is way too early to tell who might make it to the big dance. But every year after the Breeder’s Cup I start looking at the two year olds for next year. I don’t think all these horses on this post will make it either. I like following horses from their beginning because we might be playing them for real money next year and maybe two or three years from now.

I was hoping people would post horses they think have a chance and someone would put a few horses up that will at least run in the Derby. Do you have any early Derby horses you think might make it? Most people wait til after some of the big prep races in the spring before they start considering horses for the Derby. I’m just trying to get a head start.

[vicmac]

Well Victor, it is way too early to tell who might make it to the big dance. But every year after the Breeder’s Cup I start looking at the two year olds for next year. I don’t think all these horses on this post will make it either. I like following horses from their beginning because we might be playing them for real money next year and maybe two or three years from now.

I was hoping people would post horses they think have a chance and someone would put a few horses up that will at least run in the Derby. Do you have any early Derby horses you think might make it? Most people wait til after some of the big prep races in the spring before they start considering horses for the Derby. I’m just trying to get a head start.
Well Positioned dang i saw that race and he blew them away at 41-1 odds i think something like that...your right its early thats why I'm being a a zz as usualbf. i sure got a felling a long shot is going to win this year....like between 8-15 to one odds...i'm going to look at the horses in the big prep races who finish 2, 3,4 and if they qualify for the derby????its onbf.

[deltasports]

REAL DERBY CONTENDERS

FRANKEL'S HORSE & PATRICK REYNOLDS HORSE hh) >>>THE REST OF THEM MENTIONED SO FAR ARE RATS

[FastG45]

Thanks Gene,

I really value your opinion and I'm going to move those two to the top of the list.

20 will probably go, so now we need 18 more.

[FastG45]

Mr. Larry jones has been the brides maid the last two years in the Kentucky Derby with Hard Spun and the filly that broke down, will the third time be a charm with Old Fashioned ? He might emerge as a serious contender for next year's Kentucky Derby. I have to add him to the list for dirt runners.

Also I think we should keep an eye on the top three finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. That being Beethoven, Giant Oak, and Capt Candyman Can. Add them to the dirt list although they might be second level horses.

[deltasports]

OLD FASHION IS THE REAL DEAL..I COULD HAVE RIDDEN HIM YESTERDAY..PORTER
PAID $800,000 FOR HIM..I WOULD MAKE HIM THE 3-1 FAVORITE IN THE FUTURES..tro( ::;

[deltasports]

FRANKEL'S HORSE "VINEYARD HAVEN" IS NO LONGER HIS HORSE..HE SOLD IT TO THE GUYS IN DUBAI...bh)

[FastG45]

Street Hero

Take Street Hero off the list, he has been retired

That is all

[deltasports]

WOULD ANYONE LIKE TO KNOW HOW MUCH BOBBY FRANKEL GOT FOR "VINEYARD HAVEN"..LET SEE ALL THE GUESSES OUT THERE tro(

[danstep43]

somewhere between 10-15 million I believe Gene.....

[deltasports]

It Was $12 Million.....i Got It From The Horses Mouth

Now Do U Know How Much Bobby Bought The Horse For After Vineyard Broke His Madian At Calder..???

[FastG45]

Do U Know How Much Bobby Bought The Horse For?

I have no idea but I bet it was a lot less then $12,000,000 and I think he had to split the purchase price and the profit with his two partners, Joe Torre and Louis Lazzinnaro.

I do know Vineyard was privately acquired from Lynne M. Scace.

Scace also won a stakes with Vineyard Haven's older half-brother On the Vineyard. The two half-siblings are the only stakes winners produced from any of their first five dams.

Vineyard Haven's dam, Princess Aloha, has experienced difficulties after producing the Champagne winner. She slipped foals two consecutive years and currently is not in foal.

[deltasports]

AND THE PRICE WAS

$300,000 a: a: a: ::; ::; ::;

[FastG45]

I'm adding Big Drama, West Side Bernie, and Stimulus Plan to my watch list

[FastG45]

In what has to be one of the strongest and deepest 2-year-old allowance fields ever assembled at Fair Grounds, nine juveniles will go to the post in Thursday’s 6th race, 12-11-08

1 Mile | Open | 2 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $44,000

[FastG45]

nine juveniles will go to the post

The nine will have to battle another day due to a snow storm in New Orleans. Racing was canceled 12-11-08

[FastG45]

http://www.wisegorilla.com/images/chinese/1-ox.jpg

The year of the Ox has given us 2 Triple Crown Winners. In 1937 it gave us War Admiral and in 1973 it gave us Secretariat.

No year has given us more than 2 winners and out of 12 types of years 5 have been goose egged. They are the Tiger, Dragon, Monkey, Rooster, and Rabbit.

Now for you superstitious types, 1937 + 36 years = 1973 + 36 years = 2009!!

