Steve
01-14-2006, 09:00 PM
I am in hope that these reminders will help those who need them. I am not smart enough to have invented any of these basic approaches. Some have a small twist as I have tweaked a few things that have helped me. In my opinion, these types of approaches will benefit those who are having difficulty isolating a horse to win.
For those people I would say if you insist on wagering and are losing then give this play some thought. It will give you action and excitement in at least three races at the track. As you may know many tracks have rolling pic 3’s so look for the one (s) that meet the guidelines below.
There are two many situations to describe that can set up this play. A simple one may be two cheap claiming races before an allowance race that has the top trainer and top rider as the ML favorite in the last leg. While playing a win bet on the allowance horse is definitely a bad value and wager. It may not be a bad pic 3 play. Think about it. One horse is likely selected for you and it’s possible to go very deep in the first two legs and end up with a profit. It happens. Back check a few at your Track of choice and see. The pic 3 may be your ticket to turn things around.
Below is something I wrote several years ago for a newsletter and likely is Old Hat to many of you. While many people have written about similar methods, a question I still get asked a lot is how (or if) I play the pic 3's. My guess is that there are a few here who could be reminded of this wager and the proper approach.
PIC 3 METHODOLOGY
Best Wagering scheme for the Pic 3
Consider:
Best Wagering scheme for the Pic 3
Consider:
Your 1st choice x 3 x 3 = $9
3 x Your 1st Choice x 3 =$9
3 x 3 x Your 1st Choice =$9
________
Total $27.00
By using your first choice in all three legs -if you are right- you will capture and win 3 Pic 3’s!
You can add as many horses as necessary in each different leg (increasing the amount of the ticket), but you should always attempt to isolate your key horse with the other two legs regardless of how many horses you use in the other legs. Your goal will be to cash all three tickets.
HOW I PLAY MY SELECTIONS IN THE PIC 3
The first step is that I put my potential selections in three columns:
A B C
I put all my top rated picks in Column “A” All the horses that I consider a threat to Column A horses go in Column “B”. Finally, any long shot that I consider goes into Column “C”.
In some races I only have horses in “A” and in other races I have horses in all three columns.
Example:
Leg 1
A
B
C
2
2
1 = 5 Possible
Leg 2
A
B
C
2
1
0 = 3 Possible
Leg 3
A
B
C
3
2
1 = 6 Possible
In this example there are 5 x 3 x 6 possible selections to win.
It would cost $90 ($1 Pic 3) to buy this particular ticket to seek just one winning ticket that only pays one half of a Pic 3. Bad Deal!
Instead I want to have multiple tickets. First, I will play the combination listed above using my top ranked horse in each leg for the $27 play.
I then play combinations of horses using horses from each column. Below is a partial example of some combinations:
Combinations:
1
A-A-B
2
AB-AB-AB
3
A-A-C
4
AC-AC-AC
5
A-B-B
6
AA-AA-AAA
7
A-B-C
8
AA-AA –AC
If I were only able to get the selections down to 1 or 2 favorites then I would likely deduce that others would also, therefore killing the pool.
On the other hand if 5 is the best number I can come up with in a race then the race is very contentious and may set the way for a monster payout. Remember that I limit myself to those Pic 3 races, which appear to contain false favorites in two of the legs.
Another way to define my columns after handicapping the races is to put all the top rated Speed Horses in each leg of the Pic 3 in column “A”.
Then Class Horses in another, and finally any other important handicapping factor at my track in the last column. After playing several combinations of the columns as in the examples listed above I have caught and cashed many tickets.
I only do this if one area such as speed seems to be dominating. Mixing class and late speed in several tickets with speed (if that is the dominate factor) often pays very well.
For the most part this mixing bet with speed etc. is fun and best played when well ahead. I mention it only as a fun bet rather than a primary bet. No mixture can take the place of sound handicapping methods.
I would also imagine that you have your finger on value as you compute each ticket. Don’t get caught up with the mix so much that you spend $100 attempting to win a ticket and end up with either less than you wagered or nothing. Always consider value.
Consider this Pic 3 12-09-2003 at Philadelphia:
In the 8th race beginning leg of the Pic 3 I had 4 possibles in my columns.
2 in A,
1 in B,
1 in C
In the 9th race I had 5
and in the 10th I had only 1 in the A column.
Leg 1 possibilities were heavy so I figured the payout may be decent, but the bullet in the 10th worried me. I considered that maybe many others decided to play an ALL-ALL-with the bullet and lower the take.
My thoughts were that with the bullet in the last leg a winning ticket would pay about $250.00. One other Leg was difficult in that the favorite appeared fit and ready, but I thought he might be a little short, consequently making him a possible false favorite. A close call, but I eventually convinced myself that he could get beat today.
Take Note….
Our handicapping has convinced us that in a Pic 3 we believe that only one leg will be won by the favorite and best of all worlds it is the last leg. Better yet we like the horse in the last leg so much we will not back any other horse other than this bullet.
Now what do we do? We look for VALUE. In other words how can we maximize our profits? What is the most we are willing to wager against what we possibly can get in return. Will the possible profit be worth the risk?
In the end when I considered the risk versus the possible take I decided on the following wager:
4 x 5 x 1= for $20.00
I felt comfortable that going 4 and then 5 deep excluding a false favorite would cash so I bought multiples. The winning horses paid:
$12.40--$71.40--$3.80 the Pic 3 paid $1,027.00 for a $2 ticket.
