overlays

[trifecta mark]

I read in one of my texts this weekend that "odds on" low priced favorites are generally underlays on top of exotics but overlays in the the two hole in large fields. I believe they were speaking of exactas...but it made me think. Wouldn't that apply to superfectas as well. As a loosely interpeted rule...restict play on "odds on" to the two hole in supers unless you have a longer shot key that you think will surprise and hit the board? Cost on these tickets is a factor since they all have a low probability of actually hitting.

[Steve]

Trifecta Mark,

One of my favorite plays in the Superfecta is to box an odds on--PROVIDING--I think the horse may hit under the win in the other spots. The ticket not using the top spot is $180.00 and I can't tell you how many supers I have cashed, but they are many.

Now, I know that is a lot of money and there are many ways to narrow the contenders down, however, it has worked for me so many times I would be unlucky if I changed my style (I think).

Steve
TW

[trifecta mark]

Thanks for your response. Love the feedback. Learning more about expert handicapping and wagering strategy is a good thing! Unless i am doing $1 exacta boxes for fun just to pass the time with some "action" on races I really can't find an "edge" in...I never box. I don't like to play "underlays" that don't pay enough for the actual high risk/low probability {say the two top choices one/two} or combinations that don't have an equal chance of coming in. The very nature of a "box' is equal weight and equal probability. I don't believe that exists in a mathematical sense. My experience has taught me that longshots of 10-1 or more that I favor for some handicapping reason come in underneath usually. {possible 2,3 or 4 hole} If I actually think they can win outright...I play the win pool. No reason to go elsewhere. Medium priced horses with some credentials that are favored by the conditions today are the ones that beat the vulnerable chalk generally so I have become fairly strict about it in multi-horse exotics. No matter if i am throwing $35 dollars at a race or $100. Money management is key. It takes a bit more time and effort constructing the exotic tickets using keys...but over a year's time i don't want to throw extra units away. I wish i would be electronically shocked every time i placed an "underlay" bet in my combinations :) ha! We all know that there is some chaos and racing luck involved ...so of course I occasionally miss a ticket where i have ALL the entries that hit the board not boxed {it upsets me sometimes but the result is usually the lowest possible payout} ....but i think it is imperative to play the upside at the paramutual game witha 20% plus takeout. You need patience and some dicipline....but being a long term winner in this game is not easy. In fact it is very very difficult.

[diamondjoe]

It is true that any combonations with a heavy favorite on top are usually overbet by the public. One thing I like to do if the heavy favorite is hard to look past, is use the quinella instead. If you like you can add a couple of bucks to your investment and bet a straight $2 exacta(as opposed to the box) with the higher priced horse on top plus the $2 quinella. That way, if the higher priced horse does win, you a much bigger roi on the exacta bet plus some extra pocket change from the quinella. Even if the favorite does win, you still make a solid roi on the quinella. If the price is right, you can also bet the higher priced horse on the nose, for even more of a profit.
Another good way to play exactas, is to play a short of "pyramid style wheel. You take your 2 most likely winners, and put both on top, and underneath, along with a third horse(preferably a shorter priced horse.
for example. if you like horsed 1 & 2 with horse 3 being a short priced favorite or one that figures below the top two, it would look something like this: 1,2 with 1,2,3
this is a very cheap $4, which pays out quite well,especially if you first 2 fininsh one two at good prices which happens quite often.
Tri's work the same: 1,2 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4 for an $8 investment.
supers are: 1,2 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 for a $16 investment. I haven't had quite as much success with the later two, as they are a bit more unpredictable, but if you use the 10cent and 50cent wagers, you can still try your luck with a minimun investment.
Anyways good luck, and be sure to PM me if you make a life changing score.bc(

[ken]

I understand your method. Do have any rule of thumb to estimate a quinella payoff vs. a box exacta?