[FastG45]

Add Patena to the list. Patena already was a Top 10 Kentucky Derby contender in many polls. With Dutrow at the controls, he becomes legitimate Top 5 material.

Patena has a stronger case as a Triple Crown contender than Big Brown did a year ago at this time. While Big Brown obviously was a brilliant character, his raw ability outshone his deficiencies in experience and pedigree. Patena possesses more of a complete package, though I would not dare argue that he stacks up on the single-race, brilliance meter by any stretch vs. his predecessor, Big Brown.

Patena might be the best-bred, most proven horse Rick's ever had the chance to lay his second-hand hands upon. This is not a horse with a sketchy pedigree or questions about which surface he can handle. He's not damaged goods with tender tootsies that demand more attention than a needy girlfriend.

At this time last year, Big Brown owned only a single career race on the Saratoga turf. He did not make his dirt debut (or 3-year-old debut) until March 5. Patena already has five career starts at five different distances, competing over three types of running surfaces, and has won a stakes race at 1 1/16 miles.

Love him or hate him, think he's a cheat or a genius, it's impossible to deny Rick Dutrow can make an impact on a horserace

[FastG45]

Mr. Larry Jones, third time be a charm with Old Fashioned

Anybody catch Old Fashioned's work out this morning?

Fair GroundsSurfaceDirt (Gate)Distance5 FurlongsWorkout typeBreezingWorkout time0:58.80

Looks to be getting ready to make Larry proud

[sdi1958]

I agree "Old Fashioned" is the real deal. It looks as if he's progressed nicely. I've watched the Remsen over and over, he looks like another War Emblem. He looks to have the most natural speed of all that I've seen.
Top Of My LIst,
SDI

[FastG45]

I think we should keep an eye on the top three finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. That being Beethoven, Giant Oak, and Capt Candyman Can. Add them to the dirt list although they might be second level horses.

Capt. Candyman Can has enough Graded money to get in now. Another win for a Candy Ride horse, they are starting to add up. Capt. Candyman Can's win in the Hutcheson Stakes was an ok time. How much further can he go? Chart said he was fully extended.

The verdict is still out on the other two. We will have to see what Beethoven does tomorrow.

Going to move Hello Broadway down the list with the second level horses.

I was disappointed with Break Water Edison's effort. Moving him down the list too.

[FastG45]

West Side Bernie -watch list

Saratoga Sinner, what a great name, anybody that has been to Saratoga is guilty, LOL

Sinner and the Bear battled and they both worked hard. Another 1/8? Maybe. There on the list somewhere in the middle. My list has over 100 horses on it now. Going to start thinning them in three levels later in the spring.

Don't give up on West Side Bernie. They call these preps for a reason. He didn't even try to stay close to the pace and made a nice run, a little late and very wide. Keeping Bernie in the top 25 for now.

[FastG45]

Danger to Society has been moved from trainer Kenny McPeek's barn to Rick Dutrow.

Hope Rick can stop the bleeding

[sdi1958]

I'm surprised that knowone made mention of Beethoven's and West Side Bernie's efforts in the Holy Bull. I thought they both had the worst of it from a trip standpoint. They're next races should show significant improvement. Wich ever one improves, that one will be added to my "Top 10" list.
SDI

[FastG45]

Wich ever one improves

I look for West Side Bernie to improve more then Beethoven.

I mentioned Bernie, his race wasn't bad, I'm keepping Bernie on the list for now, but Beethoven, the chart said he gave way, I've never liked that comment. Plus Beethoven was up near the pace where Bernie came from way back and was running on.

Does anybody know if naming the horse West Side Bernie had anything to do with Bernie Madoff the Ponzi Man? Doesn't he live on the west side?

If God has anything to do with it, he will let the people that got burned bet what they got left on Bernie's races so they can get a little money back. Karma Baby!!

What a Crazy thought, LOL

[FastG45]

I thought I would try to review this weeks 3yr old action starting with the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Friesan Fire stamped himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender by winning his second consecutive graded stakes race. Last year Larry was loaded with fillies, it looks like he has at least two good colts going forward. I was disapointed with Giant Oak although he finished fifth with a little late run, he did miss the break and was caught in traffic through the turn. I've not giving up on him yet.

Now on to the Robert Lewis Stakes. Top West Coast Polly Plodder Pioneerof the Nile overcame traffic problems on the final turn, charged from the back of the pack, in a race he did not need to win. None of it mattered in a performance that stamped him as one of the top west coast contenders for the Kentucky Derby. “We had a Kentucky Derby-type trip," Gomez commented. I say we still have to see him on dirt before the Derby.