My “B” horse paid $71.40 to win, but at the time I had no idea that any horses in my mix would go off with those type of odds. Sometimes you just never know…
For those people I would say if you insist on wagering and are losing then give this play some thought. It will give you action and excitement in at least three races at the track. As you may know many tracks have rolling pic 3’s so look for the one (s) that meet the guidelines below.
There are two many situations to describe that can set up this play. A simple one may be two cheap claiming races before an allowance race that has the top trainer and top rider as the ML favorite in the last leg. While playing a win bet on the allowance horse is definitely a bad value and wager. It may not be a bad pic 3 play. Think about it. One horse is likely selected for you and it’s possible to go very deep in the first two legs and end up with a profit. It happens. Back check a few at your Track of choice and see. The pic 3 may be your ticket to turn things around.
Below is something I wrote several years ago for a newsletter and likely is Old Hat to many of you. While many people have written about similar methods, a question I still get asked a lot is how (or if) I play the pic 3's. My guess is that there are a few here who could be reminded of this wager and the proper approach.
PIC 3 METHODOLOGY
Best Wagering scheme for the Pic 3
Consider:
Best Wagering scheme for the Pic 3
Consider:
Your 1st choice x 3 x 3 = $9
3 x Your 1st Choice x 3 =$9
3 x 3 x Your 1st Choice =$9
________
Total $27.00
By using your first choice in all three legs -if you are right- you will capture and win 3 Pic 3’s!
You can add as many horses as necessary in each different leg (increasing the amount of the ticket), but you should always attempt to isolate your key horse with the other two legs regardless of how many horses you use in the other legs. Your goal will be to cash all three tickets.
HOW I PLAY MY SELECTIONS IN THE PIC 3
The first step is that I put my potential selections in three columns:
A B C
I put all my top rated picks in Column “A” All the horses that I consider a threat to Column A horses go in Column “B”. Finally, any long shot that I consider goes into Column “C”.
In some races I only have horses in “A” and in other races I have horses in all three columns.
Example:
Leg 1
A
B
C
2
2
1 = 5 Possible
Leg 2
A
B
C
2
1
0 = 3 Possible
Leg 3
A
B
C
3
2
1 = 6 Possible
In this example there are 5 x 3 x 6 possible selections to win.
It would cost $90 ($1 Pic 3) to buy this particular ticket to seek just one winning ticket that only pays one half of a Pic 3. Bad Deal!
Instead I want to have multiple tickets. First, I will play the combination listed above using my top ranked horse in each leg for the $27 play.
I then play combinations of horses using horses from each column. Below is a partial example of some combinations:
Combinations:
1
A-A-B
2
AB-AB-AB
3
A-A-C
4
AC-AC-AC
5
A-B-B
6
AA-AA-AAA
7
A-B-C
8
AA-AA –AC
If I were only able to get the selections down to 1 or 2 favorites then I would likely deduce that others would also, therefore killing the pool.
On the other hand if 5 is the best number I can come up with in a race then the race is very contentious and may set the way for a monster payout. Remember that I limit myself to those Pic 3 races, which appear to contain false favorites in two of the legs.
Another way to define my columns after handicapping the races is to put all the top rated Speed Horses in each leg of the Pic 3 in column “A”.
Then Class Horses in another, and finally any other important handicapping factor at my track in the last column. After playing several combinations of the columns as in the examples listed above I have caught and cashed many tickets.
I only do this if one area such as speed seems to be dominating. Mixing class and late speed in several tickets with speed (if that is the dominate factor) often pays very well.
For the most part this mixing bet with speed etc. is fun and best played when well ahead. I mention it only as a fun bet rather than a primary bet. No mixture can take the place of sound handicapping methods.
I would also imagine that you have your finger on value as you compute each ticket. Don’t get caught up with the mix so much that you spend $100 attempting to win a ticket and end up with either less than you wagered or nothing. Always consider value.
Consider this Pic 3 12-09-2003 at Philadelphia:
In the 8th race beginning leg of the Pic 3 I had 4 possibles in my columns.
2 in A,
1 in B,
1 in C
In the 9th race I had 5
and in the 10th I had only 1 in the A column.
Leg 1 possibilities were heavy so I figured the payout may be decent, but the bullet in the 10th worried me. I considered that maybe many others decided to play an ALL-ALL-with the bullet and lower the take.
My thoughts were that with the bullet in the last leg a winning ticket would pay about $250.00. One other Leg was difficult in that the favorite appeared fit and ready, but I thought he might be a little short, consequently making him a possible false favorite. A close call, but I eventually convinced myself that he could get beat today.
Take Note….
Our handicapping has convinced us that in a Pic 3 we believe that only one leg will be won by the favorite and best of all worlds it is the last leg. Better yet we like the horse in the last leg so much we will not back any other horse other than this bullet.
Now what do we do? We look for VALUE. In other words how can we maximize our profits? What is the most we are willing to wager against what we possibly can get in return. Will the possible profit be worth the risk?
In the end when I considered the risk versus the possible take I decided on the following wager:
4 x 5 x 1= for $20.00
I felt comfortable that going 4 and then 5 deep excluding a false favorite would cash so I bought multiples. The winning horses paid:
$12.40--$71.40--$3.80 the Pic 3 paid $1,027.00 for a $2 ticket.
My “B” horse paid $71.40 to win, but at the time I had no idea that any horses in my mix would go off with those type of odds. Sometimes you just never know…