Ok, how about that Hot Lady, Stardom Bound? In the Las Virgenes she had a few anxious moments when she was caught in traffic, Mike found a hole at the quarter pole, and once she got through that's all she wrote. Unless something happens, she is defintely going against the boys in the Santa Anita Derby. Even if she beats the boys the Pro-Ride bitch hasn't gotten dirty yet.

Haynesfield, a true dirty bird in the Whirlaway. The front-running colt has never smelled the plastic. He made a comfortable lead with Mr. Ramon Dominguez aboard and never looked back, oh except at the 1/8 pole when Ramon looked and saw nobody so he started to gear him down, (AT THE 1/8 POLE!!). Haynesfield might have more stamina then most people give him credit for, we'll just have to wait and see how far he will go.

Honorable Mention to Parade Clown for winning the WEBN at Turfway. I don't think he will make it to the Derby but he might win some other minor stakes or big allowance race's this year. Same with a lot of the horses that are nominated to the Triple Crown.

http://www.drf.com/newsletter/tcnoms09.pdf List of Nominations

Note: I'm not even considering the terrorist horses yet until we know who's coming but when they do you will have to take a good long look.

[sdi1958]

I'm still against Haynesfield, he hasn't beat a thing in NY. The one good thing is, he should have plenty in the tank when he does get tested. We'll see how he handles getting hooked up with Mr. Fantasy next time out.

FYI - I just completed my Top 10 in the RTTR contest. Except for "Old Fashoined", they are in no particular order:

Old Fashioned - Pioneerof The Nile - Friesan Fire - Giant Oak - Patena - Big Drama - Capt. Candyman Can - Flying Pegasus - Midshipman and West Side Bernie.

Is anyone else in the contest?

SDI

[FastG45]

hooked up with Mr. Fantasy

Is anyone else in the contest?



Yeah, I want to see that too, Fantasy is Fast

I'm in the contest, name of my stable is "Pasture Mix"

I have some of the same horse's as you, wish we could pick more then ten

I so confused, throwing some of the ones out that I did, Oh well, only time will tell

[sdi1958]

Yeah, I want to see that too, Fantasy is Fast

I'm in the contest, name of my stable is "Pasture Mix"

I have some of the same horse's as you, wish we could pick more then ten

I so confused, throwing some of the ones out that I did, Oh well, only time will tell

My stable name is Magarita's Especial, last year I was part of a public group with friends I go to the derby with. If they have it again and you or anyone else is interested, I'll post the group here for entry.
My best year in the contest was the Smarty Jones year, I finished 7th and won a jacket.
Good Luck - SDI

[deltasports]

SO FAR!!!! I LIKE "OLD FASHION" .hh) ..WE SHALL SEE WHAT WE SHALL SEE!!

[FastG45]

"OLD FASHION"

Gene, if everything goes well for Larry and both his horses make it to the Derby, do you think there is any chance he will try to use one as a rabbit?

And if his does, which one?

Or do it think it's a better possibility that they will run one, two?

[FastG45]

Top Fifty Equibase Speed Figures for Three-Year-Olds

http://blog.trackmaster.com/?p=354

[danstep43]

EVERYBODY needs to add DESERT PARTY to their list IMO

[FastG45]

DESERT PARTY

Just added him, got him #9 as of now, there changing every weekend.

THANKS

[manassas]

Yea Im in with two entrys under MadMike22 and MadMike33 Madison and Michael my grand children

[deltasports]

OLD FASHION IS THE REAL DEAL..I COULD HAVE RIDDEN HIM YESTERDAY..PORTER
PAID $800,000 FOR HIM..I WOULD MAKE HIM THE 3-1 FAVORITE IN THE FUTURES..tro( ::;
================================================== ========

WELL HE WASNT 3-1>>HE OPENED UP AT 10-1 & CLOSED AT 7-1 YESTERDAY IN POOL #1

TODAY HE WILL RUN IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 9TH AT OAKLAWN
POST TIME IS 6:02 EASTERN..

I LIKE A $100 EXACTA 3/5 BOX >> SILVER CITY/OLD FASHION

AS CHALKY AS IT CAN GET

[FastG45]

EXACTA 3/5 BOX

AS CHALKY AS IT CAN GET

Thanks Gene, I didn't bother boxin it, played it straight for $20.00

[FastG45]

Could there be three fillies in the Derby this year?

Is it possible?

[djunior]

================================================== ========

WELL HE WASNT 3-1>>HE OPENED UP AT 10-1 & CLOSED AT 7-1 YESTERDAY IN POOL #1

TODAY HE WILL RUN IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 9TH AT OAKLAWN
POST TIME IS 6:02 EASTERN..

I LIKE A $100 EXACTA 3/5 BOX >> SILVER CITY/OLD FASHION

AS CHALKY AS IT CAN GET

You got that race quite right. Old fashion was quite good

[FastG45]

The Fountain of Youth is shaping up to be one of the most confusing of a race as I've seen in some time because of the shortened distance to a flat mile around one turn. Rarely have we seen so many quality gas-burners try to match strides with Derby distance-types in a race of this magnitude.

The sprinters are This Ones For Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Taqarub. Notonthesamepage won in his last out 1:08.48, missing the track record by two-hundredths of a second. He'll be the early gas, no doubt, and figures to be tested throughout by Taqarub. They will try and hold Phil.

The middle-distance players are Capt. Candyman Can and Break Water Edison.

The pure routers are Beethoven and turf star Jack Spratt, and add to the mix the one-two finishers in one of the meet's premier allowance races, Theregoesjojo and Quality Road. There is probably someone I've missed or maybe a late entry.

Have to wait for the draw, scratches, and track conditions, but right now I'm leaning towards Capt. Candyman Can and Jack Spratt.

Any thoughts? This race should answer a few questions and give us another piece of the Derby puzzle

[FastG45]

Now I would like to talk about the Sham Stakes,

The Pamplemousse, The Pamplemousse, The Pamplemousse, The Pamplemousse, and The Pamplemousse

Need I say more?

[FastG45]

Zensational

Keep an eye on this one if he can stretch out.

Look for Baffert to run both Zensational and Mayor Marv in next month's WinStar Derby

One, Two finish? Maybe, don't know who else will be running.

[FastG45]

Good Article about Jack Sprat. Jack Conway, Kentucky's 39-year-old attorney general whose father is majority owner of Jack Sprat and a member of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission likes his chances.

Look for the two Candy Ride steeds to run down the pace tomorrow and be bobbin at the end in the Fountain of Youth.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090227/SPORTS08/902270469/1037

[FastG45]

The Pamplemousse

The Pamplemousse, named after a restaurant near Del Mar and means "Grapefruit" in French won the Sham in a very good time and made it look easy.

Jockey Alex Solis rode The Pamplemousse like a guy driving to the grocery store at midnight. Nobody in front, nobody to the side. No sweat.

When Take The Points got close, The Pamplemousse merely shrugged and went to yet another gear.

Julio Canani is not training this horse, the horse is training him!!

We still don't know how he will act on the good old fashioned natural terra firma but I think this polly plodder will handle it.

There are two months to go before the big show. So, if form holds for two more months and The Pamplemousse continues to show well, including his likely next outing in the April 4 Santa Anita Derby, the state of Kentucky and the world of horse racing won't quite know what hit them.

They'll be putting grapefruit squares in the mint juleps.

[deltasports]

I Would Keep Him On The Polysxxx..he Hits The Ground To Hard For The Dirt..my Opinion Only

[FastG45]

Just another list, Graded Money as of 03-03-09.

You will have to adjust for the ones that are out and upcoming races after they are run.

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings

[FastG45]

There is sure to be some controversy when the bubble horse (20th place Graded Money) doesn't get in because of an European horse. If the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes accepts the bid and comes to America, then only the top 19 American Graded Horses will get in. Whether this will sit well with American trainers remains to be seen.

Right now Beethoven is on the Bubble, (Check Updated Graded Money List on Link in Above Post). This is sure to change, just a reference for now, this weekend will bring some big changes.

[FastG45]

Graded Money List

You will have to adjust

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings

You can toss out the first two, Stardom Bound and Square Eddie and #16 Rachel Alexandra. By the looks of it I don't think any of the fillies are coming now. It's funny, just two months ago I thought there might be a chance three fillies might make it now I don't think any will unless a Filly wins the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes.

You can toss #5 Vineyard Haven and #13 Capt. Candyman Can

Can't wait for this weekends action

[FastG45]

Dual Qualifiers for 2009

Horse - Exp.Weight - Dosage
Midshipman - 126 - 2.37 - Out
Vineyard Haven - 124 - 3.00 - Out
Square Eddie - 123 - 3.40 - Out
Street Hero - 122 - 3.57 - Out
Donativum (GB) - 120 - 1.50 - CD=.50
Pioneerof the Nile - 120 - 3.89 - CD=.86
Westphalia (Ire) - 119 - 2.40 - CD=.65
Coronet of a Baron - 118 - 1.91 - CD=.50
I Want Revenge - 118 - 3.00 - CD=.69
Terrain - 118 - 2.20 - CD=.63
Big Drama - 117 - 3.00 - Out
Charitable Man - 117 - 2.06 - CD-.69
Believe in Hope - 116 - 3.00 - CD=1.00
Chocolate Candy - 116 - 2.08 - CD=.70
Del Conte - 116 - 1.67 - CD=.50
Southern Exchange - 116 - 2.69 - CD=.75
West Side Bernie - 116 - 1.80 - CD=.50

Non-qualifiers for 2009

Old Fashioned - 121 - 5.22 - CD=.96
Springside (f) - 117 - 4.33 - CD=1.13
Beethoven - 116 - 5.86 - CD=1.17
Run Away and Hide - 116 - 7.00 - CD=1.29

Qualifying fillies for 2009

Stardom Bound - 124 - 3.36 - CD=.88
Dream Empress - 120 - 0.92 - CD=.08
Laragh - 117 - 2.25 - CD=.58
Sky Diva - 117 - 3.33 - CD=.73
Doremifasollatido - 116 - 1.22 - CD=.25
Mani Bhavan - 116 - 2.27 - CD=.78
Maram - 116 - 1.91 - CD=.69
Rachel Alexandra - 116 - 1.55 - CD=.43
Heart Shaped - 115 - 1.67 - CD=.44
Wynning Ride - 115 - 2.00 - CD=.67

[FastG45]

Explanation of The Experimental Free Handicap weight assignments and the list of this years horses:

http://www.jockeyclub.com/experimental.asp (http://www.jockeyclub.com/experimental.asp)

[FastG45]

Well we are getting down to it now, after this weekend you should really know something. Baring someone coming out of the Lexington or the Derby Trial, this weekend should determine who's in and who's out.

My biggest concern right now is if Dunkirk gets in. Big Drama's people said they are not running and will shoot for the Preakness. Dunkirk is at No. 18 on the Graded Money list and in a tie with Charitable Man, who runs in the Blue Grass. Theregoesjojo, General Quarters and Patena could still leapfrog Dunkirk this weekend. I assume Square Eddie will run in the Derby, no matter how crazy, without the benefit of any prior races at 3, although he might drop out last minute.

I also assume that Stardom Bound does not run. She might not even make the Kentucky Oaks after finishing third in the Ashland. The only purpose of entering her - and then presumably scratching - would be to keep a horse like Dunkirk out, eliminating one less rival for IEAH-owned Patena (who still needs more earnings to make the field) and co-owned I Want Revenge.

Quality Road could very well drop out. He has only galloped three times since he won the Grade 1 Florida Derby and he had a workout this morning in a slow 1:02.19. They put on a new patch over the crack and put in a drain before the work. He came back with some blood trickling from the quarter crack and a little heat in the hoof. Bottom line is he has missed a lot of valuable training time and he is still in New York. Any little quirk at this point in time could spell disaster.

Mack Robertson, trainer of Win Willy, said he wants verification that Win Willy is a quality colt in the Grade II Arkansas Derby. Therefore, according to Robertson, the son of Monarchos would need to finish first or second on Saturday in order to be taken on to the Kentucky Derby.

Several other's might drop out, have a change of heart, or Lord forbid, have a last minute injury. Here is my graded earnings list and is subject to change. Churchill keeps in all the horses who remotely could show up, including Stardom Bound. This list is not in order of the horses I like and I have the latitude to drop those I don't think will run, so I see the field shapping up like this:

1. r-Mafaaz $0 (but gets in through the win-and-you're-in Kempton race)
2. Regal Ransom $1,250,000
3. Pioneerof the Nile $1,193,250
4. Square Eddie $774,981
5. I Want Revenge $774,000
6. Desert Party $641,667
7. Quality Road $600,000
8. Friesan Fire $570,465
9. Musket Man $485,000
10. r-Terrain $410,830
11. West Side Bernie $385,160
12. Chocolate Candy $370,000
13. r-Old Fashioned $330,000
14. r-Hold Me Back $288,000
15. r-Win Willy $180,000
16. Giant Oak $169,256
17. r-Papa Clem $160,000
18. Dunkirk $150,000
19. r-Charitable Man $150,000
20. Mine That Bird $138,705
21. r-Theregoesjojo $133,063
22. r-General Quarters $130,645


r-runs Saturday

[FastG45]

As of today, the top four Beyer speed horses in the Derby off their last races are: Quality Road 111, Dunkirk 108, Friesan Fire 104, I Want Revenge 103.

In the last 12 Derbies, 10 winners went into the race sporting one of the top four Beyer speed figures. The only losers were the 50-1 bomb Giacomo and Monarchos, who did not make the top four but came in with a high 109.

[FastG45]

Dual Qualifiers Still Alive:


Square Eddie - back in

Pioneerof the Nile - dirt? 1/8 further? Gomez?

I Want Revenge - didn't beat much in NY this year, might look better then he really is, top four Beyer (#4)

Terrain - don't know if their going

Charitable Man - don't know if their going

Chocolate Candy - Mike Smith a plus, dirt? another 1/8, I think yes

West Side Bernie - could be running late for one of the top four spots

I think a Dual Qualifier has a good chance to win it this year.

[FastG45]

Derby Jocks,

It might be like musical chairs, who is going to commit to whos' horse?

Gomez on Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile? or someone else?

Eibar Coa won't commit to General Quarters or Musket Man, Julien Leparoux might get on General Quarters. Steve Bass, agent for Julien Leparoux, not only used to ride for McCarthy, but he had McCarthy as a teacher while in high school.

Mike Smith is happy with his new Derby mount, Chocolate Candy

Bejarano committed to Papa Clem

Edgar Prado gets Square Eddie

Anybody else know any Jockey news pertaining to the Derby?

[danstep43]

I still say DUNKIRK will win the derby...IMO what he did in a losing effort in the FLA derby is what I wanted to see given the way the track obviously played that day...I hope HOMEZ doesn't ride him....I'd rather have Robbie Davis' daughter ride him at this point

[scottsdad]

I still say DUNKIRK will win the derby...IMO what he did in a losing effort in the FLA derby is what I wanted to see given the way the track obviously played that day...I hope HOMEZ doesn't ride him....I'd rather have Robbie Davis' daughter ride him at this point

A RINGING ENDORSEMENT FOR ANGER MANAGEMENT CLASSES.

[danstep43]

thanks for the kind words partner:

Who I want to ride Dunkirk:
1. Johnny V
2. Mike Smith
3. Eibar Coa
4. Dominguez
5. HOMEZ

[FastG45]

Some of the Jocks that have commited or semi-commited:

Mike Smith - Chocolate Candy

Rafael Bejarano - Papa Clem

Joe Talamo - I Want Revenge

Kent Desormeaux - Hold Me Back

Gabriel Saez - Friesan Fire

John Velazquez - Quality Road

Garrett Gomez - Dunkirk

Frankie Dettori + Alan Garcia - 2 of the 3 possible terrorist horses, be interesting who Frankie picks

Eibar Coa - One of the Tampa Horses

I wonder who gets Square Eddie, West Side bernie and Pioneerof The Nile?

Still six horses not figured plus the ones above not commited

[deltasports]

The Following Jocks Will Ride "DUNKIRK"

#1 G Gomez

#2 G Gomez

#3 G Gomez

#4 G Gomez

# 5 G Gomez

To My Good Friend Dan>>>if "DUNKIRK" Gets In<GOMEZ Will Ride..::; ::; ::;

[deltasports]

Re: General Quarters & Musket Man


I Believe That Coa Will Ride The "general"

[FastG45]

Eibar Coa won't commit to General Quarters or Musket Man, Julien Leparoux might get on General Quarters. Steve Bass, agent for Julien Leparoux, not only used to ride for McCarthy, but he had McCarthy as a teacher while in high school.


Julien Leparoux has commited to General Quarters

I guess that leaves Coa on Musket Man

[FastG45]

Terrain - don't know if their going

Charitable Man - don't know if their going



Terrain was withdrawn from Derby consideration

Charitable Man has not been completely eliminated from Derby consideration

[danstep43]

The Following Jocks Will Ride "DUNKIRK"

#1 G Gomez

#2 G Gomez

#3 G Gomez

#4 G Gomez

# 5 G Gomez

To My Good Friend Dan>>>if "DUNKIRK" Gets In<GOMEZ Will Ride..::; ::; ::;

thanks Gene....was there a #6????? I personally can't stand GG....wouldn't mind if he started back hanging with P. Val a little......

[FastG45]

Flying Private is definitely in, said trainer D. Wayne Lukas

Mr. Hot Stuff on the Bubble, Trainer Eoin Harty and owners WinStar Farms are holding out hope that Mr. Hot Stuff will gain a place in the Kentucky Derby,

"If he gets in the Kentucky Derby, we'll take a shot," Harty said of Mr. Hot Stuff. "I'm training him like he is going to the Derby. If not, we'll go to plan B."

[FastG45]

I wonder who gets Square Eddie

Prado is on Square Eddie in the Coolmore Lexington S. (G2)

The Square Pants horse was my first pick for the Derby back in Sept.

Depending on how he wins the Lexington, he might be a big factor in the Derby

[FastG45]

Frankie Dettori + Alan Garcia - 2 of the 3 possible terrorist horses, be interesting who Frankie picks


Mafaaz is out and Frankie is not coming.

I guess Alan will get first call on the two that are left

[FastG45]

The Birds are comming to the Derby, pretty funny, sounds like an Alfred Hitchcock movie.

Mine That Bird - #18 on Graded Money list

Summer Bird - #21 on list, might not get in, I think he is the best of the two Birds

Only a few more to go before we know the whole field

[sdi1958]

It's disturbing - While everyone is non comittal on anyone but the obvious. The only thing that stands out in my mind is - Quality Road has issues. I have (1) in the tank - Old Fashioned, but (1) that is VERY live Desert Party. Your all very track worthy in knowledge - but does anyone really think that the probable favorite can waltz into CD w/o a work over the track and win the biggest race in his life off of works in NY.
You can have him - you can have Dunkirk, you can also have I want Revenge.
It will be a party in the "DESERT", or a party on the "Nile".
SDI1958

[FastG45]

Quality Road, Dunkirk, I want Revenge.
It will be a party in the "DESERT", or a party on the "Nile".


I agree with you on I want Revenge, and Quality Road.

I still like Dunkirk, and I'm not sure about the Desert, as for Nile, I think in their last race, if Chocolate Candy doesn't go wide and it's another 1/8th longer then I think Candy runs him down.

Still a lot of time to figure them and watch their works and something could still happen to any of them before the race.

Can't wait for the big day!!! This is a very good year for horse racing.

[FastG45]

The Following Jocks Will Ride "DUNKIRK"

"DUNKIRK" Gets In<GOMEZ Will Ride..

I can't believe it, Gomez is on NILE, What the ****

Who gets Dunkirk? Edgar Prado?

Oh well, as of now I'm on Chocolate Candy, another 1/8 th he takes out NILE, and if he takes to the CD surface it might be all she wrote.

[FastG45]

Giant Oak is out, moving Summer Bird into the top 20

Charitable Man is out

Bittel Road is out

The Filly Justwhistledixie was late-nominated to the Triple Crown, I think you can take her off the list. You never know what her people might do last minute

Still waiting to see if both Godolphin runner's will go, I think both will but they might scratch one of them

Theregoesjojo is out

That is all

[FastG45]

Alan Garcia is on Regal Ransom

Ramon Dominguez is on Desert Party

Corey Nakatani is scheduled to ride Mr. Hot Stuff, might get off him and ride Square Eddie

[FastG45]

Stewart Elliott rides West Side Bernie

West Side Bernie galloped 1 7/8 miles with trainer Kelly Breen in the saddle.

No trainer has served as the exercise rider for a Derby Winner since Don Combs got on Dust Commander in 1970 and Johnny Longden the year before on Majestic Prince.

Robby Albarado will ride Flying Private for the first time in the Derby.

Calvin Borel has picked up the mount on Mine That Bird

[deltasports]

LARRY JONES GETS ON FREISEN FIRE ,OLD FSHION,HARD SPUN etchh)

[FastG45]

LARRY JONES GETS ON FREISEN FIRE ,OLD FSHION,HARD SPUN etchh)

I know some trainers get on their horses all the time but I said no trainer has exercised a DERBY WINNER since Don Combs

Hard Spun came in second.

[FastG45]

KENTUCKY DERBY 2009


Chocolate Candy – Dual Qualifier(4th) - February 6, 2006 –
(USA) b. C, 2006 DP = 7-1-11-1-0 (20) DI = 2.08 CD = 0.70
Jerry Hollendorfer - Mike Smith

Desert Party - April 25, 2006 –
(USA) b. C, 2006 DP = 5-2-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 1.00
Saeed bin Suroor - Ramon Dominguez –

Regal Ransom -May 26, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 6-3-14-0-1 (24) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.54
Saeed bin Suroor - Alan Garcia –

Dunkirk- January 23, 2006 –
(USA) gr/r. C, 2006 DP = 9-13-16-0-2 (40) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.68
Todd Pletcher - Edgar Prado

I Want Revenge - Dual Qualifier(3rd) - March 26, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 5-8-13-0-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69
Jeff Mullins - Joe Talamo

Musket Man -May 10, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 5-1-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 1.10
Derek Ryan – Eibar Coa

Square Eddie – Dual Qualifier(1st) - April 4, 2006
(CAN) ch. C, 2006 DP = 10-2-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 1.00
Doug O'Neill - Corey Nakatani

Papa Clem - February 13, 2006 –
(USA) b. C, 2006 DP = 9-4-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.92
Gary Stute - Rafael Bejarano

Pioneerof the Nile - Dual Qualifier(2nd) - May 5, 2006
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 8-7-5-0-2 (22) DI = 3.89 CD = 0.86
Bob Baffert - Garrett Gomez

Quality Road - March 23, 2006
(USA) b. C, 2006 DP = 7-3-11-1-0 (22) DI = 2.38 CD = 0.73
Jimmy Jerkens – John Velazquez

Hold Me Back - April 18, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 5-6-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44 CD = 0.80
Bill Mott – Kent Desormeaux -

Mine That Bird - May 10, 2006 –
(USA) b. G, 2006 DP = 8-3-5-0-0 (16) DI = 5.40 CD = 1.19
Bennie Woolley - Calvin Borel

West Side Bernie - Dual Qualifier(5th) - February 18, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 3-3-6-2-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.50
Kelly Breen - Stewart Elliott

Summer Bird - April 7, 2006 –
(USA) ch. C, 2006 DP = 4-4-7-1-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.69
Tim Ice - Chris Rosier

Win Willy - April 1, 2006 –
(USA) gr/r. C, 2006 DP = 11-5-8-0-0 (24) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.13
McLean "Mac" Robertson - Cliff Berry

General Quarters - March 7, 2006 –
(USA) gr/r. C, 2006 DP = 5-8-9-2-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.67
Tom McCarthy - Julien Leparoux

Friesan Fire – Foaled April 30, 2006
(USA) b. C, 2006 DP = 5-12-17-0-0 (34) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.65
Larry Jones - Gabriel Saez

FLYING PRIVATE - March 7, 2006 –
(USA) b. C, 2006 DP = 15-11-14-0-2 (42) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.88
D. Wayne Lukas – Robby Albarado

Mr. Hot Stuff – February 27, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 4-1-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.64
Eoin Harty – No Rider

Advice - February 10, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83
Todd Pletcher – No Rider

Join in the Dance - March 26, 2006 –
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2006 DP = 5-4-14-1-0 (24) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.54
Todd Pletcher – No Rider

Flat Out - March 21, 2006 –
(USA) b. C, 2006 DP = 13-5-12-0-0 (30) DI = 4.00 CD = 1.03
Charles Dickey – No Rider

Advice has not committed, Join in the Dance is 21st on the Graded Money List and Flat Out is 22nd. If Advice drops out then Join in the Dance is in. Anybody else drops out then Flat Out is next in line.

This list is not in any particular order.

[Demetrio V]

Thanks; You do a good job in informing us of things in the racing world. I do enjoy your comment except for the last few on some of the other members of the site.LBJ use to say when there was a different of op with some people "Lets sit down and reason togeather". mabe now is the time . thanks a:

[ironmikejones]

1 contender to watch out for imho is summer bird. might not win but will be coming on strong down the stretch. a definate play in the exotics

[Jay bohn]

I like Mr. Hot Stuff for a longshot, 2 races back I liked the way he finished. He blew right by The Pamplemouse about 50 feet past the wire, he should love the added distance and may be one of those horses that explode when switching to dirt. I still like Dunkirk for the win but this horse will be in my exotics.

[FastG45]

Anyone catch Friesan Fire's workout this morning? Five furlongs in 57.86 seconds, could be one of the horses on the front end since QR is out. Papa has speed too if he wants to use it. Got to start figuring who is the speed in the race and who might go to the front.

Candy had the second best work this morning (59.24 seconds) 5f.

That is all

[FastG45]

John Velazquez will pick up the mount on Mr. Hot Stuff

[FastG45]

Technicallty speaking Horses that are still 2yr olds going into the Derby:

Regal Ransom -May 26, 2006 - 23 days short

Musket Man -May 10, 2006 - 8 days short

Pioneerof the Nile- May 5, 2006 - 3 days short

Mine That Bird - May 10, 2006 - 8 days short

Top five most mature Horses:

Dunkirk- January 23, 2006

Chocolate Candy - February 6, 2006

Advice - February 10, 2006 (If He Goes)

Papa Clem - February 13, 2006

West Side Bernie - February 18, 2006

[FastG45]

Atomic Rain will be Dunkirk's rabit

That is all

[FastG45]

Atomic Rain will be Dunkirk's rabit


My mistake, I 'm sorry, I thought Atomic Rain was another Pletcher horse.

Then I thought no, Rain is trained by Breen, West Side Bernie's trainer.

Then I thought he will be Bernie's rabit, then I said, that's stupid, you don't need a rabit in the Derby, someone is always out in 1:10 or so and then they're in the way of the rest of the contenders

[diamondjoe]

My mistake, I 'm sorry, I thought Atomic Rain was another Pletcher horse.

Then I thought no, Rain is trained by Breen, West Side Bernie's trainer.

Then I thought he will be Bernie's rabit, then I said, that's stupid, you don't need a rabit in the Derby, someone is always out in 1:10 or so and then they're in the way of the rest of the contenders

You had me confused for a minute. But I do like Westside Bernie, so if he has a posible rabbit......
Another possible rabbit scenario is Regal Ransom for Desert party, but being that Desert Part is drawn 19, and not much in the way of speed exists, I wouldn't be surprised if Regal Ransom tries to wire the field.

[diamondjoe]

Anyone catch Friesan Fire's workout this morning? Five furlongs in 57.86 seconds, could be one of the horses on the front end since QR is out. Papa has speed too if he wants to use it. Got to start figuring who is the speed in the race and who might go to the front.

Candy had the second best work this morning (59.24 seconds) 5f.

That is all

The speed will probably be regal ransom. He and his stablemate crushed the uae derby field by 15 lengths, with regal ransom winning wire to wire.

[FastG45]

A good article about the Derby from the point of view of a Vet.

Talks about Oxygen and Hooves, kinda of interesting, a different point of view

http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/mine-that-oxygen-a-vets-take-on-the-derby/